Florida in the cone as tropical storm warnings issued for Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico

Much of the eastern Caribbean is under a tropical storm warning ahead of a disturbance that has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Fred within a day or so. South Florida is also in the seven-day cone.

As of Monday’s 11 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center gave the disturbance, labeled potential tropical cyclone six, a 90% chance of strengthening into a tropical depression in the next two days and predicted it could become a tropical storm by the time it approaches Puerto Rico late Tuesday afternoon.

It was about 40 miles east-southeast of Dominica with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

Along with the advisory came tropical storm warnings for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, including Culebra, and Vieques and a portion of the Dominican Republic.

Watches were in effect for Guadeloupe, Martinique, Dominica, Saba, St. Eustatius, portions of the Dominican Republic and for Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Gonaives.

Forecasters said the storm was moving west-northwest at 16 mph on Monday night, which puts it on track to reach the Lesser Antilles Monday night, Puerto Rico Tuesday evening and near the Dominican Republic and Haiti by mid-week. For Puerto Rico, still recovering from major hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, the biggest threat appeared to be flooding and mudslides from a predicted two to four inches of rain.

Tropical cyclone 6 could become Tropical Storm Fred.
Tropical cyclone 6 could become Tropical Storm Fred.

Craig Setzer, chief meteorologist at CBS4, tweeted that hurricane models show the storm potentially moving northwest over several large islands in the Caribbean, “which means very high uncertainty on intensity [and] Fla impacts.”

Despite the uncertainty of the potential storm’s path, most models appear to forecast a tropical storm at strongest, possibly from all the dry air between the system and Puerto Rico. The hurricane center’s latest projections show the storm’s winds topping out around 50 mph, at least 20 mph away from category 1 hurricane status.

Forecasters noted that as of Monday afternoon the disturbance didn’t have a defined center. Until that develops, forecast models tend to be less accurate.

“Exactly where the center forms will have some downstream implications on the exact forecast track, especially across the eastern Caribbean,” hurricane center forecasters wrote in the 5 p.m. update.

Jim Cantore, a meteorologist with the weather channel, tweeted out early images of the disturbance showing up on Barbados radar Monday morning and reminded viewers that possible Florida impacts will be easier to understand later in the week.

“Atmospheric pitfalls await 94L, but could see whatever it becomes or doesn’t come close to FL late week into weekend,” he tweeted.

If potential tropical cyclone six stays on its latest projected track, Florida could feel some gusty winds starting Friday mid-morning.
If potential tropical cyclone six stays on its latest projected track, Florida could feel some gusty winds starting Friday mid-morning.

Despite the uncertainty, the Miami office of the National Weather Service warned South Floridians that “widespread and heavy rain” could be possible over the weekend.

The hurricane center is also tracking another disturbance a few hundred miles east of the other one, but forecasters gave the second system no chance of strengthening in the next five days and noted that development is “no longer expected.”

Last week, NOAA revised its predictions for the 2021 hurricane season to include slightly more named storms — 15 to 21. Five named storms have already occurred.

Miami Herald staff writer Carli Teproff contributed to this report.