The holiday season is here — unless you’re running for president

This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.

Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.

A reminder to follow our new On the Trail 2024 Instagram account! As I travel to events in Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire and elsewhere, I upload videos and other content in real time there. Hope you enjoy.

If you missed it, a political nugget from our profile of ex-BYU president Kevin Worthen: “A few friends encouraged Worthen to run for Mitt Romney’s soon-to-be vacated Senate seat, but he decided there are other Utahns who are better qualified.”

Here’s more of the Deseret News’ 2024 election coverage:

• Polls say Nikki Haley could beat Biden. But can she beat Trump?

• Vivek Ramaswamy needs to win over Iowa evangelicals. He hired 2 former Latter-day Saint missionaries to help

• Cornel West holds his debut in-person rally in Salt Lake City

The Big Idea

Happy holidays, says no presidential candidate ever

We’re nearing a paradoxical juncture in the presidential election cycle. While the rest of the country seems to slow down for the holidays, the campaigns shift into full gear, ahead of a gauntlet of caucuses and primaries in early January. From there, the pace doesn’t slow much until summer, when the two major parties will officially crown their nominees at their respective conventions.

A quick glance at the post-holiday path ahead:

Republicans will converge on Iowa for the Jan. 15 caucuses, where Donald Trump’s challengers will make every and any attempt to gain an early foothold. Trump leads by over 20 percentage points there, while Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are neck-and-neck. But things have gotten interesting. DeSantis won two big endorsements in recent weeks, from Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats. Haley is drawing out big crowds at every turn. And Vivek Ramaswamy hired a pair of former Latter-day Saint missionaries to help pitch his campaign to an evangelical electorate.

I have another Iowa-centric story coming this week, about a group who’s been trying to sell voters on someone, anyone, besides Trump. More on that soon.

After Iowa, it’s all eyes on New Hampshire on Jan. 23, where both Democrats and Republicans hold their first primary election. There’s some soreness here — the Democratic National Committee decided to make South Carolina its first primary, so Joe Biden won’t show up on the New Hampshire ballot. The state party dug in its heels and will still hold a primary. Either way, all eyes will be on the Republican ticket, where things could get interesting: Trump leads big, but Haley is rising and DeSantis is plummeting. If Chris Christie — who is polling at 14%, above DeSantis — drops out before New Hampshire and endorses Haley, it could change the entire complexion of the race.

Democrats hold their first official primary on Feb. 3 in South Carolina, then head to Nevada on Feb. 6. Things are messy in Nevada, too — the state GOP is holding a caucus on Feb. 8 independent of the state-run primary, and any candidate who participates in the primary is barred from the caucus. Haley registered for the primary; DeSantis, Trump and Ramaswamy will compete in the caucus. The calculus here, on Haley’s part, is likely to acknowledge that Trump holds an insurmountable lead in Nevada, and that she could win a meaningless primary without having to exert much effort (she’s yet to hold a public campaign event in Nevada). Steal a headline, skip the caucus and move on.

That takes us to Haley’s backyard: South Carolina, where the Feb. 24 primary completes the first batch of early-voting states. If Trump’s challengers do well in Iowa or New Hampshire, this state could get interesting. Haley, of course, has the proverbial home-court advantage; Trump, like everywhere else, has a huge lead.

We’re in for a crazy couple of months. Hang on to your Santa hats.

What I’m reading

No Iowa governor has endorsed a non-incumbent GOP presidential candidate since the 1990s. That Gov. Reynolds would break tradition and back DeSantis was certainly newsy, if not surprising. But how much will it really move the needle come caucus-time? Local reporters have a smart breakdown here, reporting from Des Moines: Iowa political leaders are endorsing DeSantis. Trump still thinks the caucuses are a lock (Katie Akin, Galen Bacharier and Brianne Pfannenstiel, Des Moines Register)

Trump’s views on religious groups are well-documented. He’s feuded with Muslims since the start of his 2016 campaign. He’s mocked Latter-day Saints. But it now seems he has unfavorable views of one of his strongest bases, too: evangelical Christians. That’s according to a new book written by The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta, which releases next week. After Trump was widely mocked in 2016 for referring to 2 Corinthians as “Two Corinthians,” he called Ted Cruz’s evangelical backers “so-called Christians” and other more-colorful names. Trump called Iowa evangelicals ‘so-called Christians’, book says (Martin Pengelly, The Guardian)

Vivek Ramaswamy may be sinking in the polls, but there’s no reason to suggest he won’t be around Republican politics for a long, long time. He’s young. He’s garnered a fairly robust following, including among young voters. By his side is his wife Apoorva, a Yale-educated throat surgeon who appears sporadically on the trail, between her routine shifts at Ohio State University’s medical center. An interesting tidbit from this profile: Vivek Ramaswamy has crusaded against COVID-19 vaccines, while Apoorva’s background as a medical professional encouraged her to get the vaccine — and defend it. Beside Ramaswamy, a Doctor Who Listens More and Debates Less (Anjali Huyhn, The New York Times)

Have a question for next week’s mailbag? Drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com, or reply to this email.

See you on the trail.

Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.