Home Depot's price-earnings ratio shows stock price has room to grow | Retire on Track

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Evan GuidoEvan Guido
Evan Guido

Before interest rates started soaring, the housing market was as hot as I can remember. Bids on existing homes seemed to start piling up as soon as a real estate agent planted a "For Sale" sign on a lawn. People were actually paying above asking prices in some cases in an atmosphere of ever-increasing home values.

Ahh, good times – if you were a homeowner. And you might have been more willing to undertake home upgrades and renovations, thinking of them as investments instead of expenses. I’ve always thought it’s difficult to justify most of this work purely in terms of return on investment because you often don’t get back every dollar you put into it. But investing in home improvement companies certainly could pay off.

Home Depot (symbol: HD), one of two home improvement giants, was enjoying superb stock price growth until this year’s interest rate increases and related housing struggles. The stock went from a range of $136-$208 in 2017 to $247-$421 last year. This year the price has leveled off to the $320 range.

So is this a good time to jump into Home Depot? The best way to find out is to do your own analysis using company results and history as a guide.

I love studying companies like Home Depot. When you’re trying to predict the future of a company’s sales and earnings, past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it’s a good starting point. The more consistent the growth, the easier it is to have confidence in your projections.

For the most part, the company’s growth has been sturdy and consistent. Over the past decade, sales have grown about 8% a year, and earnings per share (EPS) at 19%. Its profit margins have been solid as well.

Looking ahead, I think it’s reasonable to expect a slowdown in results until the housing market is back in full swing. Analysts are projecting low growth over the next year or two years before the housing market picks up again. For the next five years, analysts are expecting average annual EPS growth of almost 16%. I feel like that’s an aggressive rate – analysts are usually overly optimistic (because most of them get their information from optimistic company management).

Home Depot also has enjoyed growth in its EPS by buying back shares. By reducing the shares outstanding, buybacks can inflate a company’s true growth. For example, if a company has a profit of $200 and has 100 shares outstanding, EPS is $2.00. If the company makes $200 next year but shares outstanding decreases to 50, EPS is $4.00.

But I still believe the company will grow earnings at a healthy clip. Meanwhile, the stock’s price-earnings ratio (P/E), or how much investors are willing to pay for a dollar of earnings, has been consistent. With the current P/E of 19 below the average of 21 over the past five years, I think there’s room for the stock price to grow.

Home Depot might not be the most exciting stock over the next several years, but I think it’s worth looking at as a potential foundation for your portfolio.

Evan R. Guido is the founder of Aksala Wealth Advisors LLC, a 2018 Forbes Next-Gen Advisors List Member, and Financial Professional at Avantax Investment ServicesSM. Evan heads a team of retirement transition strategists for clients who consider themselves the “Millionaire Next Door.” He can be reached at 941-500-5122 or eguido@aksalawealth.com. Read more of his insights at heraldtribune.com/business. Securities offered through Avantax Investment ServicesSM, member FINRA, SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Avantax Advisory ServicesSM, insurance services offered through an Avantax affiliated insurance agency. 6260 Lake Osprey Drive, Lakewood Ranch, FL 34240.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: EVAN GUIDO: Home Depot worth a look as a foundation for your portfolio

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