History lessons: What to expect as GM Ryan Poles and the Chicago Bears swing for the fences in the 2023 NFL draft
A busy and pivotal offseason continues for the Chicago Bears as general manager Ryan Poles tries to make the most of the salary-cap space and draft capital he had for the rebuilding process.
Poles will face his most important test next week, navigating through 47 hours of draft commotion to solidify a roster many around the league still judge as one of the NFL’s least impressive.
That impression could start to change if the Bears can put together a top-notch draft class. They currently own 10 selections, starting with the No. 9 pick and continuing with two in the second round, one in the third, and two each in the fourth, fifth and seventh rounds.
So how much can Poles and the Bears accomplish over draft weekend? And what’s a realistic bar to set for draft success? Tribune writers Dan Wiederer and Brad Biggs studied the last 21 Bears drafts dating to the start of Jerry Angelo’s tenure as GM to calculate batting averages for the franchise — by round, by position, by year and by general manager.
The comprehensive evaluation helps to provide an understanding of how much the Bears can reasonably achieve in this draft.
The parameters
The Tribune set out first to define what classifies as a “draft hit,” which varies based on where a player was selected. After consulting with multiple league executives, we applied round-specific evaluation criteria to all 159 players the Bears have selected since 2002, determining whether each pick was a success.
Using baseball parallels, some players were deemed worthy of an extra-base hit designation — double, triple or home run.
The grades for 19 players still with the Bears on their rookie contracts are not final and were determined through a combination of production analysis and projection. Nine of those players left us uncertain enough to classify them as a “no at-bat,” unable to be labeled a draft success or an obvious miss yet.
That includes current starting quarterback Justin Fields, the No. 11 pick in 2021, who showed flashes of promise throughout last season. But while Fields has offered Chicago plenty of hope and reasons for justified optimism, the direction of his Bears career will become much more defined based on his play in 2023. Thus for now we’ve kept him in the “no at-bat” category.
Here are the definitions for “hits” at each level of the draft.
•Round 1, top 10: Long-term starter. Big-time impact player. Multiple Pro Bowl and/or All-Pro selections.
•Round 1, picks 11-32: Immediate starter. Significant production for a half-decade or longer.
•Round 2: Immediate contributor. Hopeful starter by the end of his rookie season. Building block/core piece for the long term. Consistent production.
•Rounds 3-4: Longer runway for emerging. Eventual contributor. Hopefully breaks through at some point as a starter with proper development.
•Rounds 5-6: Reliable depth piece. Valuable special teams contributor. Fills a specific role or niche.
•Round 7: Any notable contribution.
In our categorization below, we listed the hits in sequential order and the misses, whiffs and no at-bats alphabetically. “Whiffs,” in our judgment, were players considered bad misses based on how the Bears viewed them on draft weekend and what they produced.
Round 1
Hits: Tommie Harris (triple), Kyle Fuller (double), Roquan Smith (double), Kyle Long (double), Greg Olsen, Leonard Floyd and Rex Grossman.
Misses: Cedric Benson, Marc Colombo, Mitch Trubisky and Chris Williams.
Whiffs: Gabe Carimi, Michael Haynes, Shea McClellin and Kevin White.
No at-bat: Justin Fields.
Round 1 batting average/slugging: .467/.800.
Notes and nuggets
•Harris was the first defensive lineman off the board in 2004 when Angelo selected him at No. 14. He quickly emerged as an ideal three-technique tackle in Lovie Smith’s defense and was selected to his first Pro Bowl the next year. Harris began the 2006 season on a tear, named NFC defensive player of the week twice in the first four games, and became an engine for a defense that propelled the Bears to the Super Bowl. A severe hamstring injury near the end of the season sidelined him for the postseason. He was a three-time Pro Bowl selection.
•Olsen, drafted by Angelo with the No. 31 pick in 2007, finished his career with 742 catches, 8,683 yards and 60 touchdowns, production that is likely to draw Pro Football Hall of Fame consideration in two years. But only about a quarter of that production came with the Bears before the 2011 trade that sent him to the Carolina Panthers.
