The Hill’s Morning Report — Democrats bet on big names, big bucks in Pa. Senate race

President Biden is working to help Democrats win next month in a Pennsylvania all-drama-all-the-time Senate contest.

This discouraging quote gave the West Wing pause on Wednesday: “Fetterman’s team never should have agreed to this debate. He still clearly has serious health issues.“

It was just one of many downbeat assessments offered by Democratic operatives and nervous analysts, referring to the Tuesday night debate between Democratic Senate contender Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke he suffered five months ago, and Republican surgeon Mehmet Oz, the TV-savvy celebrity intent on a new career in Washington.

The Monday morning quarterbacking about Fetterman’s faltering debate presentation amid a high-stakes contest elevated Democrats’ anxieties about Senate control next year. Other toss-up contests are in Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. The Pennsylvania debate between the 6-foot, 9-inch Fetterman, whose speech is occasionally halting and imperfect, left viewers focused on his health and distracted from one Oz gaffe in which the physician said abortion decisions should be left to women, doctors and “local political leaders,” noted The Hill’s Al Weaver.

Biden and Vice President Harris will be in Philadelphia on Friday for a rare campaign appearance as a duo to try to help Fetterman defeat Oz (The Hill). The president and vice president will headline a political reception for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party as the lieutenant governor’s lead hovers within the margin of error, according to polls.

“I don’t think there’s anything Joe Biden or Kamala Harris can do at this point to help the party in the midterm elections,” said one Democratic strategist (The Hill).

Biden directed the Democratic National Committee on Tuesday to immediately transfer an additional $10 million to the House and Senate Democratic campaign arms and offered an additional $8 million for the two groups through fundraising ahead of Election Day, Politico reported. Aides to Biden believe Senate control hangs on the results in Pennsylvania and Georgia.

And speaking of the Peach State, a second unidentified woman claims that Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker, who assures Georgia voters he is staunchly opposed to abortion, drove her to a clinic in the 1990s for an abortion against her wishes, The Daily Beast reports. Walker is challenging Sen. Raphael Warnock (D).

In a Georgia election interference probe stemming from 2020, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows must appear before a grand jury, a judge in South Carolina ruled on Wednesday (NBC News and CNN). Meadows was a North Carolina congressman before going to work for former President Trump. He now lives in South Carolina.

▪ The Atlantic: The Fetterman-Oz debate was a Rorschach test.

▪ ABC News: The Fetterman-Oz debate sparked much discussion about “ableism” in politics.

▪ The New York Times explored how people with disabilities viewed the lieutenant governor’s auditory and speech deficits.

▪ Politico: Biden’s low job approval ratings weigh on undecided voters, but they still might vote for Democrats: poll.

▪ The Hill: Trump will hold a rally in Latrobe, Pa., three days before Election Day to help Oz and Doug Mastriano, the GOP candidate for governor who is trailing Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro (CBS News). Biden previously scheduled a Philadelphia appearance on Nov. 5 to boost Fetterman along with former President Obama (The Hill).

Related Articles

▪ The New York Times: The Justice Department wants to force two Trump White House lawyers to testify to a grand jury about Jan. 6, 2021, events to try to pierce Trump’s privilege claims.

▪ Semafor and The Hill: New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is under federal investigation again.

▪ Roll Call: House Republicans scrutinize Biden with a restored legislative oversight tool known as resolutions of inquiry.

▪ The Washington Post: Meet the mega-donors pumping millions into the 2022 midterms.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ MORE POLITICS

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, some pivotal Senate races are tightening, writes The Hill’s Al Weaver — and not just the three contests widely considered key to control of the chamber next year. Republicans assert a potentially decisive surge of momentum in the New Hampshire Senate race.

At noon, New Hampshire Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and Republican challenger Don Bolduc are scheduled to debate, broadcast by New Hampshire PBS and New Hampshire Public Radio (information HERE).

Recent surveys show that Democrats are narrowing gaps in Wisconsin and Iowa; the GOP is still favored in both Senate races.

“Do I think it’s going to be close? Yes. Do I think some people may be taking it for granted? Possibly,” one Wisconsin GOP operative told The Hill. “Democrats are outspending Republicans on the airwaves in the final weeks, which is not ideal. … [Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)] is still the favorite, but it’s going to be close.”

Trump will head to Iowa on Nov. 3 to stump for longtime Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), just days before voters head to the polls (The Hill).

