Housing Market Shows Signs of Seasonal Cooling Even as Historic Demand Continues

·9 min read

This Zillow Weekly Market Report includes housing market data as of the week ending Oct. 24

SEATTLE, Oct. 30, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- The housing market is showing signs of seasonal cooling after a scorching hot summer sales season that stretched uncharacteristically far into fall, according to Zillow's Weekly Market Report1. A nearly six-month acceleration of year-over-year list price increases stabilized this week at 11.7% above 2019. Buyers are quickly buying up what few homes are left on the market, with sales continuing to be dragged down somewhat by increasingly short inventory.

Buyer demand continues to push beyond seasonal norms

  • Newly pending sales are up 19.3% since this time in 2019, but slowed 1.5% since last week in the latest installment of a seven-week downward seasonal trend. In the first week of September, newly pending sales were up 23.8% year over year.

  • A lack of new inventory and seasonal slowing appear to finally be tempering record sales figures, but weekly pending figures are now similar to those from last April and July -- both of which are traditionally strong sales periods.

  • Houses are on the market for a median of 12 days before an offer is accepted, which is unchanged from the past two weeks. This is 17 days faster than last year -- another effect of strong demand pushing this year's home shopping season past its usual endpoint.

The inventory well keeps getting drier

  • The downward slide of inventory that began in late May continued, dropping 1.3% week over week and reaching 37.2% lower than at this time last year. The last time inventory grew year-over-year was at the end of July 2019.

  • New listings are down 3.7% from last year and 7.1% from the week prior2.

Sales price growth hits new high

  • A run of weekly list price increases that began in late April has finally flattened out, with median list prices holding steady at $346,080, and could begin to fall as soon as next week in a typical-though-late decline. List prices climbed from 2.8% above 2019 the week of Feb. 1 up to 11.7% year over year this week.

  • The median sale price was $288,225 in the week ending Sept. 12, up 11.4% since 2019 and up 0.2% week over week.

Would-be sellers are confident price growth is here to stay

  • A Zillow survey shows general life uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and precarious financial positions are the most common reasons people are waiting to list their homes for sale.

  • Nearly 40% of those planning to sell in the next three years anticipate a more favorable sale price if they wait, suggesting many homeowners don't feel pressure to list during today's buying frenzy in order to get a good price.

  • While soaring home prices bring challenges for buyers trying to save for a down payment, ultra-low mortgage rates are making monthly payments more affordable for those who can get into a new home.

