Hunter Biden’s plea deal will not spare him from a withering 2024 spotlight

The plea deal likely to spare Hunter Biden a jail term will only fuel Republican Party fervor to purge the Justice Department – already a driving issue in the 2024 campaign as ex-President Donald Trump portrays himself as a victim of political persecution.

Top GOP leaders reacted with predictably orchestrated fury to the agreement reached between President Joe Biden’s son and the Justice Department, claiming he had benefited from a “sweetheart deal” despite the fact that the president had taken pains to separate himself from the case and that there is no evidence of political interference. Trump, who’s twice been indicted, wasted no time in claiming the Hunter Biden case shows that he has been unfairly targeted – even though many of his legal problems are worsened by his habit of resisting the justice system at every turn.

Under the arrangement, Hunter Biden will plead guilty to two tax misdemeanors and struck a deal with federal prosecutors to resolve a felony gun charge. Debate over the exact terms of the deal will likely play out until a federal judge finalizes the terms. As will the question of whether Hunter Biden’s conduct caused unnecessary political problems for his father or whether his family circumstances meant that his personal agonies and struggles with addiction played out on a far more public level than would have been the case for many people.

But the GOP reaction so far signals that the potential end of Hunter Biden’s legal troubles will not keep him out of the spotlight. He is set to play a starring role in the 2024 election as Joe Biden’s political enemies seek to weaponize his son’s legal struggles – those that are real and those that are hyped by conservative media. Top conservatives, including the GOP House majority and key committee chairs, are highlighting Hunter Biden’s legal woes and business career to try to portray the president as heading a “crime family.” Their intent is clear – to shield Trump, who is under intense legal pressure in multiple cases relating to his conduct before, during and after his presidency and is seeking to delegitimize the political and legal institutions that subject him to accountability.

Nevermind that many of the GOP efforts to leverage allegations against Hunter Biden have failed so far to produce evidence of wrongdoing by the president. And Joe Biden may have plenty of more salient issues complicating his reelection bid, not the least of which is his low approval rating.

Still, House Oversight Chairman James Comer said Tuesday the US attorney running the Hunter Biden case – a Trump appointee – would be invited to testify to one or more committees as the GOP carries out its own investigations into the president, signaling the GOP will work to keep the issue alive well into the campaign.

The GOP strategy on Biden probes

The GOP strategy is to try to portray Biden and his family as corrupt. And the idea that the Justice Department is stewing in political interference is central to the DNA of the Trump-era Republican Party – especially since Trump is now the first person who has been elected president to be indicted. He is facing federal criminal charges over his alleged mishandling of classified documents after he left office. He has also been indicted in Manhattan on charges of falsifying business records related to a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election. He has denied all wrongdoing in both cases.

Partly as a result of his legal troubles and also because of his false claims that he won the 2020 election, Trump is running for a second term promising a new presidency of “retribution.” This has forced his GOP primary rivals – who are aware of the powerful political forces that Trump is stirring in the GOP – to also call for top leadership in the FBI and the Justice Department to be flushed out. In this political moment, it doesn’t matter whether the claims that Hunter Biden got a soft deal and that Trump is being persecuted are true. Enough Republican voters in a party transformed by Trump believe this to be the case, giving such a narrative great resonance in the GOP.

Although Trump’s support among Republicans appears to have softened after his federal indictment, he still holds a clear lead in the primary field, according to a new CNN poll released Tuesday. The same poll found that even though most Americans approve of his indictment, 71% say politics played a role in that charging decision. That view is held by 92% of Republicans.

There are also then profound potential implications for America’s system of criminal justice and the notion that the Justice Department itself should be free of political interference. After all, seeking to discredit legal and political systems is a clear use of the playbook of dictators that fits in with Trump’s increasingly authoritarian mindset.

Republicans have long complained that the Justice Department is biased against Trump, dating back to the investigation into contacts between his campaign and Russia in 2016. Trump has such a storyline at the center of his campaign, but his complaints ignore the fact that, like in the case of the younger Biden, the allegations against him are the product of a legal process using established practices. The indictment against Trump in the classified documents case, for instance, emerged after a special counsel investigation using federal grand juries in Washington, DC, and Florida.

Hunter Biden’s attorney, Christopher Clark, said in a statement that the deal with federal prosecutors will “resolve” the Justice Department’s long-running criminal probe into the president’s son. US Attorney David Weiss had said in his statement that the investigation is “ongoing,” but it’s unclear if that refers to the case not being closed until signed off on by a judge or if there are outstanding matters.

The president’s political opponents have been trying to establish that Hunter Biden’s business career, including in Ukraine and China, has profited from his political connections and enriched other members of the president’s family. And they want to find out whether the Hunter Biden probe delved deeper into the family finances. There has been no evidence of wrongdoing by the president, however.

A political embarrassment for Biden

While Hunter Biden got an easier deal than many in the GOP hoped, his expected plea bargain represents a huge personal and political embarrassment for the son of a president running for reelection.

It also represents another twist in the tragic and turbulent life of Hunter Biden, who lost his mother and infant sister in a car crash and his beloved elder brother, Beau Biden, to brain cancer as an adult. The president said Tuesday he was proud of his son and has stood by him in what he says is an attempt to transform his life after battles with addiction.

It is in the nature of bitter, modern politics that Hunter Biden’s conduct provided ripe political ammunition for Republicans. This opening has been especially exploited as the GOP seeks to protect Trump and as his legal exposure has spiraled.

Trump on Tuesday was quick to blast the plea agreement as a little more than a speeding ticket even though Joe Biden kept in place the Trump-appointed US attorney to try to avoid accusations of political interference in his son’s case.

But House Speaker Kevin McCarthy downplayed Weiss’ role in the Hunter Biden probe and complained the Justice Department had treated the president’s son differently than it treated Trump.

When pressed repeatedly about the two cases having far different sets of facts, the California Republican insisted that there were different standards at play.

“Well, there’s no time for him to serve. Remember, they said no prison time but they’re trying to put President Trump in prison?” McCarthy told CNN. Despite the differences in the cases, he said: “You talk about equal justice here, and that’s the problem most Americans have.”

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