Hunter Biden case assured to hang over Joe Biden's 2024 campaign with special counsel

WASHINGTON − For President Joe Biden, the legal troubles of his son appeared to be going away last month when Hunter Biden's attorneys reached terms with prosecutors to resolve tax evasion and gun charges.

Then the deal fell apart.

Now, with Attorney General Merrick Garland appointing a special counsel Friday to investigate the criminal case, the legal drama over Hunter Biden is sure to hang over the entirety of Joe Biden's 2024 reelection bid.

Not only does the special counsel designation of David Weiss, the U.S. attorney in Delaware who has overseen the case for five years, signal a wider inquiry, the Justice Department also said in a motion Friday that it expects a trial over the charges already filed against Hunter Biden. The motion all but ensures a circus of television cameras outside a federal courthouse following the president's son just as the 2024 campaign will be in full swing.

"This is not good for the president," said Richard Painter, a law professor at University of Minnesota who was chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush. He said Republicans will stay fixated on Hunter Biden's legal problems even more so if former President Donald Trump, the GOP primary front-runner, becomes their nominee.

"Obviously, this is going to be made into a big issue in the campaign," Painter said. "Given the fact that Trump has been indicted three times and may be indicted a fourth time, the Republicans are going to grab for whatever they can."

How damaging is a special counsel probe for Joe Biden?

A federal judge in Delaware refused last month to accept a plea deal between Hunter Biden and prosecutors after the judge raised concerns about the terms of the agreement, including assurances Hunter Biden's legal team sought for immunity from any future criminal charges.

Had the judge accepted the plea agreement, it wasn't going to quiet Republicans who called the arrangement a "sweetheart deal" and accused Garland of politicizing the Justice Department. But it would have at least put Hunter Biden's legal ramifications to rest as Joe Biden, 80, seeks a second term while already facing questions about his age and lingering anxieties about the economy.

"It's not something any candidate would wish to have happen," said Todd Belt, professor and political management program director at George Washington University.

Still, Belt said, voters typically "disentangle" misbehavior of family from the candidate. And he said the appointment of a special counsel − in a possible matchup with Trump − may burnish Joe Biden's image as the candidate who adheres to the law even when his son is the target.

"In a weird way, it is actually beneficial in terms of how he would wage his campaign against Trump − the return to the Trump chaos versus normal function of government under Biden," Belt said.

Even before the special counsel elevation, the Republican-led House Oversight Committee had accelerated its investigation into Hunter Biden as they seek to tie actions from then-Vice President Joe Biden to his son's business activities as chairman of the Ukrainian energy firm Burisma.

Republicans have seized on testimony from Devon Archer, a business associate of Hunter Biden's, who said the president's son put his father on the speakerphone 20 times with his business partners present. But Archer said business was never discussed, and Republicans have yet to present evidence supporting their claims that Joe Biden accepted bribery payments.

Nevertheless, House Republicans have increasingly started talking about an impeachment inquiry.

"It clearly means that it's going to hang over the entire remainder of the election cycle," veteran Democratic campaign strategist Joe Trippi said. "But I think that was clearly going to happen in any case."

Biden allies point to polling that suggests most Americans are far less concerned with Hunter Biden than House Republicans. A majority of Americans, 58%, including 63% of independent voters, said Hunter Biden's legal problems won't influence their decision whether to vote for Joe Biden in 2024, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll in June.

Democrats are bullish on abortion access as a major driver for their base as well as suburban independent voters after last year's Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade. Voters in Ohio, which voted Republican in the past two presidential elections, overwhelmingly rejected a measure Tuesday that would have made it more difficult for voters to protect abortion rights via referendum.

Democrats also reject any conflation between the legal problems for Trump, who has been indicted for conspiring to overturn the 2020 election and withholding classified documents, and those of the president's son.

"The reality is, Trump is a former president who is running for president. Hunter Biden isn't on the ballot," said Trippi, a senior adviser for The Lincoln Project, a political group formed before the 2020 election to help defeat Trump. "And thus far, there's been no evidence tying (his business dealings) to Joe Biden."

Where Hunter Biden's case goes from here

House Republicans indicated the special counsel designation will not affect their congressional investigations into the overseas business dealings of Biden family members.

"This action by Biden’s DOJ cannot be used to obstruct congressional investigations or whitewash the Biden family corruption," House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., said in a statement. "House Republicans will continue to pursue the facts for the American people."

Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., chairman of the House Oversight Committee, slammed Garland's appointment of Weiss as special counsel, saying it is "part of the Justice Department’s efforts to attempt a Biden family cover-up" after his committee's "mounting evidence" he says has implicated Joe Biden.

"The Biden Justice Department is trying to stonewall congressional oversight as we have presented evidence to the American people about the Biden family’s corruption," Comer said.

Garland, as he announced Weiss' appointment from the Justice Department headquarters, made clear the Hunter Biden investigation remains open.

After the terms of his plea agreement unraveled in court, Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty last month to failing to pay more than $100,000 in taxes on $1.5 million in taxable income he made in 2017 and 2018. He faces a separate charge for possessing a firearm in 2018 as a drug user.

Prosecutors filed a motion Friday saying that the two sides are at an "impasse" and that the government expects the Hunter Biden case to go to trial. The Justice Department is seeking to move the case to either a federal court in Washington or California, which prosecutors argue would be the appropriate venues for the charges.

As special counsel, Weiss will have the authority to bring charges in any federal court he chooses.

For his part, Joe Biden has made no effort to distance himself from his son. “I’m very proud of my son,” he told reporters in June after Hunter Biden initially struck the plea agreement on the tax evasion charges.

Hunter Biden traveled with his father to Ireland in the spring. He has attended state dinners and sometimes joins his father and other family members for weekends at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland.

But it seems a good bet Hunter Biden, who made several appearances on the 2020 campaign trail for his father, will be less visible in 2024.

Painter said that he does not expect to see the president's son making campaign stops during his father's reelection bid. "I doubt it," Painter said. "I very much doubt it."

Reach Joey Garrison on X @joeygarrison.

Reach Miles Herszenhorn on X @mherszenhorn.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hunter Biden controversy set to hang over Joe Biden's 2024 campaign