History says the Colts' Jonathan Taylor won't have the statistical season you might expect

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor had a historic season in 2021:

• Colts single-game rushing record: 253 yards

• Total TDs in a game: 5

• Rushing TDs in a game: 4

• Rushing yards in a season: 1,811

• Rushing TDs in a season: 18

Taylor will, deservedly, be the top pick in any fantasy football draft he's available. But what should we expect from Taylor in 2022? Here's a look:

More: Insider: Why Jonathan Taylor's receiving numbers might explode with Matt Ryan at QB

Will Jonathan Taylor set the NFL rushing record?

Taylor averaged a ridiculous 123.7 yards over the final 12 games last season. With the 17-game season, that's a pace for 2,102 yards, 3 short of Eric Dickerson's 1984 record. You'd have to think the team would find 4 more yards to set the record.

So, yes, Taylor could set the rushing record.

But don't count on it. The Colts have made it clear they want to take advantage of new quarterback Matt Ryan and it would be a surprise if Taylor exceeded his 332 carries from last season.

There have been eight 2,000-yard seasons/ in NFL history and only twice did the back exceed 1,600 yards the previous season -- Eric Dickerson had 1,808 in 1983 and Terrell Davis 1,750 in 1997. There's no reason to expect Taylor to threaten the NFL rushing record next season.

How many yards will Jonathan Taylor rush for in 2022?

Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders discovered the "Curse of 370" after analyzing running backs who had 370 carries or more in a season. Everyone of them was: Hurt, never as good again, or Eric Dickerson.

(Eric Dickerson may not be human.)

The numbers continue to back up that theory.

There have been 11 seasons in which a running back had at least 370 carries and 1,800 yards. Those backs averaged 387 carries and 1,926 yards, a 5.0-yard average. The next season, those backs averaged 245 carries for 1,017 yards, a 4.2-yard average. Effectively, from an All-Pro to good.

If we take Dickerson out — it seems fair to only consider humans in this analysis — the numbers drop to an average of 217 carries, 820 yards and a 3.8-yard average; from All-Pro to below average.

Taylor, however, carried the ball just 332 times last season. (Thank you, Frank Reich.) There have been 12 seasons in which a running back had 1,800 yards and fewer than 370 carries. Those backs averaged 338 carries for 1,912 yards, a 5.7-yard average. The next season, those backs averaged 302 carries for 1,399 yards, a 4.6-yard average. Every back rushed for at least 1,100 yards and all averaged more 4.2 yards per carry.

For a quick and dirty projection, we take how much the 1,800-yard backs fell off on average, apply it to Taylor's 2021 numbers and get 297 carries and 1,325 yards.

Will he lead the NFL in rushing? Probably not. But Taylor should get a boost in receiving yards, too. He may be the most valuable commodity in fantasy football: A running back you can count on.

How many touchdowns will Taylor score?

There have been 25 running backs with at least 20 rushing and receiving touchdowns in a season and played the following year. Three of them increased their touchdown total the following season, so it's possible Taylor will increase his total, but unlikely.

On average, these backs went from 22 scores to 13. Using that percentage, Taylor projects for 11 touchdowns this season.

So is 1,325 yards and 11 touchdowns worth your first pick in fantasy football? I think it is. We're not including Taylor's receiving yards and there was a single NFL back that topped 1,300 yards last season -- Taylor.

Contact IndyStar Deputy Sports Editor Nat Newell at (317) 444-6182 or nat.newell@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter: @NatJNewell.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts NFL football: How many yards will Jonathan Taylor rush for?