Hurricane forecasters update prediction for ‘above normal’ 2023 season
The peak of hurricane season is near, and in their most recent update, meteorologists with Colorado State University reiterated that the Atlantic this year will see “above normal” activity.
After twice updating their predictions to account for more severe storms, Colorado State forecasters are forecasting 18 named storms, including nine hurricanes. Four of those are expected to be major hurricanes. These numbers have remained consistent throughout the last two reports.
Forecasters said in Thursday’s report that this season’s hurricane activity will be about 130% of the average season. In contrast, last year’s hurricane activity was about 75% of the average season, with its three most memorable storms, Fiona, Ian and Nicole, devastating Puerto Rico and southwest and central Florida.
As the peak months of hurricane season approaches, there have already been five named storms in the Atlantic.
“The vast majority of tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin happens in the next three months,” Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a briefing Tuesday. Hurricane season is only beginning to “ramp up.”
The basis for Colorado State’s predictions comes in light of an unusual collision of two major weather events: the extremely warm water in the Atlantic battling with the tempering effects of El Niño.
Tropical and subtropical sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic are at “record warm levels,” according to the Colorado State report. Usually, an abnormally warm Atlantic exacerbates hurricanes, while El Niño has the reverse effect, reducing their activity.
“This year’s hurricane activity will be determined by the competition between the warm tropical North Atlantic and El Niño,” said oceanographer Sang-Ki Lee of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. But the Atlantic is warmer than NOAA’s models predicted in May, “so it seems that El Niño is on the losing side.”
Because of this unprecedented occurrence of opposing weather events, meteorologists are unsure how this will impact the hurricane season.
“Our analog seasons exhibited a wide range of outcomes, from below-normal seasons to hyperactive seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach of the Department of Atmospheric Science and lead author of the report. “This highlights the large uncertainty that exists with this outlook.
As of Thursday, no new disturbances in the Atlantic are expected for the next seven days, according to NOAA. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update its hurricane seasonal outlook on Aug. 10.