Meanwhile, in Washington, 30-year incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) is facing an unexpectedly tough challenge from Republican Tiffany Smiley, prompting Democrats to add millions in television spending to boost her race, in a sign that the party is employing a take-no-chances approach even in a solidly blue state.

A Seattle Times poll from last week showed Murray’s lead over Smiley slipping slightly, to 49 percent against Smiley’s 41 percent. In July, Murray led Smiley 51 to 33 percent (Politico).

Harris attended a fundraiser for Murray in Seattle on Wednesday, where she said that when they both served in the Senate, Murray “would be the voice to speak up and say, ‘Hey, this is a moment where we need to have the courage to fight.’”

The Seattle Times: Harris, in Seattle, touts electric school buses, infrastructure bill.

In Nevada, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is the most at-risk incumbent in the upper chamber and her race against Republican Adam Laxalt has been affected by the rising cost-of-living in the state. Higher expenses impact a key Democratic constituency, white-collar and working-class voters, particularly Latinos, who are urged to vote by the powerful Culinary Union.

Working-class voters of color have been reliable Democratic supporters in recent years, but they are among the hardest hit by rising rents, gas prices and grocery bills. Democratic strategists worry that they may not vote, or that the GOP can win them over because of it (Politico).

“If Democrats can’t win in Nevada, we can complain about the white working class all you want, but we’re really confronting a much broader working class problem,” a national Democratic pollster told Politico. “We’re struggling with them, regardless of race.”

▪ The Hill: Latinos break overwhelmingly for Democrats in Nevada Senate, governor’s races, poll shows.

▪ The New York Times: Cortez Masto, the Senate’s most at-risk Democrat, fights to hang on in Nevada.

▪ Roll Call: Laxalt questions why Biden isn’t in Nevada for Cortez Masto.

▪ NBC News: In Nevada, national Republicans exude optimism over Senate takeover: “People are fed up.”

▪ Axios: Supreme Court Justice Elena Kagan on Wednesday granted a stay to temporarily block a Jan. 6 House committee’s subpoena for an Arizona GOP leader’s phone records.

Arizona is one state in which Democrats claim success in holding the Latino vote, pointing to grassroots outreach ahead of and then during election years. Latino voters aren’t monolithic, and vote differently depending on age, religion, gender and cultural background. But in Arizona, which has long been considered a Republican stronghold, regular and community-focused outreach is helping Democrats spread their message (The New Republic).

“There’s been active participation in terms of voter registration, political activation, people really understanding how to talk to the community here, how to get them out,” said Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.). “And I think that has made the biggest difference why you don’t see the slide that’s happening in other states.” Gallego is mulling a 2024 primary challenge against Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D).

From castration to communists, from election fraud to the great replacement, from “animals” and doctored photos to partial-birth abortion, Spanish-language disinformation percolating ahead of the midterm elections is seeking to cast doubt on the validity of the U.S. voting process, write The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch and Rafael Bernal, while pushing a number of false narratives from fringe conservative media.

Axios and The Seattle Times: Facebook parent company Meta faces a $24.7 million fine for campaign finance violations in Washington state.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

Russia warned the West on Thursday that commercial satellites from the United States and its allies could become legitimate targets if they were involved in the war in Ukraine. A senior foreign ministry official told the United Nations that Western nations were trying to use space to enforce their dominance (Reuters).

The comments are the latest in Russian disinformation efforts, leading back to false claims about the need to stamp out Nazism in Ukraine made even before Russia’s February invasion. But now the Kremlin is switching tactics, instead arguing it is battling terrorism in the country and falsely accusing Ukraine of planning a dirty bomb attack (The New York Times).

“They seem to have decided on a talking point that this is a counterterrorism operation now,” Kyle Walter, who leads the U.S. investigation team at Logically, told the Times.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks has repeated the unfounded allegation, which Western and Ukrainian officials have dismissed as a “pretext for aggression” (Reuters and CNBC).

“We’re concerned,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News. “Russia has a track record of projecting, which is to say accusing others of doing something that they themselves have done or are thinking about doing. But there, again, we’ve communicated very clearly and very directly to the Russians about trying to use this false allegation as a pretext for any kind of escalation on Russia’s behalf.”

▪ The New York Times: Putin repeats unfounded accusations that Ukraine was planning to detonate a bomb designed to spread radioactive material. Washington warned that Moscow could be trying to create a pretext for its own attack and has labeled Russia’s assertions as disinformation.