•The decision not only to draft Trubisky in 2017 but to trade up from No. 3 to No. 2 to get him was a declaration from then-GM Ryan Pace that he couldn’t possibly settle for another quarterback in the class. That turned out to be a colossal mistake with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, Patrick Mahomes, selected eight picks later. (Mahomes, it should be reiterated, was slotted in the Bears’ top cloud heading into that draft.)
•White was snakebitten through his four years with the Bears, with twice as many games missed because of injuries (50) as catches (25). He never scored a touchdown.
Round 2
Hits: Devin Hester (home run), Charles Tillman (home run), Matt Forte (triple), Alshon Jeffery (double), Cody Whitehair (double), Eddie Goldman (double), Cole Kmet, Jaquan Brisker, Tank Johnson, Jaylon Johnson, Danieal Manning and Stephen Paea.
Misses: Jon Bostic, James Daniels and Anthony Miller.
Whiffs: Dan Bazuin, Mark Bradley, Ego Ferguson and Adam Shaheen.
No at-bat: Kyler Gordon and Teven Jenkins.
Round 2 batting average/slugging: .632/1.211.
Notes and nuggets
•Upon drafting Hester with the No. 57 pick in 2006, Angelo billed the speedster out of Miami as a developing defensive back with a chance to have a significant impact on special teams. No one knew at the time Hester would become a four-time All-Pro, a member of the NFL’s All-Decade teams for the 2000s and 2010s, the league record holder in career return touchdowns and a likely Hall of Famer. Yep, solid pick.
•The inventor of “The Peanut Punch” arrived at Halas Hall as a well-kept secret in 2003. Tillman was a talented defensive back out of the Sun Belt Conference who admitted on draft weekend that he hadn’t expected to get drafted in the top 50. The Bears snagged him at No. 35 and touted his versatility, maturity and upside. Over a stellar 12-year career with the Bears, Tillman showed off his playmaking prowess with 36 interceptions, 42 forced fumbles and nine touchdowns.
•Chew on this NFC North balance-of-power draft tidbit: Phil Emery selected Ferguson at No. 51 in 2014 — 9 minutes before the rival Green Bay Packers used their second-round pick on wide receiver Davante Adams.
•The Bears traded up 13 spots on Day 2 of the 2021 draft as Pace said he wanted to get ahead of an anticipated run on offensive linemen. At No. 39, the Bears grabbed Jenkins, a mauling tackle whom Pace labeled as the best prospect on the board at a premium position. Heading into his third season, Jenkins has transitioned to guard and has durability questions after missing 15 games because of injury while playing more than 50% of the offensive snaps in just 11 games.
Round 3
Hits: Lance Briggs (home run), David Montgomery, Bernard Berrian, Earl Bennett, Dusty Dvoracek, Major Wright, Chris Conte and Terrence Metcalf.
Misses: Jonathan Bullard, Marcus Harrison, Velus Jones, Will Sutton, Roosevelt Williams and Garrett Wolfe.
Whiffs: Jarron Gilbert, Hroniss Grasu, Brandon Hardin, Juaquin Iglesias and Michael Okwo.
Round 3 batting average/slugging: .421/.579.
Notes and nuggets
•The Bears stole Briggs at No. 68 in 2003, one pick after the Houston Texans took linebacker Antwan Peek and two picks before the Arizona Cardinals grabbed linebacker Gerald Hayes. The Bears were looking for depth at the position and special teams help but wound up getting a tackling machine who would be selected to seven Pro Bowls in 12 seasons.
•The Bears were drawn to Hardin’s size and physicality on Day 2 of the 2012 draft, believing he could be an immediate special teams producer and a starting option at safety down the road. But Hardin — taken with the No. 79 pick, just four selections after Russell Wilson came off the board — suffered a neck injury during the preseason as a rookie, spent all of that year on injured reserve, then broke a shoulder blade in preseason action of his second season. He was released in August 2013.
•Conte is best remembered for one devastating play: a blown coverage that resulted in a 48-yard Aaron Rodgers-to-Randall Cobb touchdown pass in the final minute of the NFC North-deciding season finale in 2013. So how on earth was he considered a hit? As a late Round 3 pick in 2011, he started 52 games over four seasons with the Bears and had nine interceptions.
