The Hill’s Morning Report — How much power has Putin lost?

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As Russia continues to dominate headlines across the globe, there are questions about President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power and what internal upheaval in Moscow means for the war with Ukraine.

Putin spoke about Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s short-lived weekend rebellion for the first time Monday, calling it an “armed mutiny.”

“Any kind of blackmail is doomed to failure,” Putin said in the video, per translations from NBC News. He also called the mercenaries’ rebellion a “colossal threat” and said it “is precisely what the neo-Nazis in Kyiv and the West wanted.”

Russian authorities closed the investigation into Prigozhin early today, Russian state media reported. While Prigozhin’s exact whereabouts are unknown, he has been exiled to Belarus amid a deal struck with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (Bloomberg News).

Despite Putin’s assertions about quashing the rebellion, he emerged from the aftermath of the insurrection with a shakier control over his country, fueling questions about how long he can maintain his power, writes The Hill’s Brad Dress. Prigozhin’s march toward Moscow with thousands of troops behind his back was the strongest challenge to Putin’s leadership yet.

Prigozhin, meanwhile, said in an 11-minute video statement Monday that “We started our march because of an injustice,” and claimed that the Russian military had planned to absorb the Wagner Group fighters into their ranks. He said his troops were met with cheering crowds waving the flag of his Wagner Group fighters, adding that he halted his weekend campaign because he didn’t want to spill Russian blood and because the goal was protest, not regime change.

If Russian troops had marched on the first day of the invasion as far as his Wagner troops marched in 24 hours, Prigozhin said the war that has stretched to more than 16 months would have ended in one day. Ukraine in the past three weeks has recaptured approximately 115 square miles of land Russia had occupied, which is more territory than Russia seized in its entire winter offensive, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Monday (USA Today and The Associated Press).

President Biden said Monday that the U.S. and its allies made clear to Moscow that they were not involved in the uprising over the weekend (CBS News).

“They agreed with me that we had to make sure we gave Putin no excuse — let me emphasize, we gave Putin no excuse — to blame this on the West, to blame this on NATO,” Biden said. “We made clear that we were not involved. We had nothing to do with it. This was part of a struggle within the Russian system.”

Ahead of the rebellion, U.S. intelligence officials were able to gather an extremely detailed and accurate picture of Prigozhin’s plans, including where and how Wagner was planning to advance, CNN reports. But the intelligence was so closely held that it was shared only with select allies and not at the broader NATO level. Within the U.S., only the most senior administration officials as well as the Gang of Eight members of Congress, who have access to the most sensitive intelligence matters, were briefed on the matter.

“Putin of 10 years ago would have never allowed this to play out the way it did,” Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman and Gang of Eight member Mark Warner (D-Va.) said Monday on CNN’s “Inside Politics.”

▪ The New York Times: His glory fading, a Russian warlord took one last stab at power.

▪ CNN analysis: The West must now consider the possibility of a Russian political collapse.

▪ The New York Times: With Wagner’s future in doubt, Ukraine could capitalize on the chaos.

Ukrainian forces can look to take advantage of the Wagner Group’s short-lived armed rebellion, analysts said, with confusion among Russia’s military leadership expected to considerably weaken their war effort. Tony Brenton, former British ambassador to Russia, said the Wagner mercenary group had been the most effective component of Russia’s military in Ukraine to date (CNBC).

“The fact that, apparently, Prigozhin is now out of [the war] and maybe Wagner is also out of it will weaken Russia’s performance on the battlefield,” Brenton told CNBC’s “Street Signs Europe” on Monday.

The Wagner mutiny has also bolstered the cause of defense hawks in Congress who are pressing for more money for Ukraine despite a strict cap on defense spending set by the debt-limit deal, the Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports. Critics of U.S. support for the war in Ukraine argued that it was an open-ended drain on U.S. resources, but the weakness of Putin and the Russian military revealed by the aborted coup has shown just how much of an impact Western support for Ukraine and the grinding war has had on Putin’s grip on power.

▪ The Hill: The U.S. and allies have major concerns about the consequences of Russia’s instability, even as the chaos raises opportunities to strengthen Ukraine’s position diplomatically and militarily.

