Hurricane season update from Colorado State holds steady, forecasting above-normal year with 20 named storms
A bit of what can be considered good news emerged from Colorado State’s regularly-scheduled 2022 hurricane season update released on Thursday — nothing has changed from the June update.
The forecast remains 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, numbers that still reflect an above-normal hurricane season and “above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
A normal hurricane season is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
There have been three named storms so far this season: Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. Only Colin affected the United States as it scraped along the North and South Carolina coastlines last weekend.
Colorado State researchers said the probability for at least one major hurricane to make a landfall along the U.S. east coast, including Florida, is 50%; the average over a full season in the last century is 31%.
The probability for a major hurricane to make landfall along the entire U.S. coastline is 75% (the average for the last century is 52%).
Warm water is expected to be a catalyst for the storms.
“Most of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean now has above-normal sea surface temperatures,” Colorado State researchers said, “and the far eastern part of the subtropical North Atlantic is also warmer than normal. The current sea surface temperature configuration is typically associated with more active hurricane seasons.”
Colorado State’s initial hurricane outlook, issued in April, forecast 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Its updated hurricane outlook on June 2 called for 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.
The Atlantic hurricane season has been above average for six consecutive years, according to Philip Klotzbach, research scientist for Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project.
AccuWeather forecast six to eight hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes.
In May, NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration) forecast up to 21 named storms, six to 10 hurricanes with three to six major hurricanes.
This is considered a La Nina year, meaning conditions such as wind shear water temperature are forecast to be favorable for storm formation.
Traditionally, most hurricane activity is between mid-August and mid-October. The peak is Sept. 10, when storm-forming factors such as low wind shear and warm water temperature are at their optimal.
The 2020 season, the most active on record, had a record 30 named storms and 14 hurricanes, one off the record 15 established in 2005, while 2021, the third-most active season, had 21 named storms.
This is the first year since 2015 a named storm hasn’t formed prior to the June 1 start of hurricane season. The first tropical disturbance of the season moved over Florida’s Panhandle May 19. The first tropical wave rolled off Africa’s coast on May 8.
Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.
Chris Perkins can be reached at chperkins@sunsentinel.com.
