PA Could Run Out Of ICU Beds As Soon As Next Week, Experts Say
PENNSYLVANIA — While the coronavirus death rate remains lower than it was at the onset of the pandemic, the vast increases in cases has led to significantly more ICU bed usage across Pennsylvania this fall. And health officials warned this week that they're reaching maximum capacity at worrying speed.
ICU beds could no longer be available as soon as a week from now, according to data compiled by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, and cited by the Pennsylvania Department of Health.
“As our hospitals and health care system are facing greater strain, we need to redouble our efforts to keep people safe,” Gov. Tom Wolf said. “If our health care system is compromised, it isn’t only COVID-19 patients who will suffer. If we run out of hospital beds, or if hospital staff are overworked to the breaking point, care will suffer for every patient — including those who need emergency care for illnesses, accidents, or chronic conditions unrelated to COVID-19.”
Pennsylvania Department of Health data shows 826 ICU beds are in use statewide, out of a total of 1,044. That's already higher than the peak usage of ICU beds in late April, at around 770.
Projections from the IHME statistical model show the total number of needed ICU beds exceeding the total number available across the state as soon as Monday.
The model further projects the need increasing through the end of December, when an anticipated 2,099 ICU beds will be needed.
The curve slowly flattens by early March 2021, according to the projection.
In the past week, the number of COVID-19-attributable deaths has quadrupled, and the average daily case count is seven times higher than it was two months ago.
The IHME’s modeling also projects that if mitigation efforts are not adhered to, Pennsylvania could have more than 32,000 deaths from COVID-19 by Feb. 23, 2021 — that’s in just three months. With universal mask-wearing, those deaths can be reduced by half.
“As the Secretary of Health, I have issued a series of advisories and orders intended to help stop the spread during this critical time, to protect our hospitals, our health care workers and the lives of our fellow Pennsylvanians,” Dr. Rachel Levine said. “Our collective responsibility continues to be to protect our communities, our health care workers and our most vulnerable Pennsylvanians from COVID-19. That has not changed.”
In addition to increased ICU bed usage, modeling also shows the number of ventilators required nearly doubling between now and the end of December.
There were 6,669 additional positive cases of COVID-19 reported Tuesday, bringing the statewide total since the start of the pandemic to 321,070 cases. There have been 9,951 total COVID-19 deaths in Pennsylvania.
This article originally appeared on the Norristown Patch