▪ Reuters: An abandoned Russian base holds secrets of retreat in Ukraine.

▪ The New York Times: War in Ukraine likely to speed, not slow, shift to clean energy, IEA says.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has postponed the presentation of a promised new budget plan until mid-November.

Sunak, who took office Tuesday, inherited an economy facing recession at a time when interest rates are being raised to tame double-digit inflation, while low growth and rising borrowing costs have worsened the strain on public finances.

“I have been honest,” Sunak told parliament Wednesday. “We will have to take difficult decisions to restore economic stability and confidence” (Reuters).

At least 15 people were killed Wednesday in Iran in an attack on a Shi’ite Muslim shrine in Shiraz, according to state news agency IRNA, while security forces elsewhere clashed with protesters marking 40 days since the death of Mahsa Amini.

Amini, 22, died after being arrested by the country’s morality police for improper dress. Her death sparked widespread anti-government protests across Iran that have been met with harsh crackdowns (Reuters).

The New York Times: Thousands in Iran mourn Mahsa Amini, whose death set off protests.

After Saudi Arabian leaders pushed to slash oil production despite a visit from Biden, U.S. officials have been left fuming that they were duped, The New York Times reports.

OPINION

■ No, Latinos aren’t abandoning the Democratic Party, by Dana Milbank, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3TGwiQb

■ Indians have good reason to celebrate Rishi Sunak, by Mihir Sharma, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion. https://bloom.bg/3Dcu6cn

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 YOU’RE INVITED: Have a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights? The Hill has launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House meets at 10 a.m. on Friday for a pro forma session. Members are scheduled to return to the Capitol on Nov. 14. ​​

The Senate convenes at noon for a pro forma session. Senators make their way back to Washington on Nov. 14.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 9 a.m. Biden will ​travel to Syracuse, N.Y., to speak at 3:30 p.m. at Micron’s plant about the U.S. manufacture of semiconductor chips, aided by the recently enacted CHIPS Act. He will fly to his home in New Castle, Del., departing Syracuse at 5:15 p.m.

Vice President Harris is in Washington and has no public events scheduled.

Blinken will be in Canada today and Friday. He is in Ottawa to meet with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at 5:05 p.m. and with Foreign Minister Mélanie Joly earlier in the day. He will have dinner with Trudeau and Joly at 6 p.m. Blinken plans to visit a community center that helps Ukrainian refugees, accompanying Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and Joly at 11:30 a.m. The secretary and Joly plan a joint press conference at 2:35 p.m. While in Ottawa, the secretary also will meet with African Union Commission Chairperson Moussa Faki at 4:15 p.m.

Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will travel to Mercedes, Texas, to visit Texas Tropical Behavioral Health Center to lead a roundtable discussion at 9:30 a.m. CT about federal investments in mental health in the Rio Grande Valley. The secretary will visit Nuestra Clinica del Valle at 11:30 a.m. CT for a roundtable with Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) about the Inflation Reduction Act and healthcare savings for seniors.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will fly to Cleveland and join Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) for a roundtable discussion with manufacturers and a tour of the new headquarters of the Manufacturing Advocacy and Growth Network. Yellen will speak about Biden’s economic agenda at 11:20 a.m. The secretary will have lunch with local elected officials and meet with local business leaders at the Greater Cleveland Partnership.

Economic indicator: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will report at 8:30 a.m. on U.S. gross domestic product in the third quarter. Also at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department reports on filings for unemployment benefits in the week ending Oct. 22.

ELSEWHERE

➤ ECONOMY 

Analysts this morning await the government’s report on gross domestic product in the third quarter, expecting to see growth instead of the contraction that appeared during the first two quarters of this year (Quartz). The favorable numbers may be timely ahead of the midterm contests, but economists warn that the report could be a one-hit wonder that overstates momentum in a U.S. economy that is slowing (CNN).

Amid high prices, rising mortgage rates and downbeat forecasts of higher unemployment and recession, most Americans didn’t notice the months of robust growth (The Washington Post).

“Is the economy out of the woods? No,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America and former Trump White House economic adviser, wrote in a recent note to clients reported by the Post. “The economy frequently generates healthy gains in real GDP around the onset of recession. Indeed, this has happened in four out of the last six downturns.”

