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IHSAA football sectionals: What to know, predicted winners for 2022 Class 4A tournament

Indiana high school football sectional play begins this week. We break down the Class 4A field with 10 numbers to know, predictions and more:

Defending champion: Mt. Vernon (6-3)

No. 1 team: New Palestine (9-0)

End of regular-season power rankings:A new No. 1 heading into tournament

10 takeaways from sectional draw: Whoa, the 1st round isn't messing around.

Five storylines

New Palestine Dragons take the field at the New Palestine vs Greenfield-Central high school varsity football game, Sep 23, 2022; New Palestine, IN;  at New Palestine High School. Gary Brockman-For Indy Star
New Palestine Dragons take the field at the New Palestine vs Greenfield-Central high school varsity football game, Sep 23, 2022; New Palestine, IN; at New Palestine High School. Gary Brockman-For Indy Star

>> First-round showdown: The two teams listed above, Mt. Vernon and New Palestine, meet right away Friday in the first round of Sectional 22 at Mt. Vernon. New Pal won the first meeting, 42-6, in Week 4 as Grayson Thomas ran for 186 yards and two TDs and Danny Tippit passed for 220 yards and three TDs. Mt. Vernon has five consecutive wins since then, though, averaging 49.8 points during that span.

>> A path to Roncalli vs. New Palestine: To be honest, I think most people who follow this class closely probably were already looking forward to a potential matchup between New Palestine and No. 2 Roncalli (8-1) by about Week 4. That possibility would not happen until the regional round, though. Roncalli will have to get through, most likely, No. 7 Mooresville (7-2) or Brebeuf Jesuit (5-3) in the Sectional 22 championship game.

>> Favorite in the north: The only team on the north side of the bracket ranked in the top-five is No. 3 NorthWood (9-0). The Panthers made it to the 4A state finals in 2016, losing to Roncalli 34-22. NorthWood is probably the favorite to do it again, coming out of Sectional 18. NorthWood would likely see No. 6 New Prairie (8-1) in the regional and potentially No. 7 Kokomo (8-1) or No. 9 Columbia City (8-1) in the semistate.

>> Don’t sleep on ‘em: Fourth-ranked East Central (7-2) lost only to Ohio power Cincinnati Moeller and to Roncalli — by two points, 21-19. The Trojans won a state title in 2017 and were a threat to win last year, losing 17-14 in the regional to Evansville Memorial. Junior Josh Ringer (1,409 rushing yards, 21 TDs) could be a Mr. Football candidate next year.

>> Toughest sectional: It is probably Sectional 21 with No. 2 Roncalli, No. 7 Mooresville and No. 10 Brebeuf Jesuit all ranked in the top-10. Lebanon (6-3) and Northview (6-3) are also solid programs. The other toughest are probably Sectional 22 with New Palestine, Mt. Vernon, Greenfield-Central (6-3) and Pendleton Heights (5-4) and Sectional 24 with No. 5 Evansville Reitz (9-0), Evansville Memorial (6-3), Jasper (6-3) and Boonville (6-3).

10 numbers

Mooresville Pioneers Nick Patterson (9) rushes onto the field Friday, Oct. 7, 2022, at Mooresville High School in Mooresville. The Mooresville Pioneers defeated the Martinsville Artesians in overtime, 37-31.
Mooresville Pioneers Nick Patterson (9) rushes onto the field Friday, Oct. 7, 2022, at Mooresville High School in Mooresville. The Mooresville Pioneers defeated the Martinsville Artesians in overtime, 37-31.

35: Mooresville senior quarterback Nick Patterson will be playing in his 35th game as the starting quarterback when the Pioneers host Lebanon in the Sectional 21 opener. Mooresville is 27-7 during that span. Patterson has carried a lot on his shoulders this year, passing for 1,767 yards and 21 touchdowns and running for 1,025 yards and 12 TDs. His season and career should put his name in the mix for Mr. Football.

Is Nick Patterson best QB in the state?'If anyone doesn't see that, they're crazy.'

