Tropical Storm Idalia can spin faster because of climate change. How will it impact Columbus?
Last week, Tropical Storm Idalia didn’t even have a real name. It was just called “Ten” because it was the tenth storm to brew in the Atlantic this year.
Today, it’s in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, well on its way to becoming a hurricane and making landfall Wednesday as Florida and Georgia residents and officials prepare for high winds and heavy rain.
As Idalia swirls from 80-degree water off the coast of Cancun toward the 87-degree water near Florida’s west coast, it is picking up fuel and strength.
“Hurricanes enjoy warm environments, they are essentially giant heat engines,” Climate Scientist Daniel Gilford said. “The warmer the sea surface temperature, the more fuel to spin faster.”
Gilford is part of a team at Climate Central that will soon release a study that examines what weather trends can be attributed to climate change.
“It is difficult to say whether 1 degree C would mean in chance to up a category of a hurricane,” he said. “An incredibly rough estimate suggests that for every 1 degree C, it could increase a hurricane’s speed by 15 mph.”
Gilford also suggests that comparing what the sea surface temperature was last summer or the summer before isn’t an effective argument for climate change.
“Climate creeps more than it jumps out at you,” he said. “The climate influence is really looking at what things have changed since 30-40 years ago.”
It’s difficult to discern the impact of climate change on specific storms in real time. Climate science isn’t there, yet.
“What we can say with a lot of certainty is there is more water in the atmosphere,” Gilford said.
Last year, atmospheric scientist Kevin Reed at Stony Brook University prepared a study immediately after Hurricane Ian and found there was 10% more rain because of climate change.
The local impact
National Weather Service meteorologist Dave Nadler said Columbus can expect wind with gusts up to 25 mph Wednesday afternoon into the evening.
“Savannah will have storm surge and heavier rain [than Columbus] with gusts between 40-50 mph,” he said.
Columbus will see high humidity and some rain showers over the next few days. The city is a potential safe area for people who decide to evacuate that are in the path of the hurricane.
The Red Cross local chapter director, Adelaide Kirk has been monitoring Idalia since it was a “small blob” in the Caribbean late last week.
“We’ve pre-positioned supplies and teams across Florida and southern parts of Georgia,” Kirk said. “As of now we don’t feel there will be impacts in the Chattahoochee Valley.”
Kirk suggests folks considering evacuating or wanting to know more about emergency services download the ‘Red Cross Emergency’ app or call 1-800-RED-CROSS
“Anything can happen in the next 24 hours,” Kirk said.
Some local governments in Florida are beginning to mandate evacuations.
