Hurricane center turns attention to Caribbean-bound system while Tropical Storm Gert, Katia hang on
The National Hurricane Center ceased tracking of Franklin, Idalia and Jose in the last two days while Tropical Storm Gert and Katia are not expected to linger too long. However, a system in the Atlantic that could be near the Caribbean by next weekend has increasing chances to form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.
As of the NHC’s 2 p.m. outlook, the tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic has an area of showers and thunderstorms southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that have become better organized since Saturday.
“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further development, and this system is expected to become a tropical depression around midweek,” forecasters said. “Additional strengthening is likely late this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.”
The NHC gives it a 50% chance to form in the next two days and 90% chance in the next seven.
Its path shows it potentially hitting the Leeward Islands by next weekend.
If it does gain named-storm status, it could become Tropical Storm Lee, the 12th named system of active 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
The NHC also began tracking a weather system expected to move off the coast of Africa in a few days and develop as a tropical wave.
“Environmental conditions could support some slow development starting midweek while the wave moves to the west-northwestward at about 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.
The NHC gives it a 30% chance to form in the next seven days.
In the last two weeks, the tropics have kicked up six named storms including the season’s first two major hurricanes, Hurricane Franklin and Hurricane Idalia.
Hurricane Idalia hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as a Category 3 major hurricane on Wednesday morning, then quickly moved into Georgia and the Carolinas before swinging by Bermuda as a post-tropical storm with gusts near 80 mph on Saturday. Just like Franklin, Idalia headed north into colder waters and lost its tropical characteristics.
Still hanging on Sunday is Tropical Storm Gert in the mid-Atlantic and Tropical Storm Katia near the Cape Verde Islands.
At 11 a.m., Tropical Storm Gert was located about 760 miles east of Bermuda moving north-northeast at 15 mph with sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 60 miles.
“A faster north-northeastward to northward motion is expected during the next day or so,” forecasters said. “No significant changed in strength is expected until Gert degenerates into a trough of low pressure by early Monday.”
“A faster northward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest as Gert begins to move around the circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia,” forecasters said. “Slight weakening is expected to begin today. Gert is forecast to dissipate tomorrow.”
At 11 a.m. Tropical Storm Katia was barely hanging on was located about 910 miles northwest of the Cape Verde Islands moving northwest at 7 mph with sustained winds of 40 mph. Its tropical-storm-force winds extend out 80 miles.
“This general motion with a gradual reduction in forward speed should continue through Monday. Katia is forecast to move little or drift toward the north on Tuesday,” forecasters said. “Gradual weakening should continue, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday.”
Katia is forecast to move little or drift toward the north on Tuesday,” forecasters said. “Gradual weakening should resume later today, and the system is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Monday.”
Neither Gert nor Katia are a threat to land.
