Hogan throws curveball into Maryland Senate race

Larry Hogan’s (R) surprise bid to run for outgoing Sen. Ben Cardin’s (D-Md.) seat has roiled what was expected to be a surefire get for Democrats.

Hogan, the popular two-term Republican governor, announced last week he was running for the Senate seat just hours before the filing deadline, giving the GOP a huge boost in a deep-blue state.

Democrats express confidence in their chances in the Old Line State, but there are signs Hogan could be a formidable challenger, with a survey this week showing him tying or leading the top two Democratic contenders in the race.

“Gov. Hogan’s presence in the Senate race will require the Democrats to play defense in a state that they thought they had wrapped up with minimal competition, so there will be a natural redistribution of resources in Maryland that would not have occurred had [he] not announced,” said veteran Democratic strategist Len Foxwell.

“I don’t believe for a second that it will change the outcome of the Maryland Senate race,” Foxwell added.

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Hogan made a surprise entry into the Maryland Senate race last week amid speculation that the former governor was harboring presidential aspirations. In a video launching his Senate candidacy last Friday, Hogan argued he was someone able to work across the aisle.

“We desperately need leaders willing to stand up to both parties — leaders that appreciate that no one of us has all the answers or all the power, because this is not just about the differences between the right and the left. This is about the difference between right and wrong,” Hogan said in his launch video.

The Maryland Republican governed the blue state from 2015 to 2023 and became a prominent critic of former President Trump. Hogan left office last year with a 77-percent approval rating, according to a Gonzales poll.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill/DC News Now survey released Thursday found Hogan beating Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) in a hypothetical two-way race at 44 percent support to 37 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

In a hypothetical match-up between Hogan and Rep. David Trone (D-Md.), the two men are tied at 42 percent support, with 16 percent undecided.

Mike Ricci, a spokesperson for Hogan, acknowledged the former governor’s challenges, while noting that that same poll showed President Biden underperforming in the state compared with his numbers there in the 2020 election, which Ricci said “shows you some of the challenges that Democrats are up against.”

“We come into this knowing that it’s an uphill battle and that the state is about as blue as it gets,” Ricci said. “But for us, this is about a unique situation where Gov. Hogan has always had an ability to connect with Marylanders beyond their … partisan affiliations.”

Hogan’s entry into the Senate race has also given Republicans in the Beltway a shot in the arm.

“I think Larry Hogan restores relevancy to Maryland on the national scene, because … he comes into the race, probably with better name ID than Trone or Alsobrooks at this time,” said Republican strategist Paul Ellington.

His entry was a big boost for Senate Republicans who already enjoy a favorable 2024 map, with Ohio, Montana, Nevada and Arizona being potential pickup opportunities. West Virginia is already expected to flip Republican after Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said he would not be seeking reelection.

“Governor Hogan’s entrance into the Maryland race has already sent Democrats into a panic, with worries over money and a divisive primary,” said Tate Mitchell, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC).

“As an overwhelmingly popular governor with a strong, independent brand, Larry Hogan just made Maryland one of the top races in the country.”

But Democrats, including those in the campaigns of Trone and Alsobrooks, feel optimistic about their chances.

“David Trone has spent over $32 million of his personal fortune, Larry Hogan spent 8 years in office — and still, neither one is winning over Marylanders,” said Alsobrooks campaign spokesperson Gina Ford. “When voters get to know Angela, her record of getting things done for Marylanders and how she’ll fight for us in the Senate, she will win in May and again in November.”

Joe Bowen, a spokesperson for Trone, told The Hill that “you can’t understate what a good candidate Larry Hogan is” but also argued that Trone was in “a very strong position to beat Larry Hogan and keep Mitch McConnell in the minority in the Senate.” Bowen argued the Emerson poll underscored Trone’s competitiveness.

Democrats acknowledge they now won’t be able to sleep on what was supposed to be a safe race. But they cast doubt on the argument that Hogan’s popularity as governor makes him a formidable opponent.

“We’ve actually seen this playbook fail miserably before in states that are not as partisan as Maryland,” said Democratic strategist Justin Barasky, who’s served as a senior adviser to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

“Look at [former Govs.] Steve Bullock in Montana or Ted Strickland in Ohio, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee. We have seen a lot of evidence that a governor’s popularity does not translate to a federal race.”

Bullock, Strickland and Bredesen were seen as key recruits for Democrats — governors who were seen as popular in their state or who even held an early advantage in polls against their Senate Republican challengers. But Bullock lost to Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chair of the NRSC, by 10 points in 2020, while Strickland lost to former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) by 21 points in 2016. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) beat Bredesen in 2018 by close to 11 points.

Democrats have already started to turn up the pressure on Hogan over issues such as abortion. The DSCC pushed out a clip of Hogan’s interview with CNN’s Dana Bash this week in which he called abortion “an important and emotional issue for women across Maryland” and suggested that an abortion rights measure on the Maryland ballot “wasn’t really necessary.”

In that same interview, Hogan also said he would not vote to support a national abortion ban and argued “my position is exactly where most Marylanders are.”

Former Maryland Secretary of State John Willis (D), who’s now at the University of Baltimore, suggested some of Hogan’s rhetoric on issues such as abortion didn’t square with how he governed.

Willis pointed to Hogan’s vetoing of legislation that allowed abortion training to be given to certain nonphysician health professionals. Hogan later delayed the allocation of money toward that training.

“You know, he tried to frustrate the efforts in Maryland for reproductive care and took money out of the budget in his last term, so I’m not sure that works with the voters that are motivated by that issue,” Willis said.

Ricci defended Hogan’s vetoing of the record, arguing “we have a high standard of health care in this state” and suggested Democrats were resorting to the same issue sets to target Hogan as they did in 2014 and 2018.

Nonetheless, Hogan faces a tough challenge winning in a blue state during such fraught political times.

“There is a part of the populace … voters who like this idea of, like, bipartisanship and cooperation and things not being as divisive and all this. That is a powerful message,” said Mileah Kromer, author of “Blue-State Republican: How Larry Hogan Won Where Republicans Lose and Lessons for a Future GOP.”

“It’s a tough message when the fact that it’s a fairly toxic political environment … everywhere across the country.”

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