Historian Timothy Ash anticipates a 1-2% increase in GDP as Ukraine eyes EU membership
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Ukraine’s potential accession to the European Union, as projected by historian Timothy Ash, may catalyze a 1-2% surge in GDP growth, marking a transformative milestone for the country that has grappled with a lack of reform momentum since 1991, hindering its progress.
“The only thing Ukraine lost after 1991, which largely explains its lagging behind since then, is the absence of a reform anchor,” the expert said.
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“Now it has two: support from the IMF, and EU accession. The latter is of great importance and truly transformative for Ukraine. It was the case for all former communist countries that joined the EU, from Estonia to Romania.”
“In my opinion, EU accession will add 1-2% to the country’s annual growth trend,” he added.
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Ash also discussed the resilience of the Ukrainian economy, suggesting that it might even surpass the expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and grow by more than 5% this year.
“I would attribute a larger part of the recent growth to the strength, courage, and innovation of Ukrainians, and this makes me very optimistic about Ukraine’s long-term growth trajectory after the conclusion of the war,” Ash said.
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The European Council decided to initiate negotiations on the accession of Ukraine and Moldova to the European Union, granting candidate status to Georgia on Dec. 14.
According to a source from the entourage of European Council President Charles Michel, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban left the room at the moment when EU leaders adopted the decision to start negotiations with Ukraine on EU accession.
This move in Brussels is referred to as “constructive abstention,” allowing important decisions to be made without the participation of some members – “if someone is absent, it means they are not present,” according to the Brussels parlance.
The decision to initiate negotiations with Ukraine on EU accession contains no additional conditions, said Deputy PM for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna.
Read also: Zourabichvili thanks Zelenskyy, Ukrainians after Georgia gets status of candidate for EU membership
The European Council’s decision to approve the start of negotiations for Ukraine and Moldova’s accession to the EU was warmly welcomed by the United States on Dec. 15.
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