Hurricane Idalia poised to deliver a bigger blow to Tallahassee than Hermine or Michael
Though Tallahassee has been brought to its knees in the past by powerful storms, it has never been tested, at least in the modern era, by actual hurricane-force winds.
That could change Wednesday morning as Hurricane Idalia makes landfall somewhere along or nearby the Big Bend coast. Idalia is forecast to become a major hurricane, reaching Category 3 strength at least, with maximum sustained winds of 111-plus mph, by the time it hits land.
Winds are hardly the only concern from Idalia as it moves into the Apalachee Bay, which is prone to storm surge because of the shallow waters and unique shape of the coastline.
Depending on Idalia’s ultimate track, catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge of 8 to 12 feet could inundate a large swath of the coast along Apalachee Bay, not just eastern areas from previous forecasts.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee issued a hurricane warning on Tuesday for the Tallahassee area, meaning hurricane-force winds were possible.
“Hurricane force wind gusts in Tallahassee would be terrible,” said Don Van Dyke, meteorologist with the Weather Service. “Most of the power out, downed trees everywhere. And that's the really important advisory. That's the last chance to get that out there so people can finalize their preparations.”
Idalia could prove an unprecedented monster of a storm for the Big Bend. Since 1851, as far back as local weather records go, the Apalachee Bay, from Gulf County to Dixie and Levy counties, has never seen a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
By the same token, Tallahassee has never seen hurricane-force winds, at least in the modern era and by official measurements. Hurricane Michael in 2018 brought 71-mph gusts, just slightly below Category 1 strength. Hurricane Hermine in 2016 brought 64 mph gusts. Hurricane Kate in 1985 hit with 68 mph gusts.
Kelly Godsey, meteorologist with the National Weather Service, warned local officials during a Tuesday afternoon call with that Idalia could become a history-making storm, bringing unprecedented wind speeds and damage to Tallahassee.
“If the storm doesn’t make that northeastward turn that we see in the latest advisory from the Hurricane Center, then the center tracks a little bit further west,” he later told the Democrat. “And that brings the dangerous core of this hurricane very close to the Tallahassee and Leon County area.”
If that happens, Tallahassee could see hurricane force winds of 74 mph — and potentially higher. Godsey said Idalia could be approaching Category 4 strength, with winds of near 130 mph, when it makes landfall.
He said Leon County hasn’t seen hurricane-force winds since Kate, which brought Tallahassee to a stand-still in 1985 with power outages and downed trees. Though the record books, based on measurements at the airport, show Kate never hit hurricane intensity in Tallahassee, Godsey said parts of Leon County in fact experienced hurricane-force winds.
“We want folks to prepare that we could see sustained hurricane-force winds in Leon County,” Godsey said. “I think that’s the biggest message.”
In a potentially dire sign, the National Hurricane Center began tracking the distance between Idalia and Tallahassee in its 8 p.m. update.
'You can never be too safe'
Some residents in Tallahassee spent Tuesday rushing to finish last-minute preparations. There were long lines at several sandbag sites, but there were no reports of grocery stores or gas pumps getting mobbed or running out of key items like water.
Kenneth Surita was among dozens of people who came by the Northeast Branch Library for sandbags. He said he’s more worried about Idalia than past storms he endured in South Florida.
“You can never be too safe,” Surita said. “When you get too comfortable is when something is going to happen.”
Both Hurricanes Hermine and Michael led to prolonged power outages in Tallahassee. City officials said Monday that they were calling up more than 200 electric line workers to help if the grid goes dark.
Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger, said if Idalia's track continues to track west, Tallahassee could see wind gusts of 75 to 100 mph, "causing damage exceeding Hermine or Michael."
Mayor John Dailey and other local officials urged residents on Tuesday to get ready.
“Ladies and gentlemen, life is paramount,” he said. “Safety is paramount. Residents should prepare their households for the worst while we all hope for the best.”
Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or 850-599-2180.
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Idalia could be biggest hurricane to hit Tallahassee