On Wednesday, Biden said he wants to help cash-strapped Americans by forcing the elimination of billions of dollars a year in “junk” fees charged by businesses for goods and services including bank overdrafts, airline and hotel booking fees and cable selections. He said such hidden fees are too high and “unfair” to consumers (The Hill).

The independent government arm tackling the project, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, is under fire in the courts and has been a long-running target for criticism among big banks and conservatives in Congress.

Economists have examined various GOP proposals aimed at taming inflation but few believe Republican ideas to cut taxes would help. Conservatives have told voters they want to reduce government spending and make permanent parts of the 2017 Republican tax reductions that are set to expire over the next three years — including incentives for corporate investment and lower taxes for individual filers. They want to repeal corporate tax increases enacted in August while also gutting new enforcement funding for the Internal Revenue Service (The New York Times).

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

Administration officials worry pandemic exhaustion could lead to a bad COVID-19 winter, as temperatures drop and people increasingly spend more time indoors. Projections show that tens of thousands of Americans could die needlessly this winter if they don’t get free coronavirus vaccine shots or treatments, leading the White House to develop a “fall playbook” to proactively combat a potential surge.

The administration plans on enlisting Walgreens, DoorDash and Uber to provide free delivery of antiviral prescriptions, and will focus on convincing vulnerable Americans, including seniors, to get vaccinations and booster shots (The Washington Post).

“As a country … we have a choice to make,” Biden said, before rolling up his left shirt sleeve to get a COVID-19 booster shot Tuesday. “We have a much better winter, if we use all the tools we have available to us now.”

Information about COVID-19 vaccine and booster shot availability can be found at Vaccines.gov.

▪ Bloomberg News: New COVID-19 boosters aren’t better than old ones, researchers at Columbia University and the University of Michigan find.

▪ The Washington Post: For those still trying to duck COVID-19, the isolation is worse than ever.

The Hill’s Chia-Yi Hou unpacks everything you need to know about respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) symptoms and transmission as cases rise. Positivity rate for testing has been around 10 to 15 percent in recent weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While adults with RSV can have symptoms of the common cold, babies and young children can develop more serious illnesses including pneumonia.

RSV can survive on hard surfaces, such as tables and railings, for many hours and for shorter periods of time on surfaces such as tissues and skin. Families should take note that touching surfaces can lead to transfer of the virus. “If they’re touching their nose and touch a surface and somebody comes and touches that surface, and then their nose or eyes, they might get it if they’re not immune to it,” said pediatric infectious disease specialist Benoosh Afghani at the University of California Irvine.

“This year we are seeing a lot of RSV already and I don’t think we have peaked yet,” Afghani added. “I think in the next few weeks we’re going to see a peak.”

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,069,449. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,566 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

The World Health Organization today updated its COVID-19 data, reporting that new cases dropped by 15 percent in the week ending Oct. 23, with more than 2.6 million new cases of coronavirus infections reported worldwide. The number of new deaths decreased by 13 percent as compared to the previous week, with more than 8,500 fatalities reported and tied to the virus. In total as of Oct. 23, countries have reported 624 million cases of COVID-19 infection and more than 6.5 million deaths globally. The number of infections is likely much higher because of testing and self-reporting challenges.

THE CLOSER

Take Our Morning Report Quiz

And finally … It’s Thursday, which means it’s time for this week’s Morning Report Quiz! Inspired by the rise of yet another British head of government this week, we’re eager for some smart guesses about U.K. prime ministers past and present.

Email your responses to asimendinger@thehill.com and/or kkarisch@thehill.com, and please add “Quiz” to subject lines. Winners who submit correct answers will enjoy some richly deserved newsletter fame on Friday.

Who was the youngest prime minister to assume office in Britain?

1. Rishi Sunak

2. Liz Truss

3. The Duke of Grafton

4. William Pitt the Younger

Which monarch holds the record for most prime ministers serving during her/his reign? 

1. Queen Victoria

2. Queen Elizabeth II

3. King George III

4. King George V

Which British prime minister served the longest?

1. Winston Churchill

2. Benjamin Disraeli

3. Robert Walpole

4. Robert Peel

To officially begin as head of government, U.K. prime ministers must ___?

1. Be welcomed by the monarch

2. Address both houses of parliament

3. Send a letter to Buckingham Palace

4. Ring the doorbell at 10 Downing Street

Stay Engaged

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