Hyde: What will define a successful season for Tua? | Commentary

As talks go, it wasn’t much. A minute, maybe two. It was hot on the practice field, and they’d worked two hours, and Tua Tagovailoa surely knew to keep his message short.

But for fans of symbolism and simple passing of torches, there was something to see after the third day of Miami Dolphins training camp Friday. Tua stood before the several dozen offensive players on the field and talked.

He has been given an authorized voice in his second year, as well as keys to the franchise. And for anyone who’s listened, he can talk like a cup of adrenaline. He sounds that good.

“It was a good talk about taking it day by day, stringing good days together,’' running back Jordan Scarlett said.

The leadership gene, Tua has.

The franchise quarterback gene?

That’s what we find out this season. He’s either about to take the keys and show his college talent translates to the NFL. Or the Dolphins will quickly turn in a different direction. Deshaun Watson (if charges clear up)? Aaron Rodgers? Russell Wilson? There will be options.

One thing we know about coach Brian Flores: He’s not a patient man. He fired an offensive line coach after four practices. He traded Minkah Fitzpatrick, now an All-Pro talent, after two games. He’s on his third offensive coordinator in three years.

Get the picture? You think he’d stay the course at quarterback if progress isn’t coming this year?

That said, the platform is all Tua’s now. Ryan Fitzpatrick was cleared out — meaning Tua won’t have to contend with a popular veteran quarterback. Chan Gailey was disappeared, too — meaning a successful offensive coordinator whose methods might not have meshed with Tua is gone.

Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller were added for more than their receiving speed. Fuller had one of the biggest separation rates from defenders in the NFL last year while Tua ranked sixth in passing into tight windows (a yard or less of separation), according to Next Gen Stats. See how that helps?

Tua also threw 39 percent of his passes to the slot receiver last year and averaged 6.6 yards an attempt, according to metric analyst Warren Sharp. That number is no outlier. Tua threw to the slot 40 percent of the time at Alabama. Most of the time in his final season there it was to Waddle, who averaged 12.2 yards a catch that year.

Add it all up and there’s a Pygmalion Theory in play starting at this season’s start. By saying Tua is The Man, the Dolphins hope he evolves into The Man.

The question then becomes: What is a a successful season for Tua? You can measure wins. That’s always how quarterbacks always are viewed - at least established ones. But there are many underlying numbers to measure a young quarterback’s progress as he moves from the first to a second season. Like:

— Yards-per-pass average. Tua ranked 31st among NFL quarterbacks at 6.3 yards per attempt. Fitzpatrick averaged about three yards more per attempt. Was it just the play-calling? Was it Tua, as he mentioned, learning to throw receivers open? Or him needing to know the playbook better, as he also said? The idea with these new co-coordinators seems to be a more downfield passing game. We’ll see. But 6.3 yards an attempt is pop-gun stuff.

— Deep balls. Tua completed 6 of 290 attempts last year over 25 yards. Three of them came in the season finale, a 30-point loss to Buffalo in which he threw 58 times against a Bills defense where many starters rested for the playoffs. In his 232 other attempts, Tua threw three passes for 25 yards or more. Blame it on his rookie year, receivers or play calls, if you want. It just has to improve drastically.

— Touchdowns-to-interceptions. It was 11-to-5 last year. That’s fine for a rookie starting roughly a half season. You expect a top-half NFL starter to throw at least 27 touchdowns in 17 games. The interceptions are crucial, too. Tua’s five last year were a healthy number — and a bit misleading. He had a second-highest eight interceptions dropped, according to Football Outsiders. If only half those are caught, his season looks different.

— Pocket passing. He ranked 31st against defenses that didn’t blitz, according to Football Outsiders. He ranked 34th against no pressure, via Warren Sharp. Get the picture? In the pocket, when asked to read defenses and find the right guy, he wasn’t good. Again, that should improve in a second year with an improved cast. Again, it better.

— Third-down passing. Tua completed 64.1 percent of all his passes. He completed 50 percent for a puny 4.7 yards on third down. Enough said.

— Accuracy. This was a considered strength at Alabama. It wasn’t his rookie year via metrics. Football Outsiders charted him as having the fifth-worst accuracy in the league. Only 66.9 percent of his passes were on target. Warren Sharp ranked him 37th in overall accuracy. In the red zone, he ranked 33rd. Was his accuracy at Alabama a product of having first-round receivers? Being more comfortable? Again, you expect it to change his second year.

The Dolphins took Tua in good part because he’s born leader. And you see that. You can’t help warm up to that. But words without deeds don’t work in sports. Does he have the matching talent to be a franchise quarterback? That’s what we see this season.

This offseason was all about helping him. One thing for sure: the Dolphins have bet big on him. Another thing: They won’t be overly patient if he doesn’t show good progress.