National Hurricane Center: Category 3 Hurricane Lee expected to stay away from Florida
Hurricane Lee restrengthened Sunday afternoon to a Category 3 storm, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 120 mph. Lee had weakened overnight to Category 2, with maximum sustained winds as low as 105 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Lee is forecast to strengthen over the next few days, then gradually weaken.
Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.
Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach portions of the southeast U.S. East Coast and are forecastto worsen and spread northward along much of the East Coast during the next couple of days.
Florida should be clear of a direct hit from Lee and AccuWeather forecasters believe the storm will either make landfall anywhere from New England to Atlantic Canada later next week or stay out at sea.
Highlights from 5 p.m. advisory
Hurricane Lee is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days.
On the forecast track, Lee is expected to pass well north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph with higher gusts.
Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible on Monday and Tuesday.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance is 954 mb.
Tropical Storm Margot is located about 990 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, with sustained winds of 50 mph. Margot is expected to gradually turn toward the north over the next few days. Gradual strengthening is forecast and Margot is likely to become a hurricane in the coming days, the NHC said.
What impact will Hurricane Lee have on Florida?
While Lee is expected to remain east of Florida, the coast will still feel its effects from higher surf and a higher chance of rip currents, the National Weather Service in Melbourne tweeted on Saturday.
"Starting as early as Sunday, seas and surf will build to dangerous levels along the central and northern coast of Florida and expand northward through the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts next week," AccuWeather meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.
Forecast path: Where will Hurricane Lee go?
Lee is expected to maintain a slow northwestward motion through Tuesday night, and slowly strengthen while passing well north of the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
The extent of Lee's impact on the mid-Atlantic coast and New England later next week will depend on the behavior of the jet stream, AccuWeather said.
Here's the latest update from NHC as of 5 p.m.:
Hurricane Lee restrengthens to a Category 3 storm
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 285 miles north-northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph
Movement: west-northwest at 8 mph
Pressure: 954 mb
Next advisory: 11 p.m.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Lee
Hurricane Lee maximum sustained winds at 120 mph
Prediction and timing of winds:
12 hours: 130 mph
24 hours: 140 mph
36 hours: 140 mph
48 hours: 130 mph
60 hours: 120 mph
72 hours: 115 mph
96 hours: 105 mph
120 hours: 90 mph
A Category 4 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph. A Category 5 hurricane has maximum sustained winds of at least 157 mph.
Hurricane Lee spaghetti models
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Tropical Storm Margot
Location: 990 miles west-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
Direction: north-northwest at 9 mph
Who is likely to be impacted?
Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, and Bermuda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Dangerous surf and rip currents have begun to reach portions of the southeast U.S. East Coast and are forecastto worsen and spread northward along much of the East Coast during the next couple of days.
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from Tropical Storm Margot.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Florida weather watches and warnings
Storm tracker
Excessive rainfall forecast
What else is out there?
Aside from Hurricane Lee and Tropical Storm Margot, the NHC is monitoring two systems.
Invest 97L: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a small area of low pressure, located a few hundred miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development during the next day or so as the disturbance moves slowly westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is forecast to merge with a larger tropical wave to its east in a couple of days and no further development is expected after that time.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
Tropical Wave: A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic just west of the coast of Africa is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during the latter part of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days…low…40 percent.
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane Lee update: Storm now Cat 3. Track path, spaghetti models
