Hurricane Lee forecast to be near Category 5, TD 14 forms in Atlantic
Hurricane Lee is plowing its way through the Atlantic forecast to intensify with winds just shy of a Category 5 hurricane while the season’s next tropical depression formed projected to become a hurricane as well.
As of 11 a.m. Thursday, Lee had grown to a strong Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 105 mph and higher gusts, up from 80 mph six hours earlier. It’s located about 870 miles east of the Caribbean’s northern Leeward Islands moving west-northwest at 15 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend out 25 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extend out 90 miles.
“On the forecast track, the core of Lee will move north of the northern Leeward islands during the next few days,” forecasters said. “Rapid intensification is expected today and tonight. Lee will likely become a major hurricane later today. Lee is forecast to remain a very strong major hurricane through the
weekend.”
The NHC projects it will become Category 4 with 130 mph winds by tonight but continue surging with projected sustained winds of 155 mph and gusts of 190 mph by Saturday evening. That puts it 2 mph shy of Category 5 status.
“Many of the models are calling for remarkable rates of intensification, beyond rates normally seen with model forecasts,” said David Zelinsky with the NHC’s science and technology branch. “Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Lee beginning this evening and overnight, which should provide extremely useful information about Lee’s intensity during the coming days.”
The last Category 5 Atlantic hurricane was deadly Hurricane Ian in 2022. Before that were 2019’s Lorenzo and Dorian, 2018’s Michael, 2017’s Maria and Irma and 2016’s Matthew.
The cone of uncertainty keeps its center at sea, but the breadth of the storm as it intensifies could still affect the Leewards, U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, the NHC said.
“Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda this weekend,” forecasters said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.”
Early next week, the dangerous surf could be threatening the U.S. East Coast including Florida.
As far as its path beyond the NHC’s forecast, computer models agree it will make a major turn to the north and avoid a U.S. landfall.
It became the 12th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on Tuesday growing into the season’s fourth hurricane on Wednesday.
Since Aug. 20, the tropics have churned out eight named storms including Hurricane Idalia that struck Florida’s Gulf Coast as a major Category 3 hurricane last week and moved across Georgia and the Carolinas.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s most recent hurricane forecast predicts 14-21 named storms, of which 6-11 could become hurricanes, and 2-5 could become major hurricanes.
Hurricane Lee would be the season’s third major hurricane after Franklin and Idalia.
As for the rest of the tropics, the NHC began advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen at 11 a.m. while also keeping track of one more system.
TD 14 is forecast to become Tropical Storm Margot and grow into a hurricane by Sunday.
I was located 160 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands moving west-northwest at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.
“Gradual strengthening is expected during the next several days, and the depression is forecast become a tropical storm later today or tonight,” the NHC said.
It’s no threat to land.
Also in the northeast Atlantic, what is now Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin continues to produce showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles west-northwest of the northwestern coast of Spain, but have not become as organized.
“The system could briefly acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics later today while it moves northward and then meanders northwest of Spain and Portugal, but environmental conditions appear to become unfavorable for further development by tonight,” forecasters said,
The NHC gives it a 10% chance to develop in the next two to seven days.
