Will Hurricane Ian hit Tampa and St. Petersburg? Here’s the latest forecast track

Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater are under a hurricane warning as Hurricane Ian is forecast to make landfall near Category 5 strength south of the region near Port Charlotte on Wednesday.

Hurricane Ian has been strengthening as the forecast track has shifted further south, potentially sparing Tampa Bay of its most serious impacts. But storm surge, damaging winds and heavy rainfall are still expected.

The west coast of Florida from south of Naples north to Tarpon Springs is under a hurricane warning. Hurricane, tropical storm and storm surge watches and warnings are in effect elsewhere on both coasts. A state of emergency is in effect for nearly the entire state as Ian tracks inland and over Central Florida.

Here’s the latest forecast track including the so-called “spaghetti models,” which show the range of possible tracks based on various computer models: