Hurricane center dials back odds Caribbean system will develop
A system in the Caribbean has a moderate chance of developing into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The trough of low pressure in the eastern Caribbean Sea has a large area of showers and thunderstorms that has diminished on Tuesday so the NHC dialed back its estimation the system could develop.
“Although environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for further development during the next several days while the system moves westward over the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea, a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week,” forecasters said.
No matter if it develops or not, it’s expected to bring heavy rains to portions of Central America by the end of the week.
The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two days and 60% chance in the next seven, down from a 70% chance prediction issued earlier Tuesday.
If it develops enough strength, it could become Tropical Storm Vince.
It would become the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season’s 22nd official system, which includes an unnamed subtropical storm that formed in January and 20 systems since the official start of the season on June 1.
Nineteen of those 20 grew to be named storms from the 21-letter list provided by the World Meteorological Organization, with only Vince and Whitney left before it would be necessary to spill over into a supplemental list that starts with the name Adria.
Only the years 2005 and 2020 had the need for more than 21 names from the initial list, which skips over the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z.
The end of the official hurricane season is on Nov. 30, although storms that form after that before the end of the calendar year would be included in the year’s official tally.
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