2,237: The rushing yards for Roncalli senior Luke Hansen though nine games, which puts him second in the state behind Clarksville’s Robert Lamar, who has 2,407 yards. Hansen, running behind a big and veteran offensive line against one of the toughest schedules faced by a 4A team, has run for at least 100 yards in every game, more than 200 in seven games and more than 300 yards in three games. Hansen, who has 25 rushing TDs this season, should also be in the Mr. Football discussion.

3: The number of 1,000-yard rushing seasons for New Palestine’s Grayson Thomas, who still has a year left. Through nine games, Thomas has 1,305 rushing yards and 24 rushing TDs and is up to 3,694 yards and 57 rushing TDs for his career.

8: The number of years since New Palestine played in Class 4A. The Dragons won their first state title in 2014 and went on to win 5A state championships in 2018 and ’19 after moving up via the tournament success factor. Eight is also the number undefeated regular seasons in Kyle Ralph’s 10 years as coach.

4: Years since fifth-ranked Evansville Reitz (9-0) posted a winning record, which seems impossible. Reitz, a two-time state champion, has not won a sectional title since 2016. But the Panthers are back on the right track under coach Cory Brunson and will be favored to win Sectional 24. Senior Jonas Burnett has 1,204 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs.

1996: The best year to graduate from high school? Obviously. But also the last time Martinsville won a sectional title, when the Artesians were playing in 5A. Martinsville (6-3) will not be favored to win Sectional 23 with fourth-ranked East Central in the field, but coach Brian Dugger’s team should have a chance to play for a title against the Trojans.

427: Rushing yards Fort Wayne Wayne senior Lamarion Nelson had in a 55-30 win over Fort Wayne South Side in Week 5. Nelson, who also had seven touchdowns that night, has 1,411 rushing yards and 14 TDs this season. Wayne is just 2-7 with little chance to advance out of Sectional 19, but Nelson, a Junior All-State selection last year, has 3,413 rushing yards and 30 TDs for his career.

356: Coaching victories over 43 seasons for Mooresville’s Mike Gillin, who ranks third among active coaches behind Sheridan’s Bud Wright, who is the all-time state leader with 444 wins, and Russ Radtke at Knox (385 wins).

1: Teams that have won multiple 4A state championships since the six-class system started in 2013: Roncalli. The Royals won in 2016 with Bruce Scifres as coach and again in 2020 with John Rodenberg as coach. Eric Quintana is in his first season as coach at Roncalli.

0: Misses by Mooresville senior kicker Kenny Curry, who is 11-for-11 on field goals and 31-for-31 on extra-point attempts this season. Curry drilled a 37-yarder in the clutch to keep the game alive in a 37-31 win over Martinsville two weeks ago.

Mooresville High School senior Kenny Curry (8) kicks a field goal during the first half of an IHSAA varsity football game against Decatur Central High School, Friday, Sept. 16, 2022, at Decatur Central High School.
Mooresville High School senior Kenny Curry (8) kicks a field goal during the first half of an IHSAA varsity football game against Decatur Central High School, Friday, Sept. 16, 2022, at Decatur Central High School.

All of the 4A predicted sectional winners

Sectional 17: New Prairie. The Cougars reached the semistate last year, losing 20-14 to Northridge.

Sectional 18: NorthWood. The Panthers toughest challenger will be Northridge (5-4) or Logansport (7-2), seeing one or the other in the championship.

Sectional 19: Columbia City. The Eagles have one sectional title and that came in 1993.

Sectional 20: Kokomo. The Wildkats reached the 5A state finals in 2017 under Brett Colby. His son, former Kokomo quarterback Austin Colby, now coaches the Wildkats.

Sectional 21: Roncalli. The Royals are going for a fourth consecutive sectional title.

Sectional 22: New Palestine.

Sectional 23: East Central.

Sectional 24: Evansville Reitz. The Panthers would see Evansville Memorial (6-3) or Jasper (6-3) in the sectional championship.

Those results would set up some intriguing regional matchups in a balanced field, including the big one: Roncalli vs. New Palestine.

Call Star reporter Kyle Neddenriep at (317) 444-6649.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana football Class 4A playoffs preview: Storylines, predictions