House GOP 2024 strategy memo: We have to win in blue states
To win a majority in congress in 2024, the largest GOP super PAC told donors that the path to victory lies in blue states, according to a memo sent to donors and obtained by POLITICO.
Congressional Leadership Fund, a PAC aligned with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has identified that about one-third of swing seats are in traditionally blue states. Republicans hold just a four-seat majority in Congress and will have to defend 13 seats in deep blue New York and California for the best chance to hold on to power in 2024.
To aid in that effort, CLF is launching a “Blue State Project” to compete in traditionally blue states.
“We have an opportunity to continue to capture the frustration of middle of the road voters in liberal states crying out for common sense,” the memo written by CLF president Dan Conston said. “It is no accident that we’ve had our biggest gains in NY and CA for four straight years, but it also means we have extraordinarily expensive fights ahead with 11 targeted incumbents in the NYC and LA media markets alone.”
This memo lays bare that as Republicans ramp up in a presidential year, they are aware that some of the issues they most need to focus on are different from those that rile up the base.
The memo told donors that swing voters in blue states are different from those in swing states. This will let Republicans blame Democratic leaders for problems like cost of living and crime rates — both of which played prominent roles in New York last cycle, where Republicans flipped four seats and Lee Zeldin came close to an upset win against Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Republicans in blue states will have a disadvantage when it comes to party infrastructure. CLF said it must create its own infrastructure focused on reaching ticket-splitting voters, building field programs to reach voters and investing in early voting, which Republicans have advised against in past cycles.
The memo also told donors that CLF will need early funding to reserve television time in these comparably more expensive markets during the presidential year, which will also drive up rates.
In addition to defending GOP gains in deep blue states, the Congressional Leadership Fund also identified offensive opportunities that it plans to invest in, starting with the open seats currently held by Democrats Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia. It also said it plans to support challengers in the five seats held by Democrats that Donald Trump won in 2020.
The memo also took direct aim at two vulnerable Democrats in Pennsylvania, Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright. CLF said they were able to win because of poor candidate quality at the top of the ticket.
Wild and Cartwright “only won because of top-of-ticket drag from Doug Mastriano. Their images are hobbled, and they’re strapped for cash after last cycle. They will face serious challenges,” the memo said.
National Republicans breathed a sigh of relief when Mastriano said he wouldn't run for Senate this year, and still hope to see their top recruit, David McCormick, enters the race.
CLF’s memo was bullish overall on its chances to continue expanding the Republican majority, highlighting that GOP-targeted members have raised more and have more money cash on hand than Democrats as well as the fact that Democratic President Joe Biden and Bidenomics are unpopular in public opinion surveys.
“House Republicans picked up 15 seats in 2020 and won back the majority in 2022, while Republicans regressed elsewhere,” the memo said. “With a little over 15 months until Election Day, we have a strong opportunity to hold and grow the majority and deliver a third-straight cycle of victories.”