Round 4
Hits: Nathan Vasher (triple), Eddie Jackson (triple), Alex Brown (triple), Kyle Orton (double), Tarik Cohen (double), Henry Melton, Ian Scott, D.J. Moore, Nick Kwiatkoski, Corey Wootton, Craig Steltz, Todd Johnson and Deon Bush.
Misses: Ka’Deem Carey, Khaseem Greene, Joel Iyiegbuniwe and Jeremy Langford.
Whiffs: Josh Beekman, Deiondre Hall, Leon Joe, Riley Ridley, Evan Rodriguez, Brock Vereen and Jamar Williams.
Round 4 batting average/slugging: .542/.875.
Notes and nuggets
•Vasher led the NFL with eight interceptions and went to the Pro Bowl in 2005 and was a solid corner for much of his six seasons in Chicago. Brown ranks behind only Richard Dent, Steve McMichael and Dan Hampton on the Bears all-time sacks list with 42 over eight seasons. Both Vasher and Brown were starters on the 2006 Super Bowl team. Those are strong dividends from two players drafted outside the top 100.
•The Bears had extremely high grades on Orton from area scout Jeff Shiver in 2005 when they grabbed him to become their backup quarterback. With Rex Grossman sidelined by an ankle injury, though, Orton was pressed into duty as a rookie and made it work with only 1,869 passing yards and nine touchdowns in 15 starts (10-5 record) because he took care of the football while the Bears played to the strength of the roster: the defense and special teams. Orton was 21-12 as a starter before he was included in the package to acquire Jay Cutler. That level of success is one reason some veterans were rankled when he was traded.
•In seven drafts, Pace’s brightest moment may have come during a 30-minute span on Day 3 of 2017 when he landed Jackson, a playmaking safety from Alabama, and Cohen, an attention-grabbing bottle rocket out of North Carolina A&T. Both players became instant contributors as rookies and received All-Pro honors in 2018 as key playmakers for the NFC North champions. After disappointing 2020 and 2021 seasons, Jackson seemed to rediscover his top-tier ball-hawking skills last season.
Round 5
Hits: Adrian Amos (triple), Mark Anderson (double), Jordan Howard (double), Corey Graham (double), Darnell Mooney (double), Johnny Knox, Braxton Jones, Zack Bowman, Bilal Nichols, Kellen Davis and Bobby Wade.
Misses: Justin Gage, Bobby Gray, Craig Krenzel, Bryan Knight, Tron LaFavor, Jordan Mills, Kevin Payne and Kindle Vildor.
Whiffs: Claude Harriott, Airese Currie, Marcus Freeman, Joshua Moore, Jordan Morgan and Nathan Enderle.
No at-bat: Larry Borom, Trevis Gipson and Dominique Robinson.
Round 5 batting average/slugging: .440/.680.
Notes and nuggets
•Anderson lasted to the fifth round in 2006, part of a period when the Bears hit on several mid- and late-round picks. In a situational role as a third-down pass rusher, he thrived as a rookie with 12 sacks, finishing second in AP defensive rookie of the year voting behind Texans linebacker DeMeco Ryans. Elevated to a starting role in his second season, Anderson wasn’t as effective and finished with 21½ sacks in 66 games with the Bears.
•It can be argued that Pace and his staff were at their best drafting in Round 5 with Amos, Howard, Mooney and perhaps Gipson — all Day 3 picks who became difference-making starters or notable contributors.
•Mills really stumped us. As the No. 163 pick out of Louisiana Tech, he earned a starting role at right tackle in training camp as a rookie and is undeniably a football success story as he still was kicking around the league as recently as last summer. But Mills’ eight-team NFL voyage lasted just two seasons with the Bears.
Round 6
Hits: DeAndre Houston-Carson (triple), Adrian Peterson (triple), Chris Harris (double), Khalil Herbert and Pat O’Donnell.
Misses: Al Afalava, Jamin Elliott, Trestan Ebner, David Fales, Bryan Fletcher, Brock Forsey, Isaiah Frey, Thomas Graham, Joe Odom, Tyler Reed, J.D. Runnels, Duke Shelley, Zach Thomas and Cornelius Washington.
Whiffs: Tayo Fabuluje, Kylie Fitts, Dan LeFevour, Dazz Newsome and J.T. Thomas.
No at-bat: Doug Kramer.
Round 6 batting average/slugging: .208/.417.
