Hurricane Idalia to intensify to Category 4 by landfall, National Hurricane Center says
Hurricane Idalia rapidly intensified into a major hurricane overnight, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Catastrophic storm surge and destructive winds are expected in the Florida Big Bend region Wednesday morning when Idalia moves inland.
Idalia is expected to continue intensifying and be "an extremely dangerous Category 4 intensity" hurricane at landfall Wednesday, an update from the NHC said.
The system is expected to turn north-northeastward within the next 12 hours, make landfall along the northeastern Gulf coast, and then move northeastward to eastward on the southern side of a mid-level trough moving off the northeast U.S. coast.
After landfall, Idalia is expected to move near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in 24-36 hours.
A major hurricane is a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm or higher. A storm becomes a Category 4 hurricane when wind speeds reach at least 130 mph.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Idalia
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 46 counties, a broad swath that stretches across the northern half of the state from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast.
Jim Cantore, a longtime Weather Channel meteorologist, has become synonymous with Florida hurricane coverage, with residents pondering when and where he'll show up in the state.
Idalia forecast: Hurricane will bring catastrophic surge to Florida coast
More: Hurricane Idalia poised to deliver a bigger blow to Tallahassee than Hermine or Michael
Hurricane Idalia: What you need to know as Florida landfall nears
Location: 100 miles southwest of Cedar Key and 175 miles south of Tallahassee
Exact location: 28.3 N and 84.5 W
Maximum sustained winds: 120 mph
Movement: North at 15 mph
Pressure: 945 mb
Next advisory: 5 a.m.
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
At 11 p.m., the center of Hurricane Idalia was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.5 West, or 125 miles west of Tampa and 185 miles south of Tallahassee. Idalia is moving toward the north near 18 mph. A northward to north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late Wednesday and Thursday.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a major hurricane during the next few hours before it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles.
Live updates: Hurricane Idalia intensifies; 46 Florida counties under state of emergency
Watches and warnings issued for Hurricane Idalia
For an explanation of what the watches and warning mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane watch:
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina
Hurricane warning:
Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
Storm surge warning:
Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
Storm surge watch:
Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River, South Carolina
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, North Carolina
Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, North Carolina
Tropical storm watch:
North of Surf City, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
Tropical storm warning:
Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City, North Carolina
Weather alerts issued across Florida
Spaghetti models for Hurricane Idalia
Key messages from the Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Idalia
Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between the Wakulla/Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect.
Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina into Thursday.
Looking ahead: Positions and maximum winds forecast for Tropical Storm Idalia
12 hours: 130 mph on coast
24 hours: 80 mph inland
36 hours: 60 mph over water
48 hours: 60 mph
60 hours: 60 mph
72 hours: 50 mph
96 hours: 50 mph
120 hours: 50 mph
What impact could Hurricane Idalia have on Florida and what areas could be affected?
Storm surge: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3 ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida in a few hours, with tropical storm conditions spreading northward and westward through this morning.
Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida Gulf and west coasts.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina later today and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later today in the warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, and spread into North Carolina tonight and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in North Carolina by Thursday.
Rainfall: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts.
Surf: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the north-central Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible overnight from the coast of west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region. The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal Carolinas later today.
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge? Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking Hurricane Idalia, could reach Category 4 by landfall
