Holiday gatherings, travel uptick, decline in mask-wearing spur new rise in NJ COVID cases
Recent holiday gatherings, a rebound in travel and an overall decline in mask-wearing have caused New Jersey COVID cases to start rising again after the steep downturn following the winter omicron surge.
The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention bumped Morris County up into the "yellow" zone on Friday after doing the same for Bergen County earlier in the week. The designation means both areas have moderate community levels of COVID, based on the rate of new COVID cases in the area, hospital beds being used and hospital admissions.
The CDC rated nine upstate New York counties at "orange" — meaning they have high community levels of COVID — while New York, Westchester, Orange and Nassau counties in New York are considered to have moderate levels.
The increase in infections appears to be driven in New York by two subvariants of omicron, known as BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1. Although spreading rapidly, they do not appear to cause more severe illness. But with commercial labs handling a smaller proportion of COVID-positive tests and subjecting them to genetic analysis, less is known about how widespread they are.
But fewer people who become infected need hospital care, and New Jersey's hospitals are in good shape, officials said Thursday.
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Bergen County's higher community COVID rating by the CDC was due to the escalation in cases, not pressure on hospitals, said Dr. Edward Lifshitz, medical director of the state Health Department's communicable disease division. "The hospitals are not at any risk from being overwhelmed" by a surge in COVID patients, he said.
Dr. Daniel Varga, chief physician executive at Hackensack Meridian Health, one of the state's largest hospital systems, agreed. The omicron variant is very transmissible, he said, but New Jersey's population has comparatively high levels of immunity from vaccination and previous infection. As a result, what he called "this little blip" is "not turning into this massive hospital wave we’ve seen in the past."
Even for patients hospitalized with COVID, the percentage needing intensive care or a ventilator for breathing is much lower than in previous COVID waves, he said.
Every county in New Jersey had been considered at "green"— having low levels of COVID — since the CDC introduced the new system on March 24. But Lifshitz said he would "not be surprised if other New Jersey counties followed" Bergen, and were bumped up to yellow by the CDC, based on their case rates.
Because of the latest rise in cases, many New Jersey hospitals, nursing homes and rehab facilities have started to reintroduce limits on visitors, based on guidance updated Wednesday by the New Jersey Hospital Association. The hospital association recommends limiting visitors to one per patient, with none at all for patients who are immune compromised or diagnosed with COVID, in all but five southwestern counties.
And given COVID's unpredictability, it was best for hospitals to be watchful, said Cathy Bennett, the hospital association's CEO. In January, "we saw hospitalizations climb very quickly," said Bennett, although she added that there were enough beds for patients because they were discharged more quickly.
Staffing might become a concern if the number of cases in the community rises to extremely high levels, even if they do not cause severe illness, Varga said.
The number of hospital patients with COVID rose to 444 on Wednesday night — the highest number in over a month
"We’re currently in a good place with hospital capacity," Bennett said, "but the numbers continue to tick up." And without information about the results of the growing number of home tests, she added, "there’s a degree of unknown there."
The rising numbers come as a federal judge this week overruled the CDC's federal mask requirement for planes, trains and other public transit, and follows decisions in each of the 50 states to remove mask mandates in public places. The Justice Department appealed the judge's decision Thursday at the request of the CDC, which said the mask mandate "remains necessary for public health."
Efforts to vaccinate and give first boosters to the population against COVID also appear to have stalled. But warmer weather and more outdoor activities in the Northeast are likely to mitigate the spread.
At individual hospitals, the slight rise in COVID cases did not cause alarm.
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"A lot has been made recently about the rise in test positivity," said Dr. Stephen Brunnquell, president of Englewood Health's physician network and a primary care physician in Harrington Park. "But a lot of [the people who test positive] are younger, healthier people, who are not seeking treatment. They have symptoms of a head cold or a sore throat, and treat at home with chicken soup."
While he is more concerned about older patients with underlying health conditions that would make them susceptible to complications from COVID, he said he is not seeing those. As of Wednesday morning, Englewood Health had just three patients in the hospital who tested positive for COVID, Brunnquell said, compared with 100 during omicron's January peak.
"To me the vaccine and the booster is still effective in keeping people out of the hospital," he said.
Currently, 75.4% of New Jersey's population is fully vaccinated, and 47.1% have received a first booster, according to the CDC.
Bergen County reported 1,833 new COVID cases confirmed through the highly accurate PCR tests over seven days ending Wednesday, according to the state Department of Health. That is a rate of 204 cases per 100,000 people. Morris County had 209 cases per 100,000 people, as of Friday. Any rate higher than 200 per 100,000 people triggers a yellow rating by the CDC.
Statewide, 13,976 new cases were reported over the last seven days, the CDC said.
Lindy Washburn is a senior health care reporter for NorthJersey.com. To keep up-to-date about how changes in health care affect you and your family, please subscribe or activate your digital account today.
Email: washburn@northjersey.com
Twitter: @lindywa
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Holiday gatherings, less mask-wearing fuel latest COVID rise in NJ