▪ Politico EU: West after Wagner rebellion: Talk softly and help Ukraine carry a bigger stick.

▪ Reuters: Mapped: 36 hours and hundreds of kilometers of the mercenary mutiny in Russia.

▪ Al Jazeera: Disbelief, anger: Russians struggle to process the Wagner revolt.

▪ The Washington Post: Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko’s unlikely cameo as mediator with Russia’s Wagner mercenaries.

© The Associated Press / Prigozhin Press Service | Wagner Group mercenary Yevgeny Prigozhin in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on Saturday.

Related Articles

▪ The Atlantic: In standing by Putin, Chinese leader Xi Jinping signals just how high a priority he has made of undermining the power of the West.

▪ Reuters: U.S. and Swedish prosecutors are studying a graft complaint naming the son of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

▪ Axios: Congress sets limits on staff ChatGPT use.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ POLITICS

Lawmakers and candidates are being pressed to react to events in Russia and some have foreign policy speeches on their itineraries this week.

They’re also watching the Supreme Court for the final flurry of rulings in the term, as well as the continuing repercussions of last year’s court ruling that sent abortion rights to the states.

Democrats and reproductive rights advocates want to expand access to contraception, eager to focus voter attention on GOP opposition ahead of the 2024 elections, reports The Hill’s Nathaniel Weixel. Polling shows there is broad bipartisan support for birth control, but advocacy groups say they are not taking chances, pointing to conservative Justice Clarence Thomas’s writing in 2022 that the Supreme Court should reconsider whether there’s a constitutional right to contraception.

EMILY’s List, the abortion-rights advocacy group that has endorsed Biden, is running a national TV ad about reproductive rights, which features the vice president.

Former President Trump has declined to make his position on abortion crystal clear for fear that support of a ban would be toxic in a general election, reports The Hill’s Niall Stanage. But it does allow some rivals to get to his right on the issue in the GOP primary.

2024 roundup: 🎧 Listen to key 2021 audio evidence of Trump acknowledging his possession of classified information at Mar-a-Lago, which he later told the government he did not have (CNN). … A federal judge set July 14 to determine how classified materials will be handled during the Justice Department’s prosecution of Trump (CNN). … GOP presidential contender and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who will campaign in New Hampshire today, made a “stupid” error, according to Republicans in the Granite State (Politico and The Hill). … Trump’s co-defendant and personal aide, Walt Nauta, is expected to enter a plea in federal court today in Florida in the classified documents case. His boss, the former president, has pleaded not guilty (KCRA3). … GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley at 10:30 a.m. speaks at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington about the U.S. and China. … Delaware state Sen. Sarah McBride (D), 32, the country’s highest-ranking transgender elected official, announced her candidacy Monday to become Delaware’s next sole House member. She could become the first trans person elected to federal office, if she clears a primary and wins the seat (Delaware Online).

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ SUPREME COURT

© The Associated Press / Patrick Semansky | Supreme Court in November.

The Supreme Court on Monday cleared the way for Louisiana to draw a second majority-Black congressional district. The justices had previously paused a lower ruling that mandated the state redraw its map, but the court then sat on the dispute as it considered a similar case in Alabama. In a major, surprise ruling earlier this month, the court struck down Alabama’s map by ruling it likely violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the power of Black voters (The Hill).

Justices declined Monday to hear a case involving a charter school dress code, leaving intact a lower court’s decision that a school’s policy must be changed that required girls to wear skirts (The Hill).

The high court on Monday tossed as moot its earlier decision to hear a case on whether Democratic lawmakers should have been able to sue to obtain documents related to a Washington, D.C., hotel Trump owned during his presidency. Congressional members dismissed the lawsuit last month. After the high court last month agreed to hear the Biden Justice Department’s appeal in the case, Democrats dismissed the dispute in a lower court (The Hill).

▪ The Hill: Borrowers brace for the Supreme Court decision on student loan debt forgiveness.

▪ The Hill: Five high court rulings to watch.

➤ ADMINISTRATION

© The Associated Press / Evan Vucci | President Biden at the White House on Monday.

