IHSAA girls soccer Fab 15: Best-, worst-case sectional scenarios for Indy-area's top teams

IHSAA girls soccer sectionals are officially upon us, so with this week's Fab 15 we're taking a deep dive into each of the top teams.

Sectionals:Schedule, scores

1. Noblesville (13-1)

Previous rank: 1

Draw rating: 1 — Noblesville and Hamilton Southeastern should be on opposite sides of the bracket. Instead, they're situated in the same pod, with the Millers opening vs. Fishers. Oof.

Why they'll win Sectional 8: The Millers are loaded. They have a couple go-to scorers in Ava Bramblett and Meredith Tippner, a deep corps of midfielders (Atley Pittman, Lily Ault, Marit McLaughlin) and a defense — led by Lauren Adam, Nadia Zaborowski, Mia Brake and Tori Goodwin — that's allowed just five goals this season (opponents average just under three shots on goal per game). Noblesville is the team to beat until someone proves otherwise.

Worst case scenario: Noblesville has not lost in sectionals since 2018 when it lost to Fishers in penalty kicks. History repeats itself and the Tigers — who played the Millers tough on Aug. 31 (L, 2-0) — stun the state and beat their conference rival for the first time in four years.

Name to know: Bella Wyatt. The sophomore goalkeeper boasts a .900 save percentage and o.501 goals against average. She shut out both HSE and Fishers during the regular season, totaling 13 saves between the two games.

2. Hamilton Southeastern (13-2)

PR: 2

Draw rating: 1.5

Why they'll win Sectional 8: If it's Noblesville-HSE in the semifinals… The Royals felt like they let one get away when they met during the regular season, failing to capitalize on quality scoring chances and the Millers going a girl down late, en route to a 1-0 loss. Individually, Caroline Kelley (20 goals) and Tatum Coleman (14 assists) have been at another level this season, while the defense — headlined by seniors Taylor Cook, Cambree Hoener, Kamryn Hoyda and Makenzie Loftin, with junior goalkeeper Hailey Wade — has allowed just nine goals.

Worst case scenario: It's been a decade since Hamilton Southeastern last beat Noblesville (Oct. 6, 2012), but we're going radical here: 48 hours removed from its win over Noblesville, Fishers bounces its Mudsock rival in arguably the greatest game in series history. Less than a week into the tournament and the two best teams in the state are out. Let chaos reign.

Name to know: Mya Burow. The senior midfielder has appeared in all 15 games this season, registering an assist and playing a key role in HSE's defensive success.

3. Carmel (12-2-2)

PR: 4

Draw rating: 2.5 — The Greyhounds didn't get the bye, but they also won't have to play Zionsville, Westfield or North Central immediately. So at least there's that.

Why they'll win Sectional 10: The Greyhounds don't generate a ton of scoring (averaging about two goals per game), but they're very good defensively. They've shut out seven of their past eight opponents, with the lone exception being Noblesville (L, 3-1). That's a testament to defenders Clare Simmonds, Rylie Wilpolt, Anika Nelson and Kendall Young on defense and the goalkeeping tandem of Aubree Empie and Bethany Ducat (Ducat is out due to injury). One other note: Carmel has won five one-goal decisions.

Worst case scenario: Carmel's quiet offense catches up to it in the second round and it's ousted in extra time by either Zionsville or Westfield.

Name to know: Sophie Shepherd. A senior forward, Shepherd has already matched her career-high with six assists to go with three goals. She assisted on game-winning goals against Guerin Catholic and Chesterton, and scored the winner in a 1-0 win over North Central.

4. Zionsville (9-1-6)

PR: 3

Draw rating: 1.5 — Host Westfield will be a tough out in the opening round, but the Eagles scored three goals against them back in August, a season-worst for the Rocks.

Why they'll win Sectional 10: The Eagles have steadily improved following a run of three straight draws against quality opponents to start the year, and are 1-0-2 vs. the other top teams from the group (Westfield, Carmel and North Central). Meg Jacklin, Katie Chadwick and Grace Leriger are dependable scoring options for an offense that's gotten about 70% of its shots on goal.

Worst case scenario: Westfield roars back from its late-season stumble and upsets the Eagles on opening night.

Name to know: Karley Johnson. The senior defender is among the team leaders in minutes played, starring for a back line that's allowed just four goals over its past seven games.

5. Brebeuf Jesuit (13-2-3)

PR: 6

Draw rating: 2.5 — Brebeuf earned the bye, but Guerin or Chatard is a tough second-round draw.

Why they'll win Sectional 26: It's tough to find a weakness in Brebeuf, which is out-scoring its opponents 53-11 and has allowed multiple goals in a game just twice this season. The highly potent attack is headlined by junior Josie Studley, who has 14 goals (one off her career-high), and senior Mia Winters, who has goals in three of her past four games (11 total). Goalkeeper Sophie Payne has registered 84 saves and allowed just two goals over her past six appearances.

