House opens impeachment inquiry against President Biden. Will it hurt California Republicans?

Congressional Republicans in California districts won by President Joe Biden in 2020 could face new political trouble because of their vote Wednesday to open an impeachment inquiry into the president’s conduct.

Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, John Duarte, R-Modesto, and Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, are running in hotly-contested districts carried by Biden, making them prime targets for Democratic efforts to unseat them next year.

Duarte said this was a matter of duty, not politics.

“Impeachment is a very solemn duty of Congress,” he told The Bee before the vote. “I am weighing the facts and issues, not the politics.”

The House voted 221 to 212 Wednesday to open the inquiry. While it’s not a formal vote for impeachment, it does mean that Biden becomes the fourth president in U.S. history to face possible impeachment. Presidents Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached and Donald Trump was impeached twice. None were convicted by the Senate.

All California Republicans Wednesday voted to proceed with the inquiry. All California Democrats voted no.

The inquiry centers largely on allegations of Biden’s involvement in his son Hunter’s business dealings. As yet, Republicans have turned up no evidence the president was directly involved, let alone that he committed any high crimes and misdemeanors that are the threshold for impeachment.

But questions have surfaced about the ethics of the Biden family’s international business, and lawmakers contend that Biden’s son traded on his father’s position to win clients overseas.

Democrats charge that GOP lawmakers are wasting time on a witch hunt while they’ve failed to do their job governing. They’re pointing to inaction so far on issues at the top of voters’ lists of concerns, notably the economy, immigration and crime.

“Democrats want to promote a message that the Republican Congress is not dealing with issues, and they’ve got plenty of fodder for that argument,” said Jacob Rubashkin, analyst at the nonpartisan Inside Elections, which analyzes House races.

His group rates the Duarte and Garcia races toss-ups. Valadao’s race tilts Republican. Other nonpartisan analysts Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate all three of their districts as toss-ups.

Republican Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel also have California districts that Biden carried in 2020, but their races aren’t as close, according to the analysts. They rate Kim’s district as likely going for her and Steel’s race as leaning in her favor.

Democrats need a net gain of three seats to win control of the House after next year’s elections. Twelve seats are rating toss-ups, seven now held by Republicans — including four in more moderate-leaning New York — and five by Democrats.

Should the inquiry become an actual impeachment by the House — unless there’s strong evidence to oust him — Biden is unlikely to be tossed out of office. Conviction would take 67 votes in the Senate. Democrats control 51 seats.

Republicans forge ahead

Vulnerable Republicans have been cautious about proceeding any further. They generally agreed to go along with Wednesday’s vote by explaining it was a legal way to find out more about whether Biden was involved in any of his son Hunter’s questionable business affairs.

“This inquiry makes all investigative tools available to Congress so we can determine the facts and get answers on the allegations against President Biden and his family,” Valadao told The Bee before the vote. “Impeachment is one of the highest powers available to Congress and should not be taken lightly.”

Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump over the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. He is one of two still in Congress after many retired or lost re-election bids.

Valadao added, “Americans deserve transparency and accountability from their elected officials, and I will be closely monitoring the facts that come out of this investigation.”

Among those with seats regarded as safe, there was little reluctance about proceeding.

“We owe it to the country to get to the bottom of these allegations and it requires the House to objectively invoke its full investigation powers and lay all the faces before the American people,” said Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove.

“Congress has an obligation to approach serious accusations seriously and with this vote, we do so.”

Analysts saw little benefit for the Biden-district Republicans.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries set the tone.

“I wonder how my colleagues in New York and California, who were sent here to make life better for the American people, explain this vote,” he said during the House debate.

The vote, Jeffries said, is “a political hit job, a political stunt, political gamesmanship.”

“House Democrats will continue to put people over politics. The Do Nothing Republican Congress is wasting time doing the exact opposite,” he tweeted.

On the House floor, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, tied the impeachment effort to Trump’s bid for a second term.

“Donald Trump is once again seeking illicit help to his campaign by badgering Republicans to impeach Joe Biden, even without evidence of wrongdoing by President Biden,” said Schiff, who led the efforts to impeach Trump. Schiff is seeking a U.S. Senate seat from California.

Tired of impeachment?

In addition to Democratic criticism, voters also could be experiencing impeachment fatigue. The inquiry is the third in the last four years. Trump was impeached twice, though he was never convicted by the Senate.

“To voters, impeachment has become the new norm, so it may end up being met with a yawn from voters. That said, the Republicans from Biden seats would still probably rather not take the vote,” said David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The one way Republicans could benefit, of course, is if the inquiry turns up evidence Joe Biden was involved in his son’s business dealings. So far Republicans have come up with no solid evidence.

The vote Wednesday formalizes the process, allowing Congress to proceed as it did in 2019, when it conducted an impeachment inquiry into whether Trump improperly sought help from Ukraine against Biden, who was then about to run for president.

While it’s a political longshot that Republicans could benefit, it’s not impossible.

“My guess is that whatever comes out of this impeachment effort won’t be much of a factor in the fall. It is possible that the effort could produce something damaging to Biden, which is of course the whole point given that conviction is impossible to imagine based on what we know now,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball.