House GOP super PAC adds $45M to fall advertising

House Republicans’ chief super PAC is booking another $45 million in fall advertising — a massive sum that will further define the congressional battleground as the GOP fights national headwinds to narrow Democrats' majority.

The new buys, which are spread across 40 media markets, bring Congressional Leadership Fund’s total investment for the cycle to nearly $90 million, according to plans shared first with POLITICO. They include broadcast, cable and digital ads, as well as funding for mail programs, and will cover a mix of offensive and defensive targets.

The group, which has close ties to House GOP leadership, is using the reservations to ratchet up the pressure on some of the most endangered Democratic incumbents, like Reps. Kendra Horn (D-Okla.) and Ben McAdams (D-Utah). But it is also spending to protect some Republican districts once thought to be safe, like Montana’s at-large district and an open GOP-held seat on Long Island.

“We’re doubling down in top winnable offense races and shoring up a much smaller group of key defense seats,” CLF President Dan Conston said in a statement. “The House battlefield is being fought predominantly in conservative-leaning Democrat-held districts where we have great recruits who can make the sale to voters.”

CLF made its first TV reservations in April, dropping $43 million. This second round builds on many of those, doubling or nearly doubling the group’s initial spending in several markets by adding $3.5 million in Iowa, $3.4 million in upstate New York, $3.2 million in Houston, $2.5 million in Minnesota and $2.3 million in Los Angeles.

And it includes a new offensive target that was not in the April batch. CLF booked $2.7 million in Miami, a huge bet on Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez’s odds against Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-Fla.) in a South Florida district that Hillary Clinton won by 16 points.

But most of the new markets added in the second wave of reservations cover defensive targets. CLF plans to book $3.2 million in Dallas and $500,000 in deep-red Montana, where Democrats are targeting two open GOP-held seats; and $775,000 in Cincinnati where Rep. Steve Chabot (R-Ohio) faces another stiff reelection challenge after turning aside a well-funded opponent last cycle.

The group has also set aside $1.9 million to defend retiring Rep. Pete King’s (R-N.Y.) seat on Long Island — where the Democratic candidate has a huge cash advantage and polling shows a tightening race.

The new round of TV ad spending comes amid increasing concern among some Republicans that President Donald Trump’s sinking suburban numbers could send them deeper into the House minority. There is a contingent in the party who have urged GOP outside groups to prioritize incumbents and open seats.

CLF’s spending plan suggests they still view the map as primarily offensive: The reservations include at least twice as many Democratic seats as Republican ones. And the group significantly upped its buys against several Democratic incumbents: Horn (to $3.6 million), McAdams (to $3.1 million) and Reps. Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.) (to $4.9 million), Xochitl Torres Small (D-N.M.) (to $4 million), Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) (to $3.1 million), Elaine Luria (D-Va.) (to $2.8 million) and Susie Lee (D-Nev.) (to $1.9 million).

In a statement, Conston described the spending as “a second down payment in key races where we can make a real difference in the battle for the House,” and he said it would not be the group’s last reservation of the cycle.

Still, Democrats will be able to go to toe-to-toe with that kind of spending. The incumbents in those seats have massive cash-on-hand advantages over their challengers, and they will also receive help from Democratic groups. House Majority PAC, congressional Democrats’ flagship outside group, is also flush with cash and has reserved $75 million so far.

And the buys do set CLF in a position to play defense in as many as 13 seats, including those held by Chabot and Reps. Jim Hagedorn (R-Minn.), Mike Garcia (D-Calif.), Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Rodney Davis (R-Ill.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.), as well as five open seats in Texas, New York, Georgia and Montana.

The total number is not clear because several markets cover multiple districts, giving CLF some flexibility to adjust spending depending on the political environment this fall.

For example, in markets like Houston and Dallas, Republicans can decide later how to allocate those buys. In both markets, the party hopes to oust a Democratic incumbent, Reps. Lizzie Fletcher in Houston and Colin Allred in Dallas, and protect open Republican-held seats that Democrats are aggressively targeting. (CLF has already said that $3.1 million of its $6.3 million Houston reservation is to boost GOP Army veteran Wesley Hunt, who is challenging Fletcher.)

Texas is set to host a slew of competitive House races this cycle, but CLF notably has not booked in the San Antonio market, which covers the open West Texas swing seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Will Hurd, and the central Texas seat held by Rep. Chip Roy.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has also declined to reserve air time there, and the lack of interest may suggest national Republicans are unsure of whether or not they will defend Hurd’s seat. Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones is running again after coming within 1,000 votes of ousting Hurt in 2018 and has more than $3 million banked. Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is unclear. The July primary runoff is still too close to call after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) made a last-minute foray into the race to block a win by the preferred candidate of House Republican leaders.

There is a growing consensus that Roy, who faces a well-funded challenge from Texas’s former Democratic gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis, will need help in his reelection. But the conservative Club for Growth has signaled that it will back Roy, lessening the burden on CLF and the NRCC.

The Club is also likely to spend big for Matt Rosendale, the GOP nominee in Montana’s open seat, and for state Del. Nick Freitas, who is challenging Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.). CLF has already booked over $1.5 million in the Richmond, Va., market for Spanberger's seat.

And $6 million of CLF’s $45 million investment will go toward a GOTV program aimed at juicing up turnout as states increasingly plan to vote-by-mail. This new initiative will focus on reaching potential ticket-splitters in states that will be highly contested at the presidential level as well as low-propensity voters in states not hosting competitive presidential or Senate races.

Spending breakdown by state or market:
— $3.5 million across Iowa
— $3.4 million in Upstate New York, including Syracuse, Binghamton and Utica, with $2.7 million for NY-22 and $700,000 for NY-24
— $3.4 million in New York City, including $1 million for NY-11, $500,000 for NJ-07 and $1.9 million for NY-02
— $3.2 million in Dallas
— $3.2 million in Houston
— $2.9 million in Albuquerque, N.M., and El Paso, Texas
— $2.7 million in Miami
— $2.5 million in Minnesota
— $2.3 million in Los Angeles, including $1.8 million for CA-25 and $600,000 for CA-48
— $2.3 million in Salt Lake City
— $2.1 million in Charleston, S.C., and Savannah, Ga.
— $2.1 million in Oklahoma City
— $2.1 million in Philadelphia
— $1.8 million in Norfolk, Va.
— $1.7 million in Atlanta
— $1.2 million in Champaign, Ill., and St. Louis
— $1 million in Las Vegas
— $775,000 in Cincinnati
— $650,000 in Richmond, Va.
— $650,000 in Omaha, Neb.
— $500,000 in Montana
— $500,000 in Detroit
— $400,000 in Bakersfield, Calif., and Fresno, Calif.
— $400,000 in Harrisburg, Pa.
— $250,000 in Maine