Historian famed for election predictions says Trump will lose

"My final prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George H.W. Bush in 1992 to lose reelection," Lichtman said. While Trump's chances still looked promising at the end of 2019, according to his model, the plunging of the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic and nationwide racial justice protests in 2020 may seal his fate.

"Never before in the history of the United States has the party holding the White House suffered such a sudden and dramatic reversal of fortune in just a matter of a few months," Lichtman said. But, he added, Republican voter suppression tactics aimed at minorities and young people, as well as Russian interference could skew the election results.