Notes and nuggets
•Houston-Carson’s seven-season, 94-game run with the Bears could be over. He is still on the market as an unrestricted free agent. But for what Pace invested in 2016, choosing Houston-Carson with the 185th pick, the return was outstanding. Houston-Carson became a standout performer on special teams and served as a reliable reserve and emergency starter on defense when needed.
•Nicknamed “Megapunt” by fans during his rookie training camp, O’Donnell lasted eight seasons and four contracts with the Bears before heading to Green Bay in 2022. His 39.6 net average was solid for a player selected in the middle of Round 6.
•LeFevour, a Benet Academy product, guided Central Michigan to three Mid-American Conference championships in four years before he became a Round 6 selection in 2010. He struggled in the preseason that summer and was cut, with the Bears hoping to bring him back on their practice squad. The Cincinnati Bengals claimed him off waivers, but his NFL career never took off and he bounced around the CFL.
Round 7
Hits: Charles Leno (home run), J’Marcus Webb (double), Trumaine McBride, Lance Louis, Rod Wilson, Trent Gill, Marquess Wilson and Javon Wims.
Misses: Chester Adams, Bryan Anderson, Ervin Baldwin, Kirk Barton, Aaron Brant, Daniel Braverman, Stephen Denmark, Arlington Hambright, Derek Kinder, Joey LaRocque, Alfonso Marshall, Greg McCoy, Marcus Monk, Lachavious Simmons, Khyiris Tonga and Kerrith Whyte.
No at-bat: Ja’Tyre Carter and Elijah Hicks.
Round 7 batting average/slugging: .333/.500.
Notes and nuggets
•Leno was the last player the Bears selected in an eight-man class in 2014. He went on to start 94 games for them at left tackle. That’s a big-time return on investment and more than the Bears could have expected when they rolled those dice late on a Saturday afternoon of draft weekend.
•As a seventh-round pick in 2010, Webb’s emergence into the starting lineup at right tackle early in his rookie season was a success. He made 12 starts there before shifting to left tackle, where he started all 32 games over the next two years. Webb struggled with penalties — he was called for 26 over three seasons — but he held the starting job until 2014, when he was replaced by free-agent addition Jermon Bushrod. The Bears chose to use rookie Jordan Mills at right tackle and released Webb after he accepted a pay cut.
•A reminder: Squeezing just about anything at all out of a seventh-round pick is considered a success in draft circles. That’s why Marquess Wilson (56 catches, 777 yards, three touchdowns over four seasons) and Wims (28-266-2 over three) were stamped as hits.
Batting averages by GM
•Ryan Poles (2022-current): .500**
•Jerry Angelo (2002-11): .451
•Ryan Pace (2015-21): .429***
•Phil Emery (2012-14): .300
** does not include five players deemed too hard to judge after their rookie season
*** does not include four players deemed too hard to judge after their second or third seasons
Batting averages by position
•Kickers/punters: 1.000
•Safeties: .688
•Defensive tackles: .533
•Tight ends: .500
•Cornerbacks: .473
•Running backs: .429
•Wide receivers: .381
•Edge rushers: .364
•Offensive linemen: .292
•Quarterbacks: .286
•Linebackers: .267
Best three drafts (in total bases)
•2003: 12 (Haynes, Grossman, Tillman, Briggs, Todd Johnson, Scott, Wade, Gage, LaFavor, Odom, Forsey, Bryan Anderson)
•2016: 10 (Floyd, Whitehair, Bullard, Kwiatkoski, Bush, Hall, Howard, Houston-Carson, Braverman)
•2006 (tie): 8 (Manning, Hester, Dvoracek, Jamar Williams, Mark Anderson, Runnels, Reed)
•2004 (tie): 8 (Harris, Tank Johnson, Berrian, Vasher, Joe, Harriott, Krenzel, Marshall)
Worst three drafts* (in total bases)
•2019: 1 (Montgomery, Ridley, Shelley, Whyte, Denmark)
•2012: 2 (McClellin, Jeffery, Hardin, Rodriguez, Frey, McCoy)
•2011: 2 (Carimi, Paea, Conte, Enderle, Thomas)
* Does not include the incomplete classes of 2020 (4 total bases), 2021 (1) and 2022 (3).
