Hurricane center says odds for tropical system remain low as it moves over Central America
The area of interest over the southwest Caribbean has moved inland over Nicaragua and has a lower chance of development overnight, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Satellite images and radar show the presence of an area of low pressure that now has a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and a 20% chance in the next five days, according to the 2 a.m. update Thursday.
“Additional development is unlikely today while the low remains inland,” according to the NHC. “The system is forecast to move slowly northwestward and could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where some development is possible by Friday. Some development is also possible over the southern Bay of Campeche by early next week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and southeastern Mexico through the weekend.”
On Tuesday, NHC hurricane specialists had the odds at 30% and 40% between the next two to five days.
The NHC now predicts a very unlikely chance of the disturbance developing in the next two days as long as it remains over Nicaragua.
The disturbance, which was first identified Sunday evening, is still forecast to slowly develop this week if it returns to the Caribbean. It could emerge over the Gulf of Honduras where development would be possible Friday.
If the system develops into a tropical storm, it will take on the name Bonnie.
Earlier, the first storm of the year developed into Tropical Storm Alex, which formed from the remnants of the first Pacific storm of the year Hurricane Agatha, which passed over Mexico and into the Caribbean. After, the remnants shaped into what specialists called Tropical Cyclone 1. It later pushed large flood waters through South Florida while passing through the state and developed into Alex on June 5 after TC1 moved into the western Atlantic and soon fizzled away.