In 1981, then-President Ronald Reagan embraced the term “Reaganomics,” used by his critics to denigrate his low-tax, pro-free-market, less-government agenda as heartlessly “trickle down” when it came to Americans who languished near the bottom of the ladder.

During an event with newspaper editors, Reagan, then a new president, came to the defense of Reaganomics, arguing his policies would take time to produce benefits. He shared a political cartoon he liked because it favored patience for his policies. It lampooned “those people that want instant results for changes in something that have taken several decades to be installed here in government,” he told journalists.

Reagan’s overall budget approach proved popular with most Americans, cleared Congress by August of 1981 and shaped his presidency on the way to a booming economy three years later (Gallup). Although critics questioned how much Reaganomics contributed to economic growth — and still bash the long-term economic consequences — the budget was considered a legislative triumph for Reagan, according to Gallup.

Biden, racing this week through reelection fundraisers in a suburb of Washington, Chicago and New York City, plans to pitch his economic agenda as “Bidenomics” during a Wednesday speech. His White House and campaign advisers describe his approach as the opposite of “the failed trickle-down policies of the past,” hoping that Democrats and working families envision Biden’s ambitions amid a period of high inflation as a net positive compared with what the Democratic Party skewers as the harmful Reagan policies of 42 years ago.

Bidenomics means what, you may ask? “Critical investments in the American people,” is a description used by the president’s communications team. Previous Biden iterations were called Build Back Better, Investing in America and the Inflation Reduction Act. Analysts at the left-leaning Brookings Institution in Washington posit that Bidenomics can help unite America. In November, Forbes wrote that Bidenomics won the midterm elections. Whatever the definition, the president is expected to deploy the shorthand.

The Hill: The White House goes all-in on Bidenomics.

On Monday, the president kicked off a three-week effort to break through the news clutter and Americans’ summer preoccupations to try again to package and push his pro-worker, pro-middle-class approach into voters’ consciousness, in a favorable way.

He pledged that every household in the nation would have high-speed internet access by 2030 using cables made in the U.S., thanks to a $40 billion federal investment. “But it’s not enough to have access — you need affordability and access,” the president said at the White House, adding that his administration is working with service providers to bring down costs on what is now a household utility — like water or gas — but often remains priced at a premium (The Associated Press).

The administration wants every Democrat in Congress to champion some key provisions of a $1.2 trillion infrastructure law, enacted last year, and the $1 trillion Inflation Reduction Act, which became law almost a year ago under intense Republican opposition. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) described the high-speed internet funding his state expects to receive, hailed “once-in-a-generation investments” and said in a statement Monday that Biden’s internet achievement is larger than former President Franklin Roosevelt’s Rural Electrification Act. Wiring all U.S. homes for electricity happened when Biden was 6 years old.

Pluribus News: How much each state gets in federal broadband grant money.

OPINION

■ The century-old roots of Russia’s latest mutiny, by Jessica Karl, columnist, Bloomberg Opinion.

■ Donald Trump has a 2024 math problem, by Mick Mulvaney, opinion contributor, The Hill.

WHERE AND WHEN

📲 Ask The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House will meet at 9 a.m. for a pro forma session; lawmakers return July 11 to the Capitol.

The Senate will convene on Thursday at 10 a.m. for a pro forma session. Members return to Washington on July 10.

The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will travel to Chevy Chase, Md., to speak during two campaign fundraisers, one at 5:15 p.m. and another at 6:45 p.m. He will return to the White House tonight.

Vice President Harris is in Washington and has no public events.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets at 8:45 a.m. with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan at the George P. Shultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center, followed at 9:25 a.m. with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov. Blinken at 10 a.m. is scheduled to meet with both foreign ministers at the training center.

The White House daily press briefing is scheduled at 1 p.m.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will be in Aspen, Colo., to speak during an Aspen Ideas Festival panel about countering antisemitism at 10:20 a.m. MDT. Emhoff will lead a roundtable discussion at 12:30 p.m. MDT at Plato’s Restaurant in Aspen with “academics and stakeholders” to discuss the U.S. National Strategy to Counter Antisemitism.