Worst case scenario: Guerin is super dangerous; Chatard is coming in on a wave of momentum after winning the City Tournament. Both teams played Brebeuf tough during the season, surrendering goals in the first half, then shutting it out in the second. They break through in the rematch, dealing Brebeuf its first 2A loss since semistate.

Name to know: Aly Arena. The freshman ranks third on the team with seven goals and 24 shots. She has four goals in her past six games.

6. Center Grove (12-2-2)

PR: 5

Draw rating: 0 — Center Grove and Bloomington South are the best teams in their sectional. So naturally they'll play in the opening round. I wanted to give this a negative rating, but I will not compromise the integrity of these entirely arbitrary ratings.

Why they'll win Sectional 14: The high-powered Trojans have shined through a tough schedule, demonstrating a flair for the dramatic (see: last-minute wins over defending state champion Homestead and Roncalli) and ability to hang with some of the state's best (Carmel, Bloomington South). Center Grove is also getting healthier, with senior Kayli Farmer returning from a pre-season injury (she scored a goal in her second game back).

Worst case scenario: In many ways, the "worst case" is already upon us with the Trojans paired against Bloomington South (13-1-2) on Tuesday. The random draw is a dumb way to decide playoff brackets.

Name to know: Emily Karr. The fourth-year varsity player has scored a team-high 11 goals, with tallies against Homestead, Roncalli, Castle and Bloomington South.

7. Bishop Chatard (13-2-1)

PR: 7

Draw rating: 0 — No bye and a first-round rematch vs. Guerin, with the winner advancing to face powerhouse Brebeuf. Oof.

Why they'll win Sectional 26: Confidence. This time last year, Chatard was coming off its first loss of the season, a 3-0 loss to Cathedral in the City championship. The team's coming from a different place this season, having bounced back from a 2-0 loss to Evansville Memorial with city wins over Heritage Christian and Cathedral. Put simply: The Trojans are in a much better place. Missouri commit Bri Buels is a game-changer at striker with a trio of playmakers around her in Reese Sochacki, Cece Leffler and Addison Duncan.

Worst case scenario: It's a brutal draw, you guys. Chatard and Guerin went double OT when they played at the start of September, and Brebeuf is among the area's best, regardless of class.

Name to know: Briana Buels. Go watch her play in person if you have the chance.

8. Fishers (10-4-2)

PR: 13

Draw rating: 0 — Fishers' path to the final runs through the top two teams in the state.

Why they'll win Sectional 8: The Tigers have gotten on a bit of a roll following a four-game losing streak midway through the season. They've won six of their past seven (6-0-1) since dropping a 2-1 decision at HSE, a run which includes triumphs over Mt. Vernon and Guerin Catholic. Freshman Elsie May had six goals in five games entering the final two of the regular season; senior Anna Pettitt, who is part of a defense that's allowed 10 goals this year, is second on the team with seven goals, including the game-winner vs. Guerin. Fishers is deep and appears to have found its stride at just the right time.

Worst case scenario: Fishers manages to upset Noblesville in the first round, but runs out of gas vs. the rival Royals, who coast to an easy win.

Name to know: Lilly Touhy. The midfielder is part of a small, but dependable senior core. Statistically, she's tallied three goals and four assists.

9. Guerin Catholic (7-7-2)

PR: 11

Draw rating: 0 — This bracket is nonsense.

Why they'll win Sectional 26: The Golden Eagles' record needs context. Back in 2A, they have played the toughest schedule in the class per MaxPreps. Of their seven losses, only one — a 4-1 decision vs. South Bend St. Joseph — was by multiple goals. Put another way: Guerin's played a murderer's row of teams and held its own (one-goal losses to Carmel, Brebeuf, Chatard). Sutton Worman and Alex Soucie have both reset their career-highs in goals scored; sophomore Mia Gatz leads the team in assists.

Worst case scenario: I'll rehash the Center Grove scenario. We're already in it with this bracket.

Names to know: Sarah Kiffmeyer and Lauren Gardner. The senior team captains anchor that stellarly stingy Guerin defense.

10. North Central (11-4-3)

PR: 10

Draw rating: 5

Why they'll win Sectional 10: North Central has the pieces to compete with the other top teams in its sectional — Sammie King is among the state's top scorers, with Sara Jacobi and Gianna Alazar joining her on the attack — but its chances are certainly bolstered by its positioning in the bracket. Not only did the Panthers receive the bye, they'll also only have to face one of: Carmel, Westfield and Zionsville. They're in a great spot to win their first sectional title since 2016. One more note: NC will be at full strength with senior goalkeeper Maryn Weiger cleared for the start of sectionals. She had been sidelined since Sept. 19.

Worst case scenario: The Panthers, who scored one goal vs. Franklin Central and were shut out by both Brebeuf (loss) and Fishers (tie) at the end of the regular season, are unable to rediscover their scoring touch in the championship match and drop a 1-0 decision in extra time.

Name to know: Brinli Helms. The senior defender has gone the full 80 minutes in all 18 games she's appeared in this season and — if Weiger is unable to return for the championship game — she, along with the rest of the backline, will be critical to the Panthers advancing to the next round.

