History proves that Putin can be defeated
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Watching Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson was a disturbing experience. Not only did the American come across as a second-rate game-show host, Putin displayed a view of history so distorted it was like listening to an eight-year-old telling you that Narnia definitely can be found at the back of the wardrobe.
Even Putin’s apologists were aghast. No one believed the dictator’s line that “Poland start[ed] the War in 1939.” But it puzzles me that the one bit of the interview that was widely accepted was that “Russia cannot be defeated”.
The past two years have shown Russia’s military can be beaten. While Putin might live in his own Narnia, the international community understands that the Kremlin has already lost.
Putin’s “three day” special operation has already lasted two years. He has lost around 50 per cent of the land he took in February 2022. If you bear in mind Putin initially invaded with around 165,000 men and has now lost well over 300,000, his army is a skeleton of what it once was.
Unsurprisingly perhaps, Russia has been missing its recruiting targets massively. They don’t have enough people to rotate formations and therefore can’t rest and recuperate the front line. In every attack, Russia loses many more men than Ukraine. Putin’s forces still can’t deliver dynamic targeting at a strategic level.
Ukraine has crowbarred open the grain corridor in the Black Sea, destroying huge numbers of Russian electronic warfare and air defence locations in Crimea and importantly continues to hold the support of the international community.
It is true last summer’s counter-offensive was not a success, but wars are littered with the occasional failed offensive. It doesn’t mean Ukraine can’t go on to win.
For now we are in an attritional phase. This is not the same as stalemate. But Ukraine must address its challenges and be ready for what comes next.
First of all, they need more shells and artillery. The EU has failed to deliver the one million shells it promised; I am not entirely convinced we are doing our bit either.
The sad fact is North Korea has supplied more shells to Russia than the whole of Europe has to Ukraine in the past few months. We can and must counter Russia’s advantage, even if that means putting our own 155 shell factory on a war footing.
If Ukraine is to win the attritional phase, she must mobilise. In 1939 we did just that. In 1941 we additionally mobilised women for “war work”. An extra 300,000 to 500,000 troops will allow proper rotation and rest for the exhausted thousands.
But how could Ukraine train that many? The answer is we will do it for them. The UK has already trained and equipped over 30,000 in a year. A new coalition of European nations could easily train another 200,000.
Remember every Ukrainian soldier is already now better trained than every Russian “cannon fodder”. President Zelensky is worried about who will pay for this mobilisation. The billions are right in front of our eyes. After the murder of Navalny there is now no excuse not to seize all those Russian assets lurking in Europe, London and the USA and use them for Ukraine.
The Putin interview reveals that it is history, not fear of Nato, that really motivates him. Within the despot’s worldview is a certain conviction that Britain has always been Russia’s true enemy and is behind every plot against the Kremlin. He will try, if we show weakness or drop our guard to take revenge for the pain he feels.
We are not alone. Poland and Sweden are regularly lambasted by him for their historic roles.
We must all remind ourselves that in the true version of history, Russia loses mostly because of its leaders: Tsar Nicholas I lost the Crimean war; Tsar Nicholas II lost the Japanese Russia war. I believe history will repeat itself and Vladimir Putin can lose. We must ensure it happens.
Rt Hon Ben Wallace MP served as defence secretary from 2019 to 2023
