What history tells us about these Tennessee Titans — and the ugly truth about their offense
The Tennessee Titans are averaging 18.4 points per game.
Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, there have been 140 cases where a team scored 18.4 points per game or fewer. Just two of those 140 teams (1.43%) made the playoffs: the 2016 Houston Texans and the 2005 Chicago Bears.
Realistically, the Titans (6-3) will join those ranks. No other team in the AFC South has a winning record. On top of that, no other team in the AFC South has a winning record against teams in the AFC South. And on top of that, the Titans already have two head-to-head wins against the only other team in the AFC South with a playoff probability of at least 10% — the Indianapolis Colts.
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The Titans haven't locked up a playoff spot by any stretch of the imagination, but it's hard to envision a world where the 1-7-1 Houston Texans, the 3-7 Jacksonville Jaguars or the 4-5-1 Indianapolis Colts who have already fired their head coach make late-season pushes to unseat the team that's won the division in back-to-back seasons.
That brings up the big question: Can these Titans keep winning − and win when it matters − when their offense essentially gives them a 98% chance of not being a playoff team?
The short answer: Now's the time to start proving it.
The Titans have six wins this season, all against teams with losing records. The Titans have three losses this season, all against teams with winning records. Among teams with winning records, only the Los Angeles Chargers have beaten opponents with a worse combined record than the Titans.
Half of the Titans' last eight games come against teams with winning records, and one of the teams with a losing record the Titans are set to face is the Green Bay Packers, a preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl.
If the Titans want to prove they can make a playoff run by winning low-scoring, defensive games, they'll need to pull off a win in one of those games against an actual contender. They came close last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 20-17 in overtime, but close losses still count as losses in the postseason.
It's true that scoring drops late in the season as temperatures dip and injuries become more of a factor, but not enough to think the season will start favoring teams like the Titans; last season, teams averaged 23.5 points per game in September, and scoring only fell to 22.9 points per game in December and January.
Unsurprisingly, the answer to the big question probably will come down to defense. The Titans have the NFL's eighth-best scoring defense, second-best rushing defense, fourth-most sacks and best third-down defense. But the Titans also haven't beaten a team that ranks better than No. 15 in the league in scoring or No. 12 in yards per play.
Winning with defense isn't a lost art. The last two Super Bowl winners allowed only 19 points per game in the postseason, right on par with what the Titans are averaging. But they also averaged 29 points per game offensively, a mark the Titans haven't hit since Week 17 of last season.
If the Titans can prove their strategy works in upcoming games against contenders like the Cincinnati Bengals or Philadelphia Eagles, it's worth getting amped about this flirtation with a long playoff run. If not, the numbers make it hard to see the Titans doing anything beyond dominating one of the NFL's worst divisions.
Contact Nick Suss at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: As Tennessee Titans keep winning, an ugly truth stunts Super Bowl talk
