Hurricane Lee drops to Category 3; forecasters predict no impact on South Florida
Hurricane Lee has lost some strength but remains a dangerous hurricane in the central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday.
South Florida is not expected to be impacted by the storm, which was churning about 350 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday morning as a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. It had been as strong as Category 5 with winds over 157 mph a little more than a day ago.
The storm will remain too far east for South Florida to feel any impacts, said Barry Baxter, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Miami. While communities in north and central Florida may experience swells and rip currents, Baxter said the same is not true of South Florida because it’s protected by the Bahamas, he said Saturday.
While initial forecasts of 180 mph winds have dampened, Lee is still expected to pick up intensity next week and remain a major hurricane as it moves closer to the U.S. mainland.
Highlights from 11 a.m. advisory
Maximum sustained winds have dropped to 115 mph, making it a strong Category 3 storm.
Swells generated by Lee have begun on the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread west. Dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the U.S. East Coast beginning Sunday.
Lee is expected to remain a powerful hurricane through early next week.
It is too soon to know what level of impacts, if any, Lee might have along the U.S. East Coast, Atlantic Canada, or Bermuda late next week, particularly since the hurricane is expected to slow down considerably over the southwestern Atlantic.
Spaghetti models show Hurricane Lee is expected to turn north next week, leading some communities in New England to begin making preparations.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Margot is strengthening over the open tropical eastern Atlantic, and it is expected to become a hurricane next week.
'Incredible': Hurricane Lee to pose 'extreme' risk at East Coast beaches
What impact will Hurricane Lee have on Florida?
While Lee is expected to remain east of Florida, the coast will still feel its effects from higher surf and a higher chance of rip currents, tweeted the National Weather Service, Melbourne.
AccuWeather forecasters said Florida should avoid a direct hit, "which will prevent Lee's high winds and flooding rain from reaching areas recently hard-hit by Idalia, including Florida to North Carolina."
Forecast path: Where will Hurricane Lee go?
It's too early to know exactly where Lee will turn and how strong it will be, AccuWeather forecasters said.
"Starting as early as Sunday, seas and surf will build to dangerous levels along the central and northern coast of Florida and expand northward through the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts next week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
Here's the latest update from NHC as of 11 a.m.:
Hurricane Lee down to a Category 3 storm
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 350 miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 115 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 12 mph
Pressure: 957 mb
Next advisory: 5 p.m.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
As of the 11 a.m. NHC advisory, the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 20.3 north, longitude 58.2 west. Lee is moving west-northwest near 12 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed beginning later Saturday and Sunday.
On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico into early next week.
Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts. Lee is a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Sampson hurricane wind scale. Little change in strength is expected Saturday, but gradual restrengthening is forecast to occur Sunday and Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 957 mb.
Hurricane Lee maximum sustained winds down to 115 mph
Prediction and timing of winds:
12 hours: 115 mph
24 hours: 120 mph
36 hours: 125 mph
48 hours: 130 mph
60 hours: 140 mph
72 hours: 140 mph
96 hours: 125 mph
120 hours: 120 mph
A Category 4 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph. A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm Margot
Location: 970 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Direction: west-northwest at 12 mph
At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Margot is located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 38.0 West. Margot is moving west-northwest near 12 mph.
A west-northwest to northwest movement is expected during the next day or so. A north-northwest to northward movement is forecast to begin by late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane early next week.
Tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1,004mb.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Swells generated by Hurricane Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and will spread west to the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas and Bermuda through the weekend. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are expected to begin along most of the U.S. East Coast on Sunday and Monday and worsen through the week.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from Tropical Storm Margot.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
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This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Hurricane Lee tracker, spaghetti models, forecast path toward US coast