11. Cathedral (8-4-4)

PR: 8

Draw rating: 4.5 — Docking the draw a half-point here because Cathedral didn't get the bye.

Why they'll win Sectional 43: Cathedral boasts one of the best defenses in the state, anchored by senior goalkeeper Kate Phillips and center back Anna Spellacy. Two of only three seniors in the program, they've shined for a Fighting Irish team that's allowed 14 goals over 15 games — and four of them came in a season-opening loss to Noblesville (only team to score more than two on Cathedral). They were very good in the City finals vs. Chatard, blanketing Buels and limiting her chances to low-danger areas. The offense averages just over a goal per game, but that's not a huge factor with Phillips in net.

Worst case scenario: Cathedral is the heavy favorite coming in, but if a high-scoring team like Lawrence North is able to sneak in an early goal or two, they may be able to pull the massive upset.

Name to know: Amya Usher. An attacking outside back for the Irish, Usher showed her defensive chops against Chatard, shadowing Buels through most of the game.

12.  Park Tudor (14-1-1)

PR: 12

Draw rating: 5 — The draw got this one right with Park Tudor and host Heritage Christian on opposite sides of the bracket.

Why they'll win Sectional 43: The Panthers are really good. Their lone loss came in the Marion County semifinals vs. Brebeuf — they were in that one until the bitter end — while their draw was to 2A contender Chatard. They haven't played quite as tough a schedule as Heritage Christian, but they beat the Eagles head-to-head. Also, it just seems like a bad idea to bet against Gretchen Farley, who's among the best in her class (10 goals, 15 assists, 12 steals) and has a strong supporting cast with leading scorer Dejanae Butler, Eleni Pantzer and Katie Hur.

Worst case scenario: This sectional runs through the defending Class A champs and after managing to contain Abby Foulk and Kya Crooke the first time around, the dynamic duo catch fire and lead the battle-tested Eagles back to regionals.

Name to know: Dominae Butler. The junior defender is credited with 48 steals on the season. She had eight against both Heritage Christian and Brebeuf. As a team, Park Tudor has allowed just seven goals this year.

13. Westfield (6-6-4)

PR: 9

Draw rating: 0

Why they'll win Sectional 10: The Shamrocks proved capable of competing with the state's best over a stretch in mid-September wherein they tied Cathedral and Brebeuf, 1-1, and handed HSE its second loss of the season, 1-0. They don't have a prolific offense (25 goals scored), but aside from a 4-1 loss to Avon in the regular-season finale, they didn't give up too many in the month of September (averaged about one per game entering the Avon game).

Worst case scenario: The Shamrocks ended the season with a draw vs. Brownsburg, followed by losses to Carmel and Avon. The downward trend continues against a Zionsville team that beat them 3-1 when they played during the regular season.

Name to know: Kate Pallante. If Westfield goes on a run, it will most likely be because of Pallante in net. The junior goalkeeper is certainly capable — she was credited with 20 saves vs. HSE and logged 17 vs. Brebeuf three days later.

14. Mt. Vernon (10-5)

PR: NR

Draw rating: 3.5 — The Marauders open against rival New Palestine, but they received the bye and won't have to face East Central until the championship game.

Why they'll win Sectional 12: Mt. Vernon has a trio of talented attackers in leading scorers Ady Wong and Mattie Isger, plus sophomore Kylie Brandes who leads the team in assists. It has beaten New Palestine 11 straight times, with this year's win coming via penalty kicks. It's also worth noting the Dragons arrive on a two-game skid, with the losses coming by a combined score of 7-0.

Worst case scenario: After falling painfully short in their past couple meetings, the Dragons finally break through and oust their rival in the opening round of sectionals.

Name to know: Kylie Brandes. The sophomore leads the team with nine assists, plus eight goals, and has stepped up in some critical spots, most notably against New Palestine when she accounted for MV's lone goal.

15. Heritage Christian

PR: 14

Draw rating: 5 — The Eagles got the bye AND avoided Park Tudor's side of the bracket. That's a win-win.

Why they'll win Sectional 43: The defending Class A champs are battle-tested, having played a regular-season schedule that included Chatard (twice), Brebeuf, Park Tudor, Guerin, Roncalli and Greenfield-Central. Leading scorer Abby Foulk moved to midfield and has established herself as an excellent two-way talent (22 goals, 10 assists), with standout striker Kya Crooke (20 goals) bolstered by junior Koryn Marshall, and sophomores Zaria Winston (10 goals, five assists) and Joslyn Marshall (six assists) on the attack.

Worst case scenario: HC has not beaten Park Tudor since 2017. A loss to the Panthers in the sectional final runs the streak to eight.

Name to know: Joslyn Marshall. The sophomore forward ranks second on the team with six assists, while her two goals came against Brebeuf in late August.

Follow Brian Haenchen on Twitter at @Brian_Haenchen.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana high school girls soccer: Sectional preview for top teams