‘Hotter than Atlanta’: Triangle rents remain competitive. What that means for 2024.
Heading into 2024, the Triangle’s rental market remains “hot.”
While prices are slowly cooling, apartment hunters still face stiff odds, according to RentCafe’s year-end report. Outpacing metros like Charlotte, Atlanta and Washington, D.C., the Raleigh-Cary metro area is the most competitive in the Southeast, it found, ranking No. 36 out of 139 large markets analyzed.
For apartment hunters, that meant roughly eight prospective renters vied for each vacant apartment in the area this year. Rentals, consequently, got snatched up in just 34 days, compared to the nation’s average 38 days.
Aggravating the situation, 60.7% of apartment dwellers in the Triangle renewed their leases, pushing the occupancy rate to a high 93.6%. Both stats align closely with the U.S. averages, the report noted.
But it’s not all bad news.
Looking ahead, a post-pandemic construction boom in the Raleigh-Cary area has pushed up inventory.
Some 10,922 apartments are expected to hit the market by year’s end, an earlier RentCafe study found. That’s a 3.8% jump in new stock and among the highest in the country — way above the national average of 1.9%.
“Finding an apartment in the Triangle is a bit easier than it was in 2022, due to the area’s steady increase in new apartments,” RentCafe’s Felicity Domentii said in an email to The N&O.
Another uptick: The metro area is just “moderately competitive” compared to places like Miami, the nation’s hottest rental market in 2023, followed by New Jersey and Milwaukee.
RentCafe.com’s research team analyzed Yardi Systems apartment data, ranking markets across five metrics: apartment occupancy rate, average total days vacant, prospective renters per vacant unit, renewal lease rate, and share of new apartments completed during the same time frame. The score is based on market averages for January through September 2023.
Other smaller rental markets that were competitive included Fayetteville and Asheville, which earned a competitiveness score of 110, the study found. That’s the highest in the state.
Here’s a quick snapshot of the Triangle’s competitiveness in 2023:
No. of renters competing for an apartment: 8 in 2023 vs. 12 in 2022
No. of days apartments stay vacant: 34 in 2023 vs. 30 in 2022
Occupancy rate: 93.6% in 2023 vs. 95.2% in 2022
Share of renters renewing their leases: 60.7% in 2023 vs. 63.9% in 2022
Share of new apartments: 3.80% in 2023 vs. 1.72% in 2022
Triangle’s ‘Missing Middle’ housing: Where did it go? What can bring it back?
Market update
Soaring home prices and higher mortgage rates are keeping many would-be home buyers in the rental market longer, say experts.
A long-running housing shortage is also inflating rents across the Triangle. The Raleigh metro area alone needs at least 17,000 more units, according to a recent Zillow study.
Despite a national trend showing rents cooling in major markets, prices remain high.
Raleigh’s median rent (mid-point value) stands at $1,259 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,436 for a two-bedroom, according to Apartment List’s January 2024 rent report.
The overall median rent in the city stands at $1,429, after falling 0.9% in December. Prices are down 4% year-over-year.
In Durham, the median rent currently stands at $1,200 for a one-bedroom apartment and $1,397 for a two-bedroom, Apartment List found.
The overall median rent in the city stands at $1,366, roughly the same as last month. Prices are down 0.7% year-over-year.
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