Former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) and occasional Biden adviser and author Jon Meacham join other speakers at 2:45 p.m. MDT in Aspen, Colo., for a panel discussion at the annual Aspen Ideas Festival.

ELSEWHERE

➤ HEALTH & WELLBEING

An experimental drug called retatrutide from Eli Lilly could eventually outperform similar drugs to become the best-selling drug of all time because of its potential for significant weight loss in patients. It is undergoing Food and Drug Administration trials and helped people lose, on average, about 24 percent of their body weight, the equivalent of about 58 pounds, the company said Monday from the American Diabetes Association’sannual meetingin San Diego. The findings were simultaneously published in The New England Journal of Medicine (NBC News).

Meanwhile, scientists say efforts to develop the next generation of COVID-19 vaccines are running up against bureaucratic hassles and regulatory uncertainty, which could make it harder to curb the spread of the coronavirus and arm the U.S. against future pandemics.

After months of delay, the White House has now addressed a shortfall in funding, hurrying to disburse the first major grants from a $5 billion program to expedite a new class of more potent and durable shots. But the program is facing the reality that vaccine development, after being shifted into high gear early in the pandemic, has returned to its slower and more customary pace (The New York Times).

Separately, the administration launched an effort to address cancer disparities stemming from poverty (The Hill). Some research will focus on how reducing obesity, improving nutrition, increasing physical activity, quitting smoking and improving living conditions through supplemental income influence cancer rates and outcomes.

▪ The New York Times: How the shortage of a $15 cancer drug is upending treatment.

▪ The Hill: Former chief White House medical officer Anthony Fauci, whose expertise is infectious diseases and HIV/AIDS, will join the Georgetown University faculty following his recent retirement from the National Institutes of Health.

▪ Axios: Health workers start to feel optimism about industry, poll finds.

▪ NPR: Crowdfunding for medical debt is less successful for minority patients.

➤ STATE WATCH

In June, Farmers Insurance announced it will no longer write new policies in Florida, citing in a memo “catastrophe costs… at historically high levels.” Earlier in the month, AIG stopped issuing policies along the Sunshine State’s hurricane-vulnerable coastline. The insurance industry is increasingly wary of the risks presented by climate and natural disasters, prompting major firms to scale back their presence in some vulnerable states (The Hill).

▪ Vanity Fair: Can anyone fix California?

▪ NBC News: The vice president made a surprise visit to New York City’s Stonewall Inn. The historic Manhattan gay bar was the site of a 1969 uprising that’s widely considered a turning point in the modern LGBTQ rights movement.

Two weeks ago, it was expected the burned-out section of I-95 in Philadelphia would be a traffic nightmare for months after the elevated section of the highway had collapsed on June 11 when a tractor trailer flipped over and caught fire. Instead, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) unveiled a temporary fix Friday that reopened the six lanes to traffic. “We showed them good government in action,” Shapiro said. “This is what we can do when government at all levels comes together to get the job done.”

If the speed of this project is proof of “good government in action,” it is not necessarily an easily replicable one. The reconstruction of I-95 enjoyed obvious advantages over most other infrastructure projects, especially ambitious efforts such as installing wind turbines or building a new subway line — and its unique circumstances shed a light on why other infrastructure projects are saddled with considerably bigger hurdles (The Atlantic).

THE CLOSER

© The Associated Press / Sarasota Dolphin Research Program | Bottlenose dolphins swim in open waters off Sarasota Bay, Fla.

And finally … 🐬 It’s not just parents of human babies pitching their voices higher and babbling when they talk with their offspring. A new study published Monday found that female bottlenose dolphins change their tone when addressing their calves.

Researchers recorded the signature whistles of 19 mother dolphins in Florida, when accompanied by their young offspring and when swimming alone or with other adults. Every bottlenose dolphin produces its own unique signature whistle, which other dolphins can recognize — the closest thing any animal has to a human name (The Atlantic and The Associated Press).

“They use these whistles to keep track of each other. They’re periodically saying, ‘I’m here, I’m here’,” study co-author Laela Sayigh, a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution marine biologist in Massachusetts, told the AP.

But when directing the signal to their calves, the mother’s whistle pitch is higher and her pitch range is greater than usual — the dolphin version of baby talk.

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