National Hurricane Center watches Hurricane Tammy make turn to the east, but conditions 'unfavorable'
Forecasters are tracking two systems in the tropics: Invest 95L in the Caribbean and Hurricane Tammy in the Atlantic, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricane Tammy has made a turn east and some forecast models show it meandering toward the coast of the United States, but forecasters believe the storm will jog back north and likely weaken from wind shear and dryer conditions.
Conditions are favorable for development of Invest 95L, which may become a short-lived tropical depression before it moves over Nicaragua Tuesday.
Hurricane Tammy is a Category 1 storm, with winds of 80 mph. The National Hurricane Center is predicting winds could increase within 36 hours before the storm begins to weaken as it heads north.
Heavy rains from Hurricane Tammy are lingering over portions of the Leeward Islands Monday.
The Florida Division of Emergency Management said while Tammy poses no direct threat to Florida over the next five to seven days ... ocean swells and breezy conditions from the distant system may begin to arrive along the East Coast as early as Monday evening and continue throughout the week."
Two names remain on the 2023 list of storms: Vince and Whitney. Hurricane season doesn't end until Nov. 30, although storms can and do form any time.
This season has been above the historical average when it comes to named storms. During an average hurricane season, 14 named storms form in the Atlantic basin, which covers the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
There have been 19 named storms so far in the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, along with a 20th unnamed storm that developed in January.
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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 a.m.:
Hurricane Tammy: Forecast path
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Location: 260 miles north-northwest of Anguilla; 1,069 miles east of West Palm Beach
Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph
Movement: north at 7 mph
At 11 a.m., the center of Hurricane Tammy was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 63.9 West. Tammy is moving toward the north near 7 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast or northeast is expected to begin later today and continue into Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph, with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so followed by weakening.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.
No watches or warnings are in effect in connection with Tammy at this time.
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Tammy
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What to know about spaghetti models: Where is Tropical Storm Tammy heading? This controversial graphic has answers.
Who is likely to be impacted by Hurricane Tammy?
Ocean swells and breezy conditions from Hurricane Tammy may begin to arrive along the East Coast of Florida Monday evening and continue throughout the week, according to the Florida Division of Emergency Management
Elsewhere, the forecast calls for:
Rainfall: Rain bands south of Hurricane Tammy are expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall across portions of the Virgin Islands and northern Leeward Islands today, bringing storm total maximum amounts to 12 inches in the Leeward Islands. The additional rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Surf: Swells generated by Tammy will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Key messages from the Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Tammy
Heavy rain from Tammy will remain possible over the British Virgin Islands and Leeward Islands through today. This rainfall may produce isolated flash and urban flooding, along with isolated mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Looking ahead: Maximum winds forecast for Tropical Storm Tammy
12 hours: 80 mph
24 hours: 85 mph
36 hours: 90 mph
48 hours: 85 mph
60 hours: 80 mph
72 hours: 70 mph, post-tropical
96 hours: 60 mph, post-tropical
120 hours: 50 mph, post-tropical
What else is out there and where is it?
Invest 95L: Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Spaghetti models: Track Invest 95L
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Nicaragua by early Tuesday.
Regardless of development, this system could produce heavy rains over portionsof Central America during the next couple of days.
Formation chance through 48 hours: medium, 60 percent.
Formation chance through 7 days: medium, 60 percent.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
Noaa
Embedded content: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?052051
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking Hurricane Tammy, Invest 95L in Caribbean. Tropics update
