Hurricane Idalia forms as it targets Florida for Wednesday landfall

Hurricane Idalia formed Tuesday morning as it entered the Gulf of Mexico where the forecast predicts it will grow into a major Category 3 hurricane before striking Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 5 a.m. advisory, the NHC said the center of Hurricane Idalia had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and higher gusts located about 370 miles south-southwest of Tampa moving north at 14 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 15 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 160 miles.

“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” said NHC senior hurricane specialist Eric Blake.

Its projected path has the center making landfall in Florida’s Big Bend part of the Gulf Coast and heading inland between Gainesville and Tallahassee. Forecasters predict it will reach peak sustained winds of 120 mph with gusts up to 150 mph and storm surge that could top 12 feet.

“This is going to be a major hurricane,” said Gov. Ron DeSantis from the state Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee late Monday. “It’s likely to continue strengthening all the way until impact and it could have catastrophic storm surge in your area.”

DeSantis on Monday expanded his executive order declaring a state of emergency to 46 counties, up from 33 on Saturday. In Central Florida, it now includes Seminole, Lake and Volusia counties, but not Orange or Osceola.

A hurricane warning is in effect along the Florida coast from the middle of Longboat Key north to Indian Pass near Apalachicola that includes Tampa Bay as well as for the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas and on Florida’s Gulf Coast from Chokoloskee north to Longboat Key as well as west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach on the Panhandle. Tropical storm warnings also remain in effect for Cuba’s Isle of Youth and Florida’s east coast from Sebastian Inlet north to Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

A hurricane watch runs on Florida’s Gulf Coast from Englewood to Longboat Key while a tropical storm watch is in effect for the lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and on on the Southeast U.S. coast from Altamaha Sound north to South Santee River, South Carolina.

A storm surge warning is in effect for Florida’s Gulf Coast from Englewood north to Indian Pass including Tampa Bay with storm surge watches from Chokoloskee north to Englewood including Charlotte Harbor and on the Atlantic coast from the mouth of the St. Mary’s River to the South Santee River in South Carolina.

Storm surge was the driving force that led to the deadly effects of last year’s Hurricane Ian that made landfall in southwest Florida.

The NHC warned storm surge could hit from 8-12 feet between the Aucilla River near Tallahassee south to the Chassahowitzka River near Homosassa along Florida’s Nature Coast. Surge could hit 6-9 feet south of Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River near Tarpon Springs and north of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River in the Panhandle with lower surge threats in Tampa Bay, Southwest Florida and the Panhandle.

The storm is expected to move quickly over the state, but rainfall totals could still bring 4-8 inches with some areas with as much as 12 inches across ports of Florida’s west coast and the Florida Panhandle as well as southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas that could lead to urban and flash flooding.

Though Metro Orlando is not predicted to bear the storm’s brunt, the signs of a coming storm were clear Monday. Local governments set up sand bag sites, grocery stores stacked bottled water and other supplies, school districts canceled after-school activities, and city and county officials urged residents to make preparations.

Sumter County is under a hurricane warning while Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, Seminole and Volusia counties are all under a tropical storm warning.

The National Weather Service in Melbourne said parts of east Central Florida will see 2-3 inches of rain with some pockets hitting 4-5 inches, but also warning tornadoes could begin to form inland starting this afternoon with the threat continuing into Wednesday.

“From mid afternoon into tonight, the frequency and strength of outer bands from Hurricane Idalia will increase,” according to the NWS forecast. “The timing of peak impacts will be during this period.”

Tropical Storm Idalia: Central Florida braces for impacts, but likely to avoid direct hit

President Biden on Monday approved an emergency declaration and ordered federal assistance in responding to the storm. DeSantis had submitted a request for aid Sunday night to the White House.

DeSantis urged all Floridians to prepare for the storm’s dangers.

“We’ve got to stop focusing on the cone and look at all the areas that could be affected,” DeSantis said, noting that forecasts for Hurricane Ian kept changing and shifting further southward in the days before the storm made landfall last year, devastating the Gulf Coast. “You have time today and know what you need to do.”

Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie said the storm surge and winds are one concern, but that effects can be far-reaching.

“You will see isolated isolated tropical-storm-generated tornadoes. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible with more organized outer rain bands that move across the Florida peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday,” he said. “When we saw that, again in Hurricane Ian, the very first incident we had was an EF-0 tornado in Palm Beach County. So that was way far away from landfall when that happened.”

Already Monday, officials in Pasco and Pinellas counties on Florida’s west coast issued evacuation orders for some residents, including those living in mobile homes and RVs or in low-lying and flood-prone areas, according to the Tampa Bay Times.

The counties under DeSantis’ emergency order are: Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Duval, Flagler, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lake, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Nassau, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Johns, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Volusia, and Wakulla counties.

DeSantis said the state was prepped for reaction once the storm hits including more than 400,000 gallons of fuel staged and ready to deploy plus the activation of eight urban search and rescue teams and all of the state’s 5,500 National Guardsmen.

In addition, he said the state has deployed 247 of Elon Musk’s SpaceX Starlink units to boost internet access to first responders in regions hit hardest by the storm.

“We have another 529 staged in Central Florida. Those are ready to be deployed in impacted areas and to EMCs across the state as the need may arise,” he said.

As of 6 p.m. Monday, 38 school districts have announced school closures over the next two days, along with 10 state colleges and six Florida universities. Tampa International Airport is closing midnight Monday and St. Pete Clearwater International Airport will close at 3 p.m. Tuesday, the governor said at the press conference.

In anticipation of Idalia’s arrival, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection has closed 65 state parks along the western portion of the state’s peninsula and in North Florida.

Those destinations vary from Caladesi Island State Park in Pinellas County to Big Shoals State Park Columbia, which is nearly in the projected path of the storm.

Also closed are Cedar Key Museum State Park in Levy County, Devil’s Millhopper Geological State Park in Alachua County and Rainbow Springs State Park in Marion County. Go to FloridaStateParks.org/StormUpdates for a full list of closures.

The Florida Department of Transportation is securing the massive construction project along the Howard Frankland Bridge between Tampa and St. Petersburg across Tampa Bay.

The St. Johns River Water Management District is preparing for the northern half of its 18-county jurisdiction to be in the path of Idalia as a category one hurricane, bringing high wind and moderate rainfall.

Central Florida’s SunRail commuter rail service will be shut down beginning Tuesday in anticipation of stormy weather. The passenger train runs 61 miles from DeBary in Volusia County through Seminole and Orange counties and into Osceola County south of Kissimmee.

Suspending service is a lengthy task of securing gate arms at 126 road crossings and storing SunRail trains. Resuming passenger service also requires considerable effort, including inspection of track conditions.

Melissa Watson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said weather conditions will start to deteriorate Tuesday and into Wednesday as Idalia gets closer to landfall.

Central Florida residents should start making hurricane preparations and secure loose items outside of their homes and prepare for possible local floods and the possibility of tornadoes, according to meteorologists.

Watson said Orlando should be prepared to see strong wind threats between 39 mph and 57 mph, and rain, up to five inches with the heavier bands of rainfall.

“Exactly where the system goes, like the more eastward it shifts or the more westward it shifts, that will play a big factor into what our impacts will be here,” she said. “If it shifts eastward then those impacts will increase for east Central Florida.”

Kevin Spear and Jeff Weiner of the Sentinel staff contributed to this report.