Imagine Owning Abano Healthcare Group (NZSE:ABA) While The Price Tanked 54%

The nature of investing is that you win some, and you lose some. Unfortunately, shareholders of Abano Healthcare Group Limited (NZSE:ABA) have suffered share price declines over the last year. To wit the share price is down 54% in that time. We note that it has not been easy for shareholders over three years, either; the share price is down 47% in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 30% in the last 90 days.

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Check out our latest analysis for Abano Healthcare Group

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Unfortunately Abano Healthcare Group reported an EPS drop of 13% for the last year. This reduction in EPS is not as bad as the 54% share price fall. So it seems the market was too confident about the business, a year ago. The P/E ratio of 10.07 also points to the negative market sentiment.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NZSE:ABA Past and Future Earnings, May 23rd 2019
NZSE:ABA Past and Future Earnings, May 23rd 2019

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Abano Healthcare Group, it has a TSR of -52% for the last year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

Abano Healthcare Group shareholders are down 52% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 17%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4.9% over the last half decade. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before forming an opinion on Abano Healthcare Group you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on NZ exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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