Hurricane season off to a slump, but could pick up steam
After two wild hurricane seasons in a row, the 2022 season is nearly a third in and looking fairly normal despite early predictions of another above-average year of hurricane production.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, AccuWeather and Colorado State University were among the most prominent entities predicting an above-average hurricane season. The NOAA called for 14-21 named storms. CSU’s estimated 17 and AccuWeather predicted 16 to 20.
So far, 2022 has three named tropical storms: Alex, Bonnie and Colin. Comparatively, by this time of the year, 2020 had nine named storms and a tropical depression — although that year is considered an outlier.
“We had a brief flurry in late June/early July with Bonnie and Colin, but it’s been dead since then,” said Hurricane specialist Philip Klotzbach, a CSU meteorology professor. “It looks to remain quiet for the next couple of weeks too, but there are signs that things should pick up as we head toward mid-August.”
He said July and early August can often be quiet even in busy seasons.
“It is important to remember that both 2020 and 2021 were super-busy compared with normal early on,” he said. “The 2020 season really never took much of a break, but 2021 also had a prolonged period between when Elsa became post-tropical on July 9 and Fred formed on August 11.”
Given NOAA records of storm seasons, three named storms (and no hurricanes) by Aug. 3 is what storm experts call typical. Average seasons have about 14 named storms and seven hurricanes in total. The first hurricane on an average season typically appears by Aug. 11.
The last two years saw record breaking storm production with 2020 becoming the busiest recorded hurricane season in the Atlantic’s history totaling 30 named storms, and 2021 earning the 3rd place trophy for busiest year with 21 named storms.
But just because the season has been off to an average start, doesn’t mean the rest of the season will be average or below, according to Eric Blake, the acting branch chief of the National Hurricane Center.
“It is just too early to say much,” he said.
In fairness to early predictors, the peak of hurricane season — mid-August to mid-October — has yet to come and is statistically the time where most storm production occurs. The 2021 season, for example, had five storms by the start of August.
As a result, it’s highly likely that 2022′s true colors will emerge after mid-August.
“[Over] 90% of the seasons overall activity usually occurs after [Aug. 3],” Blake said. “For example, 2004, one of the most active and destructive U.S. seasons on record, had zero storms by this date. And then in 2005, it was exceptionally busy with seven by now, and it continued. The correlations of June-July storms to the rest of the season is almost zero.”
Meteorologists detected signs of an above-average season earlier this year, such as: an ongoing La Niña likely to persist, very warm sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon.
Possibly contributing to this season’s average production, the Saharan Air Layer, or a massive plume of African dust drying out the tropics. The dust cloud settled over the Atlantic earlier this month and even settled over South Florida this week. African dust acts like a hurricane shield over the west Atlantic, choking off tropical production before it can begin.
Although the season has been in a bit of slump against expectations, it’s not been without casualties.
Before Tropical Storm Alex formed earlier in June, it started as a Pacific storm and struck Mexico as Category 2 Hurricane Agatha. The storm killed at least 11 people and an additional 32 are unaccounted for, according to the Yale University’s Climate Connection. In the Gulf, Alex brought huge damages with floods and mudslides, and killed at least four people. Then, Alex brought its flood waters to Miami leaving much of downtown and Little Havana under nearly a foot of water.
Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said the storm tested the system of drainage pumps the city has recently installed as climate change has increasingly made flooding an issue in the low-lying area.
“We moved the water off pretty quickly, but in some areas, obviously, it was really challenging,” Gelber said earlier this summer.
As of July 7, CSU updated its 2022 forecast but remained steadfast in its prediction of 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, numbers that still reflect an above-normal hurricane season and “above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”
Earlier this year, CSU also predicted a 69% chance of major hurricanes making landfall over the U.S. continent — years past have an average of 52%. As for Florida and the rest of the East Coast, those communities are facing a 45% chance of a major storm arriving on shore. The last century has averaged a 31% chance of doing so in those areas, CSU said.
On Thursday, the NOAA will issue its yearly August update of its outlook on the rest of the season, which ends Nov. 30.
