History favors a white Christmas. Here's the 2023 outlook for Southern Tier, Western NY

Neal Simon, Binghamton Press & Sun Bulletin
Updated ·3 min read

Yearning for a holiday "where the treetops glisten?"

For residents in the Southern Tier and Western New York, it is likely that dream will come true, at least based on decades of weather history.

The current December forecast, however, might throw a curve ball.

Officially, the U.S. National Weather Service considers it a white Christmas if there is one inch or more of snow. Since snow depth is measured in whole inches, if there is over a half-inch or more on the ground, it's considered an inch.

Upstate New Yorkers looking for a white backdrop to their holiday are usually in luck. Much of New York is in a group that includes the Upper Midwest states, Maine, the Allegheny Mountains, the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada with a high probability of seeing a white Christmas, according to National Centers for Environmental Information.

The interactive NCEI Historic Christmas Snow Probability Map for the country shows a locality's chance of having an inch of snow on the ground Christmas Day. Its most recent map, published Dec. 6, shows Angelica with a 60% chance of an inch of snow on the ground, Corning at 52%, Elmira at 40% and Binghamton at 57%.

Binghamton area: History favors white Christmas

Receiving a substantial Christmas Day snowfall in Binghamton happens from time to time, but it’s not a common occurrence for the 2021 Golden Snowball winning city.

The heaviest Christmas Day snowfall for the Binghamton area since 1951, was the nearly 13 inches that fell on Dec. 25, 2002.

The second highest snowfall for Christmas Day was 8.8 inches in 1978, according to Weather Service records.

More: Snow days are complicated. This is how Southern Tier superintendents make the call

That's a far cry from communities further west, on the edge of Lake Effect snow bands, like Wellsville and Alfred, where 18 inches and more than two feet of snow, respectively, fell on those Allegany County towns on Christmas Day 1978.

So while most Broome County Christmas Days historically don’t see multiple inches of the white stuff pile up, that doesn’t mean its snow free.

Here are some Binghamton Christmas snow facts, from National Weather Service data:

  • More than 60% of Christmas Days in the Binghamton area have an inch or more of snow on the ground.

  • 19% of Christmas Days have an inch or more of snowfall (or about one in every five years)

  • 52% of Christmas Days see more than a trace of snowfall (or about once every two years)

Climate Center: Warmer than normal in next 14 days

Will the weather cooperate and deliver a white Christmas? Early signs point in the opposite direction.

Binghamton-based National Weather Service forecasts for the next seven-day period do not include much snowfall.

“There are no significant storms expected in the next week or so (and) right now we don’t have too much snow on the ground here at the office," meteorologist Bryan Greenblatt said on Monday. "We have three inches on the ground from the system that just went through.”

The outlook from the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center, which does longer range forecasting, is for above average temperatures and slightly below average precipitation over the next eight to 14 days.

But there are no guarantees.

"A lot can change between now and then,” Greenblatt said, adding, “Even if you are little bit above normal (temperatures), you can still get some snowfall.”

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This article originally appeared on Binghamton Press & Sun-Bulletin: White Christmas in 2023? Here are the odds in NY's Southern Tier