Hurricane Zeta forms along a track toward storm-weary U.S. Gulf coast

Hurricane Zeta formed southeast of Cancun, Mexico, on Monday and the National Hurricane Center is warning residents along the U.S. Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle to prepare for yet another hurricane landfall.

If Zeta remains on its forecast track, it will be the record-breaking 11th named storm to make a U.S. landfall during the 2020 hurricane season, nearly all of them along the storm-ravaged Gulf coast.

The National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Zeta is likely to pass over the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico, which will move rapidly toward the U.S., with landfall expected Wednesday. The coastline from the western tip of the Florida panhandle to central Louisiana are in the forecast cone of uncertainty.

Zeta formed as a tropical storm in the pre-dawn hours Sunday south of western Cuba, only the second time in history a hurricane season has produced 27 named storms. The storm is expected to impact a large area from Mexico to Cuba and even Florida.

“Moisture from Zeta will bring rounds of heavy rainfall all the way from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula to areas as far east as South Florida through Tuesday,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Mike Doll.

In rain-battered South Florida, the one-two punch of recent king tides and heavy rainfall has already caused coastal flooding and rough seas for boaters. Although Zeta remains hundreds of miles from the state, a moist air mass stretching northeast of the storm was drenching South Florida, National Weather Service spokesperson Pablo Santos said.

“Given recent rains, particularly across eastern sections of South Florida, the region does not need much in the way of rain to experience flooding,” Santos said.

Street flooding was seen in parts of South Florida including Boca Raton, Boynton Beach, Davie, Fort Lauderdale, Oakland Park and elsewhere on Sunday.

According to the latest estimates, southern Florida and the Florida Keys could see 1 to 5 inches of rain over a 48-hour period, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.

How much rain South Florida gets will depend on the system’s movement in the western Caribbean, according to Chuck Caracozza, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami.

“Heavy rain is by far going to be the most widespread impact from Zeta in the United States,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Niki LoBiondo.

As of 8 a.m. Monday, Zeta had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving northwest at 9 mph about 175 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico.

On the forecast track, “the center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula later Monday, move over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday,” the hurricane center said.

“A storm system over Texas early next week should steer this system north toward the central or eastern Gulf Coast. This will also increase wind shear across the Gulf of Mexico, which may prevent further strengthening of the system,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski.

Zeta’s forecast path indicates an eventual landfall between Lafayette, La., and Pensacola, Fla., with the center of the track in the vicinity of New Orleans. The storm’s forecast has it as a tropical storm or low-end hurricane upon landfall on Wednesday afternoon.

The central U.S. Gulf Coast is expected to see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with up to 6 inches possible, in the days prior to the storm’s projected arrival on Wednesday.

“A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night from southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle,” according to the Weather Channel.

The National Hurricane Center’s advisory stated that Zeta will speed up Monday and churn northwest, followed by a faster northwestward motion on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles.

Meanwhile, meteorologists said a range from 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts up to 12 inches, is expected through Wednesday across parts of western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan Peninsula.

In response, a hurricane watch is in effect for Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Dzilam, including Cozumel. A tropical storm warning is in place south of Tulum to Punta Allen and west of Dzilam to Progreso.

The Cuban government has issued a tropical storm warning for the province of Pinar del Río in western Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The last and only other storm named Zeta was in 2005, when a system developed on Dec. 30, a month after the official end of hurricane season, and lingered into the first week of 2006.

If there is record-breaking next named storm, it would be assigned Eta from the Greek alphabet.

Here is the 2020 timeline of systems that have become at least a tropical depression:

Although both 2005 and 2020 had 27 named storms, a reanalysis of the 2005 season revealed a 28th system briefly became a subtropical storm far in the Atlantic on Oct. 4, 2005. That system was never named but because of it, 2005 technically still holds the title of busiest hurricane season on record — for now.

Even with five weeks to go, the 2020 hurricane season, a La Niña year that spawned three major hurricanes — Laura, Teddy and Delta — has been memorable for many reasons.

A record 24 storms were the earliest of previous seasons to be given their names.

A record 10 named storms have made landfall in the continental U.S., the latest being Hurricane Delta in October. The previous mark was nine storms in 1916, according to hurricane specialist Dr. Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University.

Never before has a hurricane named after a letter in the Greek alphabet made landfall in the continental U.S. This year, two hurricanes did just that: Beta hit just northeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, on Sept. 22 and Delta struck southwest Louisiana on Oct. 10.

Hurricane Delta became the strongest storm ever named after a letter in the Greek alphabet and became the fastest storm on record to intensify from a tropical depression to Category 4 hurricane.

Tropical Storms Arthur and Bertha formed before the June 1 start of hurricane season, marking only the second time in recorded history two storms have formed before the season began.

September was especially noteworthy, producing 10 named storms — a record for that month. The previous record for September was eight named storms in 2002, 2007 and 2010.

On Sept. 14, there were five tropical cyclones spinning at the same time, one away from the record established Sept. 11-12, 1971, according to Klotzbach. The Sept. 14 frenzy had Tropical Storms Paulette, Rene, Sally and Teddy as well as Tropical Depression 21, marking just the second time the Atlantic basin has had five or more storms at once.

Four days later, on Sept. 18, a record-tying three named storms formed in a six-hour span – Tropical Storm Wilfred (Eastern Atlantic), Subtropical Storm Alpha (near Portugal) and Tropical Storm Beta (Gulf of Mexico). The only other day to have three storms form was more than 100 years ago, on Aug. 15, 1893, according to Klotzbach.

October also has been active with four named storms, including Hurricane Epsilon, which was churning in the far-northeast open Atlantic on Sunday. The last time there were four or more named storms in October was 2005, when that month had six named storms, as well as that unnamed subtropical storm.

The 2020 hurricane season was predicted to be above normal by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in May, but updated in August to extremely active.

Colorado State’s Tropical Meteorology Project team issued its first forecast for the 2020 hurricane season on April 2, when it forecast 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes, an above-average season.

An average season, measured by standards established between 1981 and 2010, has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes, defined as a Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

While Florida south of the panhandle escaped virtually unscathed in 2020, Louisiana was brutalized by four named storms — Hurricanes Laura and Delta, and Tropical Storms Cristobal and Marco.

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