The Hill’s 12:30 Report — Washington in a standstill as Arizona, Nevada results trickle in

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

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TALK OF THE MORNING

Me to Arizona and Nevada rn:

Georgia’s Senate race is officially headed to a runoff on Dec. 6, and ballots in Arizona and Nevada are still being counted. For control of the Senate, either party needs to win two of the remaining three seats.

Meaning: If the parties split Nevada and Arizona, it will be Georgia’s runoff that determines the Senate majority.

In Arizona: 70 percent of the votes have been tabulated. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is up by 5 points against Republican Blake Masters.

In Nevada: 83 percent of the votes have been counted. Republican Adam Laxalt has a slight 1.8-point edge over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.).

Updated results from The New York Times

Tidbit: FWIW, the betting markets think Democrats have a better shot at controlling the Senate. More from Barron’s 

WHERE THE RACE FOR THE HOUSE STANDS:

Republicans are inching closer to winning control of the lower chamber. Republicans have won 207 House seats so far; Democrats have won 189. Whoever reaches 218 seats wins control of the House. For context: Roughly 40 or so House races have still not been called, depending on the news outlet. List of where those races stand

It’s Thursday! We’re all on edge as the country waits for election results. I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

📉 News this morning 

Inflation is dipping a bit:

Consumer prices rose at a slower pace last month, down from an annual inflation rate of 8.2 in September to 7.7 in October.

What economists had expected: An annual inflation rate of 7.9 percent in October.

More of the numbers — and what this means for the economy, via The Hill’s Sylvan Lane

🗳 Election updates 

CONTROVERSIAL REP. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-COLO.) IS IN AN UNEXPECTED NAIL-BITER:

Boebert is trailing Democrat Adam Frisch by 64 votes (!) with 98 percent of ballots counted.

Keep in mind: This was not considered a toss-up race.

^ FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich retweeted a thread about why this race likely won’t be called without a recount. Read the explainer 

SIGHTS AND SOUNDS:

Check out The New York Post’s cover today: Hint: It portrays Trump as Humpty Dumpty. The New York Times’s Maggie Haberman tweeted the cover and added, “This is a rather stark pivot.”

Guess what time the last voter in Ann Arbor, Mich., cast their ballot?: At 2:05 a.m. (!) after waiting in line for six hours. Full story from The Michigan Daily

WOW, THIS IS A WILD THROWBACK: 
C-SPAN’s Howard Mortman tweeted a clip from the last time a president held a press conference right after the midterms. I.e.: Trump in 2018. Watch

📝 Midterm takeaways 

Trump tried to cry foul, but it hasn’t worked this time:

“As voters cast ballots largely without incident on Tuesday afternoon, former president Donald Trump took to social media to declare that a minor, already rectified problem with absentee balloting in Detroit was ‘REALLY BAD.’ ”

But the reaction was different this time: “Unlike in 2020, when similar cries from the then-president drew thousands of supporters into the streets — including to a tabulating facility in Detroit and later to the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 — this time, no one showed up.”

What happened this time?: “Election officials said they believed the relative normalcy resulted from a combination of concerted effort on the part of well-prepared poll workers and voters, as well as the fact that some of Trump’s loudest supporters were less potent than they had claimed.”

How Trump’s influence is shifting, via The Washington Post’s Rosalind S. Helderman, Patrick Marley and Tom Hamburger 

WINNERS AND LOSERS:

Winners: President Biden, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and abortion rights activists

Mixed: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and election denialism

Losers: Former President Trump and Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.)

Reasoning for each, from The Hill’s Niall Stanage 

REACTIONS AND DEBRIEFS:

‘How Democrats Used the Abortion Debate to Hold Off a Red Wave’: From The New York Times’s Lisa Lerer and Elizabeth Dias 

‘How Trump, infighting and flawed candidates limited Republican gains’: From The Washington Post’s Michael Scherer, Josh Dawsey, Hannah Knowles, Isaac Arnsdorf and Tyler Pager 

‘GOP points fingers after red wave fails to materialize’: From The Hill’s Alexander Bolton 

What this means for President Biden in 2024: Via The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Alex Gangitano

‘How Fetterman toppled Oz’: From The Hill’s Al Weaver

⁉️In Congress 

A big question — does this change Pelosi’s decision to retire?

Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) who has served as the Democratic leader for two decades, had been rumored to be planning to retire at the end of this term.

But Tuesday’s strong Democratic showing may change that calculus a bit: “The unexpectedly strong turn for House Democrats in Tuesday’s elections has strengthened Pelosi’s hand as questions churn around her political fate, according to sources on and off of Capitol Hill. The party’s good night, many Democrats said afterwards, means Pelosi can remain the top leader — if she so chooses.”

Even if Republicans win control of the House?: Yes, the so-called red wave never materialized

A Democratic lawmaker noted that: “Pelosi’s ability to raise money for the party — more than $1.2 billion since she entered leadership — is unprecedented in Congress, and gives her outsized leverage to decide her own political fate.”

What Dems are saying about Pelosi’s political future, via The Hill’s Mike Lillis 

MEANWHILE IN THE GOP — ‘DISAPPOINTED HOUSE GOP REELS AHEAD OF CHOOSING NEXT LEADERS’:

“House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who is tasked with getting House Republicans elected, both want to move up the ranks in the next session, but both risk becoming targets of GOP anger about the midterms.” How the GOP leadership elections may play out, from The Hill’s Emily Brooks

📆 Looking to 2024 

DESANTIS MAY FACE MORE PRESSURE TO RUN AGAINST TRUMP:

Many Republicans think Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)] is a stronger general election candidate than former President Trump to run against President Biden or whomever the Democratic presidential nominee may be.

The pressure DeSantis is likely to face, via The Hill’s Brett Samuels 

‘6 REASONS WHY TRUMP’S ALREADY BAD LEGAL TROUBLES ARE ABOUT TO GET WORSE’:

From Politico’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein

⛈ Hurricane Nicole

Nicole didn’t like the attention Florida was receiving without her this week, so she showed up:

AP/Rebecca Blackwell

Nicole made landfall as a hurricane early Thursday morning but has weakened to a tropical storm.

Where is Nicole now?: “R​adar shows bands of soaking rain rotating across northern and central Florida this morning.”

The full forecast and radar from The Weather Channel 

Wow, check out all the sea foam in St. Augustine, Fla., from the storm: Video from WCCB’s Kaitlin Wright 

Video of the storm in Hollywood Beach: From @MBurgosNews

🦠 The COVID-19 numbers

Cases to date: 97.6 million

Death toll: 1,068,667

Current hospitalizations: 21,818

Shots administered: 640 million

Fully vaccinated: 68.5 percent of Americans

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets 

Out with the scaffolding, in with the spiffy new paint job:

Bloomberg’s Erik Wasson tweeted, “In other news scaffolding is out of the US Senate’s main Ohio Clock corridor after new paint job completed.” Photo

⏱On tap 

The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C.

• 9:30 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing.

• 3 p.m.: Biden and Harris deliver remarks at a political event at The Howard Theatre in Washington, D.C. First lady Jill Biden and second gentleman Doug Emhoff also attend.

• 9:25 p.m.: Biden leaves for Egypt.

All times Eastern.

📺What to watch

• 12:45 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and national security adviser Jake Sullivan hold a press briefing. Livestream 

🧁 In lighter news 

Today is National Vanilla Cupcake Day.

And to briefly pull you out of midterm vote tabulation land, here’s a little girl who is sick of her dog’s “ridiculous” barking.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.