Metropolitan Area*

Total For-Sale Listings - YOY

New For-Sale Listings - YOY

Newly Pending Sales - YOY

Newly Pending Sales - WOW

Median List Price - YOY

Median List Price - WOW

Median Sale Price - YOY**

United States

-37.2%

-3.7%

19.3%

-1.5%

11.7%

0.0%

11.4%

New York, NY

-19.6%

1.5%

56.2%

0.6%

15.2%

0.0%

5.6%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

-23.0%

20.0%

-0.6%

-5.4%

13.1%

0.0%

11.0%

Chicago, IL

-27.8%

8.8%

35.5%

-2.1%

8.3%

-0.4%

11.9%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

-35.8%

-19.8%

27.3%

-2.1%

5.3%

-0.3%

10.0%

Philadelphia, PA

-38.1%

4.7%

78.2%

6.7%

11.4%

0.1%

9.6%

Houston, TX

-30.0%

-8.9%

30.6%

0.5%

10.1%

-0.1%

7.5%

Washington, DC

-34.3%

-2.7%

90.6%

10.4%

8.3%

-0.8%

8.5%

Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL

-15.9%

-9.8%

20.4%

0.6%

2.3%

0.1%

14.7%

Atlanta, GA

-33.8%

-16.1%

10.3%

-1.2%

9.3%

0.0%

10.9%

Boston, MA

-32.0%

-7.5%

-20.8%

-8.4%

12.5%

-0.3%

12.1%

San Francisco, CA

-1.9%

23.0%

29.6%

0.7%

12.4%

0.0%

16.4%

Detroit, MI

-40.7%

-11.1%

34.5%

-1.8%

11.6%

-0.4%

9.8%

Riverside, CA

-46.4%

-6.9%

20.6%

2.7%

16.3%

0.1%

11.9%

Phoenix, AZ

-21.4%

-1.6%

26.0%

1.0%

10.6%

0.0%

12.1%

Seattle, WA

-29.6%

4.6%

18.0%

-4.3%

4.5%

-0.4%

10.8%

Minneapolis-St Paul, MN

-27.5%

-7.0%

29.1%

-1.8%

1.1%

-0.7%

10.4%

San Diego, CA

-34.8%

19.4%



9.5%

0.0%

11.6%

St. Louis, MO

-39.1%

0.5%

26.3%

-0.9%

4.8%

-0.5%

14.7%

Tampa, FL

-35.4%

-24.4%



10.3%

0.3%

11.6%

Baltimore, MD

-46.4%

-9.1%

108.5%

9.3%

3.2%

-0.6%

4.7%

Denver, CO

-37.7%

-3.1%

21.6%

-1.9%

5.9%

0.5%

8.3%

Pittsburgh, PA

-33.3%

-0.8%

17.4%

-1.8%

19.4%

-0.5%

4.6%

Portland, OR

-37.0%

5.8%

26.9%

0.6%

11.0%

0.5%

10.1%

Charlotte, NC

-47.4%

-17.2%

0.3%

-2.7%

9.9%

-0.3%

9.5%

Sacramento, CA

-42.2%

10.8%

20.1%

-0.9%

14.9%

0.5%

9.9%

San Antonio, TX

-29.4%

-14.1%

44.8%

0.8%

6.1%

-0.2%

10.8%

Orlando, FL

-19.5%

-27.4%



1.5%

0.0%

6.6%

Cincinnati, OH

-36.9%

4.3%

20.3%

0.9%

16.6%

-1.0%

12.5%

Cleveland, OH

-41.0%

0.8%

48.3%

-3.1%

3.9%

-1.3%

15.0%

Kansas City, MO

-42.3%

-5.7%

22.6%

0.6%

11.5%

-0.4%

12.1%

Las Vegas, NV

-23.6%

3.7%

17.9%

-0.7%

9.2%

0.3%

3.2%

Columbus, OH

-42.0%

-5.7%

11.3%

-2.7%

10.7%

0.3%

12.1%

Indianapolis, IN

-39.7%

-6.1%

19.2%

-3.2%

7.0%

-1.4%

12.3%

San Jose, CA

-12.1%

46.5%

-18.8%

2.7%

13.1%

-0.8%

14.7%

Austin, TX

-39.6%

-14.0%

26.0%

1.0%

23.6%

0.5%

14.6%

Virginia Beach, VA

-40.5%

24.2%



5.1%

-0.9%

8.8%

Nashville, TN

-30.2%

-17.2%



5.1%

-0.3%

6.7%

Providence, RI

-39.7%

1.3%

-11.9%

1.5%

4.3%

-0.2%

10.2%

Milwaukee, WI

-5.5%

4.9%



5.8%

-0.6%

10.6%

Jacksonville, FL

-41.9%

-12.5%

33.3%

0.6%

3.4%

-0.8%

6.0%

Memphis, TN

-45.1%

-16.5%

12.1%

-2.0%

3.5%

1.0%

19.9%

Oklahoma City, OK

-35.9%

-21.8%

31.3%

-0.1%

9.5%

0.0%

11.1%

Louisville-Jefferson County, KY

-43.9%

-12.0%

14.2%

-1.5%

-1.8%

-1.1%

14.2%

Hartford, CT

-40.7%

7.0%

49.8%

-0.3%

12.8%

0.0%

9.6%

Richmond, VA

-43.5%

-14.8%



16.6%

0.9%

7.7%

New Orleans, LA

-44.0%

-15.0%

23.3%

-2.4%

12.0%

0.1%

10.2%

Buffalo, NY

-40.5%

-24.4%

17.3%

-0.7%

6.6%

-1.6%

16.9%

Raleigh, NC

-43.8%

-3.6%

10.6%

1.3%

10.6%

0.0%

11.0%

Birmingham, AL

-33.3%

1.5%

40.7%

-4.5%

-1.5%

0.0%

4.8%

Salt Lake City, UT

-50.1%

-17.2%



10.9%

1.1%

12.7%

*Table ordered by market size
**Sale price data as of the week ending Sept. 12

1 The Zillow Weekly Market Reports are a weekly overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports are compiled by Zillow Economic Research and data is aggregated from public sources and listing data on Zillow.com. New for-sale listings data reflect daily counts using a smoothed, seven-day trailing average. Total for-sale listings, newly pending sales, days to pending and median list price data reflect weekly counts using a smoothed, four-week trailing average. National newly pending sales trends are based upon aggregation of the 38 largest metro areas where historic pending listing data coverage is most statistically reliable, and excludes some metros due to upstream data coverage issues. For more information, visit www.zillow.com/research/.

2 Due to changes in the set of listings included, there have been significant restatements to the New For-Sale Inventory metric from April to September 2020. Historical data is revised regularly to make the best use of the available data, and the current set is more representative of the market. This revision reflects a significant increase in the number of new listings that occurred during the summer, now showing a faster recovery in new listings nationwide.

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SOURCE Zillow