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The history of trading back from No. 21 pick in NFL draft

kevin hickey
·7 min read

The Indianapolis Colts have grown a reputation under general manager Chris Ballard as being one of the teams most welcoming trade backs in the NFL draft.

At some point in the draft, Ballard is going to trade down. He’s done it in every draft up to this point and in most cases, he does it more than once. In his four drafts with the Colts, Ballard has traded down eight times. Stephen Holder of The Athletic did a great write-up on what kind of value Ballard has been getting in those trades.

Without a third-round pick this year, which he gave up in the trade for quarterback Carson Wentz, Ballard has just six picks at his disposal. That’s the fewest amount he’s had since becoming the general manager of the Colts.

A trade back at some point in 2021 should be expected, and they are likely to get the most value from moving the No. 21 overall pick. So we decided to take a look at the history of trading back from that pick to see what kind of haul Indy can get and to also compare it to the value of what those picks became.

Using Stathead’s Trade Finder Tool, we are looking all trade backs since 2000 from the No. 21 overall pick. Here are some quick hits from the data before we dive in:

  • Six times a team has traded back from No. 21 overall. Five of those six trades included solely giving up the No. 21 pick.

  • According to the Rich Hill model of valuing draft picks, the No. 21 overall pick has a value of 261.

  • In the five trades that included solely the No. 21 overall pick, the average value of the picks a team gets in return is 282.

  • However, in four of those five trades, the team trading away the No. 21 pick lost total value in the deal, according to the value chart.

  • Using Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric (AV), the combined career AV of the players that were selected at No. 21 overall by the team trading up is 161 (five total players).

  • Conversely, the combined career AV of the players the team trading back eventually selected is 185 (12 total players).

Before breaking down those trades, we also took a look at teams the Colts could trade back with and what those deals might look like.

2019: Seattle Seahawks & Green Bay Packers

Seahawks received: Nos. 30, 114, 118 Packers received: No. 21 Value of Seattle's draft picks received: 245 (-16) Review of the trade: The Packers moved up nine spots to select S Darnell Savage at No. 21 overall. The Seahawks wound up trading all three of those picks. Most notably, the New York Giants moved up to No. 30 in order to grab cornerback DeAndre Baker. Relevance to 2021: The Bills currently hold the No. 30 pick and certainly could be aggressive given their win-now mentality and Brandon Beane's willingness to make moves. The Bills have a second (No. 61) and third (No. 93) to negotiate.

2016: Washington & Houston Texans

Washington received: Nos. 22, 209 Texans received: No. 21 Value of Washington's draft picks received: 256 (-5) Review of the trade: The Texans moved up just one spot to grab wide receiver Will Fuller. Washington took wide receiver Josh Doctson with the next pick and wide receiver Robert Davis with their new sixth-round pick. Relevance to 2021: The Tennessee Titans are picking right behind the Colts so it's unlikely a deal is made. I would assume Ballard wants a deal where he gets something better than a sixth-round pick but it's always a possibility.

2012: Cincinnati Bengals & New England Patriots

Bengals received: Nos. 27, 93 Patriots received: No. 21 Value of Bengals' draft picks received: 258 (-3) Review of the trade: The Patriots moved up six spots to select edge rusher Chandler Jones. The Bengals took guard Kevin Zeitler at No. 27 and defensive tackle Brandon Thompson with their new third-round pick. Relevance to 2021: The Baltimore Ravens hold the No. 27 pick and could be looking to make a move, especially if wide receiver Rashod Bateman is there. Since it's just one spot behind them, the New Orleans Saints are also a team at No. 28 that could very well be aggressive and go for the Colts' pick.

2011: Kansas City Chiefs & Cleveland Browns

Chiefs received: Nos. 26, 70 Browns received: No. 21 Value of Chiefs' draft picks received: 293 (+32) Review of the trade: The Browns moved up five spots to take defensive tackle Phil Tayor. The Chiefs grabbed wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin at No. 26 and got edge rusher Justin Houston with their new third-round pick. Relevance to 2021: Coincidentally, the Browns hold the No. 26 pick this year. Given the construct of their roster, they could be willing to move up. they have two third-round picks (Nos. 89, 91) that the Colts could target.

2002: Washington & New England Patriots

Washington received: Nos. 32, 96, 234 Patriots received: No. 21 Value of Washington's draft picks received: 225 (-36) Review of the trade: The Patriots moved up from the final pick in the first round to grab tight end Daniel Graham. Meanwhile, Washington used the No. 32 pick on quarterback Patrick Ramsey, traded the No. 96 pick away and selected defensive end Greg Scott at No. 234. Relevance to 2021: This trade was a long time ago but the reigning Super Bowl champs in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could certainly be looking to move up. They have more draft picks than open spots on their roster. Maybe the Colts could move back to No. 32 and get No. 64 as well in the process.

BONUS, 2008: Washington & Atlanta Falcons

Disclaimer: I didn't include this one mainly because Washington was the only team to trade other picks in addition to the No. 21 overall pick. It's not that Ballard wouldn't do that, it just complicates matters because there is added value over simply what they could get for No. 21. But here's a look at that trade: Washington received: Nos. 34, 48, 103 — 333 in value Falcons received: Nos. 21, 84, 154 — 324 in value Review of the trade: The Falcons moved up to No. 21 to take offensive tackle Sam Baker, used the No. 84 pick on wide receiver Harry Douglas and the No. 154 pick on linebacker Kroy Bierrmann. Washington used the No. 34 pick on wide receiver Devin Thomas, the No. 48 pick on tight end Fred Davis and traded the No. 103 pick to the Titans. Relevance to 2021: Ballard could certainly trade out of the first round if the offer is strong enough and they feel good about the draft board. But it's hard to compare it to a potential trade simply because there are so many variables to it.

Conclusion

From the data we've gathered, it shows there is a high possibility the Colts will find a trade partner. Most of the trades resulted in the team moving back losing value technically by the trade chart, which we know isn't perfect. But with the need to add another third-round pick, Ballard might not worry about losing a bit of value according to the chart if it's close enough. It all depends on how Ballard feels about the board at the time. A trade is unlikely to happen before that, but the Colts will have plenty of suitors in a trade if they want to move back. Realistically, if the board is deep with talent they like, the Colts really just need to move back to the end of the first round and add a third-rounder in the process and that would be considered a solid move.

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