Hotter summers, rising gun violence put vulnerable youth at risk. Can advocates keep them safe?

Story at a glance


  • For vulnerable youths across America, summer can be a difficult season to navigate.


  • Rates of crime and gun violence typically spike during the summer months, putting underserved populations at a heightened risk.


  • Programs across the country are working to protect youths from these risks and equip them with the tools they need to succeed.


Climate change has already resulted in deadlier summers across America thanks to prolonged heat waves and associated illnesses and deaths.

Throw in the fact that along with hotter weather comes increased violence and crime rates, and extended summers induced by climate change take on a whole new meaning.

On a global scale, data show heat waves are associated with a rise in gender-based violence, including higher rates of intimate partner femicides and intimate partner violence.

“Extreme events don’t themselves cause gender-based violence, but rather they exacerbate the drivers of violence or create environments that enable this type of behavior,” researcher Kim Robin van Daalen said in a statement.

In the United States, higher temperatures were significantly associated with more daily shootings in Chicago between 2012 and 2016, while this link was more pronounced on weekends and holidays. On Memorial Day, Independence Day, and Labor Day emergency departments see higher volumes of gun wound-related traffic.

In northern cities, analyses have found twice as many people were shot on hotter days compared with colder days, on average.


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A number of factors may play into the link between violence and temperature, including that people tend to be more irritable in hotter weather, and the more temperate the weather is, the more likely individuals will spend time outdoors in public settings.

But disparities exist with regard to who suffers the most from heat-related illness and violence. For example, individuals who can’t afford air conditioning may spend more time outdoors than their wealthier counterparts during extreme heat waves.

There is also significant overlap in regions that experience extreme heat, and those most susceptible to gun violence. Redlining and discriminatory housing practices enacted throughout American history segregated marginalized, low-income communities of color in certain urban regions. These areas, complete with plenty of concrete and a paucity of tree coverage and green space, suffer more when heat waves strike.

A 2020 study of over 100 urban areas across the United States found 94 percent of included cities recorded higher temperatures in formerly redlined areas, indicating “current maps of intra-urban heat echo the legacy of past planning policies.”

Research conducted in Boston and Philadelphia point to associations between formerly redlined neighborhoods and increased rates of gun violence, while data from Los Angeles illustrated a stronger heat-crime relationship in impoverished neighborhoods.

Protecting those at risk

Firearms are the leading cause of death in Americans younger than 19; between 2019 and 2020, there was a 40 percent increase in firearm fatalities among Black youth. In 2020, Black adolescent boys were 21 times more likely than white adolescent boys to die from a gun homicide.

“These considerable racial disparities are rooted in poverty and structural and cultural racism, resulting in a victim-blaming and biased perception of firearm-related violence in minoritized populations, which lessens the sense of urgency to reduce this violence,” researchers wrote in The Lancet.

Summers pose additional challenges for at-risk youth as the school year structure disappears, along with any school-related extracurricular activities or educational opportunities.

That’s why organizations across the country strive to provide options for vulnerable youth in the summertime, whether through employment opportunities or community engagement. Afterschool Alliance executive director Jodi Grant has seen this effort play out across America.

“There’s a host of factors that go into juvenile crime, but it is well established that for most of these kids, if we can give them a safe place where they have meaning and they belong with caring adults, those crime rates dropped dramatically,” Grant told Changing America.

The program is based in Washington, D.C. and supports afterschool and summer programs for youths in all 50 states through partnerships with direct service providers like the Boys & Girls Club, YMCA, and 4-H. Funding summer youth programs has also led to decreases in gun violence.

Focusing on a holistic approach to ensure youths feel safe physically and mentally is key for the programs’ success, Grant said. This factor, in addition to fostering relationships with peers and mentors, gives youths a sense of belonging that can also encourage pursuing passions and interests.

Marrying both education and fun is also important so the programs avoid coming off as punitive.

“If kids are in after school programs, juvenile crime rates drop,” Grant explained, noting a one-size-fits-all approach may not work for every community.

For example, initiatives in Chicago partner youths with local employers, providing them with valuable job experience, while those in Alaska might focus on outdoor, wilderness survival skills.

In addition to reducing violent crime and protecting at-risk youth, the programs also prove cost effective for communities as they prevent incarceration and offer students the tools for success.

But getting funding for programs in the first place remains a major hurdle, as is ensuring affordability for all parents who may want to enroll their children.

Money allocated to school districts through the American Rescue Plan marks a significant step forward, but for this money to truly make an impact, Grant argues districts must partner with outside organizations to fund more comprehensive programs aside from strictly tutoring or offering after school homework help.

The newly passed gun reform bill also includes $50 million to fund the 21st Century Community Learning Centers program, an initiative that supports after school and summer programs. The bill currently awaits President Biden’s signature after receiving senate approval today.

“We can do better, it’s not that expensive to do better on this,” Grant said. “And it can make a world of difference.”

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