Hurricane Lee now a Category 5 storm. What can North Carolina expect?
Hurricane Lee is now a powerful Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph.
And it is expected to grow even stronger, with winds of 180 mph within the next 12 hours, according to the National Hurricane Center.
A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph. There is no Category 6 hurricane.
While it's too soon to know what impact Lee will have on Florida or the U.S., the National Hurricane Center said dangerous surf and rip currents are expected along most of the United States' East Coast beginning Sunday.
By 11 p.m. Thursday, Hurricane Lee had intensified by 80 mph over the past 24 hours. Only six Atlantic hurricanes since records have been kept have intensified by 80-plus hours within that time period: Wilma in 2005; Felix in 2007; Ike in 2008; Matthew in 2016; Maria in 2017 and Eta in 2020.
Farther east in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Margot, which is expected to become a hurricane over the weekend.
What impact will Hurricane Lee have on North Carolina?
It is still early to know what impact Lee will have on North Carolina.
"Most models turn Lee northward, but that doesn’t happen 'til mid-next week," tweeted the Florida Public Radio Emergency Network.
"This means at least small changes to the ultimate track are likely. So the U.S. east coast should prep for potential impacts. Never hurts to be ready!"
"Building seas and long period swells from Major Hurricane Lee over the west Atlantic are forecast to lead to deteriorating boating conditions over the coastal waters, and increase the threat of life-threatening rip currents and beach erosion through all of next week," said the National Weather Service, Melbourne.
AccuWeather forecasters said impacts from Lee could be felt from the Caribbean to the United States and as far north as Atlantic Canada.
"At the very least, a significant risk of dangerous rip currents is expected along the East Coast," said AccuWeather.
Monster in the making: Hurricane season forecast: Lee breaks record before it's even born
AccuWeather forecasters said there are still several track scenarios from the middle of next week through next weekend. The timing of when Lee takes a turn to the north will be the main factor in determining the exact impacts along the East Coast.
Many of the models indicate the hurricane is likely to head northward in the Atlantic, but not all. Any bump westward in the track could be disastrous for the Atlantic Coast anywhere from Florida to Nova Scotia, AccuWeather said.
As Lee approaches, the jet stream could determine the extent of the direct impacts in the United States. Based on the projected track, direct impacts such as heavy rain and high winds from Lee are not expected from Florida to the Carolinas. However, it could be a different story farther to the north, especially across New England, forecasters said.
If the jet stream swings eastward, it should help to protect all of the East Coast from feeling direct rain and high winds from Lee. In this scenario, Bermuda may endure more direct impacts instead.
However, if the jet stream is stronger, dips southward and stalls as Hurricane Lee approaches, the powerful storm could be pulled in close to the U.S. by steering winds during the middle and latter part of next week.
"Right now, the area in the United States that really needs to pay attention includes locations from the upper part of the mid-Atlantic coast to New England," AccuWeather Chief Broadcast Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
Weather models show a deep trough of low pressure over the eastern U.S. next week, and that dip in the jet stream "should turn Lee more to the north around this time next week," said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at Florida-based Weather Tiger.
What does Jim Cantore have to say about Hurricane Lee?
Beyond Sunday things get very interesting because steering is resetting in the larger scale atmosphere and how certain features evolve and interact is very important as to how #Lee interacts or doesn't with Bermuda and/or the eastern part of USA/Canada. So this tweet is all… pic.twitter.com/bk61fm8Hde
— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) September 7, 2023
"Is eastern North America in play? Absolutely, but its very likely we won't have some confidence for some tighter goal posts until next week. Regardless #Lee will be a dangerous and powerful hurricane as it decides its fate on North America," The Weather Channel meteorologist Jim Cantore tweeted.
Looking at models of Hurricane Lee into next week, Cantore tweeted:
"Some solutions into late next week (shown below) are too close to ignore. Some don't touch land. This is all common with something in the 7-10 day away range. Plus the simple fact that track errors go up rapidly after 5 days which would be this case for Lee, Any POTENTIAL USA direct impacts other than waves would likely be late next week at the earliest."
"Even though almost all of the ensemble blend members don't touch the USA, its all about the trends at this point versus actual individual operational model output," Cantore said.
"Therefore, lets watch how the some of these western players shake out. The farther west we go the harder it is to miss eastern North America. There is no reason to believe #Lee will weaken considerably over the next week."
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 5 a.m. Friday:
Hurricane Lee Category 5 storm and growing even stronger
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 630 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 165 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 14 mph
At 5 a.m., the center of Hurricane Lee was located 630 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands. For those tracking the storm, it's near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 53.5 West.
Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through early next week with a significant decrease in forward speed.
On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, theVirgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend and into early next week.
Maximum sustained winds based on data from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft have increased to near 165 mph, with higher gusts.
Lee is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening isforecast today. Fluctuations in intensity are likely over the next few days, but Lee is expected to remain a major hurricane through early next week.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb.
Hurricane Lee winds up to 165 and expected to hit 180 mph in 12 hours
Prediction and timing of winds:
12 hours: 180 mph
24 hours: 175 mph
36 hours: 165 mph
48 hours: 165 mph
60 hours: 160 mph
72 hours: 155 mph
96 hours: 150 mph
120 hours: 140 mph
A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
The National Hurricane Center said there is increasing confidence the core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands.
Tropical Storm Margot
Location: 460 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
Direction: west-northwest at 16 mph
At 5 a.m., the center of Tropical Storm Margot was located 460 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands. Margot is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through the weekend, followed by a turn toward the northwest early next week.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph, with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Margot is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb.
Weather watches and warnings issued in North Carolina
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane Lee strengthening. Will it impact coastal North Carolina?
