Will Hurd's 2024 candidacy assures Texas will remain a player in presidential politics

AUSTIN — Going back almost 64 years and 16 election cycles, there's only been one time that no prominent Texan was at least in the presidential race for at least some of the time.

But in the runup to the coming 2024 campaign, it looked for a while like Texas would be without an in-state favorite. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, despite coming in second during the Republican primary season of 2016, is focusing solely on his bid for a third term. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's name was often dropped, but then so was any conversation about him actually entering the field.

Now, former Congressman Will Hurd of San Antonio has upended that narrative, announcing his intent last month to seek the Republican nomination in what is shaping up to be a crowded field that's so far been dominated by former President Donald Trump.

But Hurd is something of an unlikely Texan to be seeking national office, at least compared with those who've elbowed their way to the presidential sweepstakes in past election years.

First, the highest elective office he's ever held is that of being one of 435 members of the U.S. House of Representatives, and only for three terms. Never once has he run for statewide office, nor has he mentioned any interest in doing so. And in his three successful races, he never once won an outright majority of the votes cast in his district.

And his path to politics steers clear of the iconic Texas industries of oil, ranching and corporate finance. Instead, he majored in computer science at Texas A&M University and later became an undercover CIA operative.

One of Hurd's steepest impediments to winning over Republican primary voters — either in his home state or around the country — is Beto O'Rourke. Why? Because back in winter of 2017 when O'Rourke was a Democratic congressman from El Paso, he and the Republican Hurd were unable to get a flight back to Washington while the airports were snowed under.

So they carpooled from Texas to D.C., and they livestreamed their 30-hour bipartisan road trip on sundry social media platforms, bringing each a fair amount of national publicity. They seemed to enjoy one another's company, and managed to get a little congressional work done as the miles flew by.

But while "playing well with others" might still be schoolyard virtue, bipartisan chumminess can be considered heresy for some primary voters in both parties. That old livestream footage means GOP opposition researchers will have fertile ground to plow if they want to paint Hurd a tool of the Democrats.

Another obstacle is Donald Trump. Hurd was not much of a fan of the former president's coziness with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and was at odds with him on other foreign policy matters. And Hurd is still not a fan.

“I’m not going to support Donald Trump," he said on CNN heading to the July 4th weekend.

More: Will Hurd criticizes Trump but opposes impeachment

For all his legal challenges, Trump still enjoys the affection of more likely GOP primary voters than anyone else, the early polls show.

It's still early in the '24 cycle, but it would appear that Hurd has a Texas-sized hill to climb if he's going to advance in the upcoming primary season.

And to close the loop that opened this piece, let's review the list of Texans over the decades who were trying then what Hurd is attempting now.

In 1960, Texas U.S. Sen. Lyndon B. Johnson wanted the Democratic presidential nomination. He came up short but was selected John F. Kennedy's running mate. LBJ successfully led the party's ticket four years later as president following the JFK assassination. And he was widely expected to seek a second full term in 1968 before bowing out in March of that year as Vietnam undercut his support.

The 1972 cycle is unique in modern politics in that no Texan from either party stepped forward. But four years later, U.S. Sen. Lloyd Bentsen gave it a try. He did pretty much every early candidate is supposed to do to succeed — except convince his fellow Democrats outside of Texas that he was their man.

In 1980, former Gov. John Connally faced the same poor luck, but in the Republican column. But another Texan, George H.W. Bush, ran second only to Ronald Reagan, and Reagan tapped Bush for VP. And did so again four years later.

Fast-forward to 1988, Bush successfully led the Republicans to a third straight term in the White House. That streak would end in 1992, likely helped by another Texan, business tycoon, H. Ross Perot. Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas won the big prize, and no Democrat has since come as close to he did to carrying Texas.

Sen. Phil Gramm in 1996 met the same fate as did Bentsen and Connally. But in four years, another Texas Republican, Gov. George W. Bush, ran the table. The former president's son repeated the feat in 2004.

In 2008, Surfside Congressman Ron Paul jumped in. But his loyal base of support was much too narrow, just as it was four years later when he tried again. And Gov. Rick Perry that year made what turned out to be an ill-advised run.

Perry tried again in 2016 with the same lack of success. But Cruz was also in the mix, and he came closer than anyone else to derailing what would become the Trump train.

That brings us to 2020 when O'Rourke and former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro each made a run for the Democratic nomination, and each was forced to retreat.

What does this mean for Hurd? Hard to say, but we'll likely know sometime after the summer of 2024 whether he ends up like Johnson and the Bushes, or like Bentsen, Connally, Gramm and the rest.

John C. Moritz covers Texas government and politics for the USA Today Network in Austin. Contact him at jmoritz@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @JohnnieMo.

This article originally appeared on Corpus Christi Caller Times: Why Will Hurd doesn't fit the mold of Texans who run for president