Ian is more organized and will strengthen to major hurricane in days, forecast says

Justin Mitchell
·2 min read
26

Tropical Storm Ian has maximum winds of 70 mph and is becoming more organized in the Caribbean Sea, the National Hurricane Center said in its 1 a.m. CST update on Monday.

Ian is near hurricane strength and remains on a path toward Florida, but the NHC says it’s still too early to tell exact landfall.

Here are some key highlights from the latest advisory and NHC discussion:

  • Cat 4: Ian is forecast to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm over the water in the Gulf. Conditions could weaken it before landfall, but it will still be very destructive for the areas in the cone and well outside of it.

  • Large storm: Ian is also forecast to have a large wind field. That means even if it stays out over the Gulf, damaging wind and rain could still affect the entire west side of Florida and inland. The Mississippi Coast and parts of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina are all in the wind field.

  • Track remains uncertain: The latest forecast from the NHC shifted a bit more east, but forecasters urge residents not to focus on the direct path of the storm. “It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame. Users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges.”

  • Rapid intensification expected: Hurricane Hunters from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi flew to survey Ian and found that the storm is developing an inner core and “significant intensification is likely to occur during the next couple of days.” Ian will likely become a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

  • 48 hours in the Gulf: The 1 a.m. CST track shows that Ian could spend up to 48 hours in the warm Gulf before landfall.

  • Watches and warnings: Western Cuba is under a hurricane warning and Havana and parts of central Cuba are under a tropical storm warning. Parts of southern Florida, including Key West, are under a storm surge watch.

The next updates from the NHC are at 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. CST.

Bradenton Herald reporters Ryan Callihan and Ryan Ballogg contributed to this report.