Imagine Owning Kewal Kiran Clothing (NSE:KKCL) And Wondering If The 46% Share Price Slide Is Justified

Simply Wall St

For many investors, the main point of stock picking is to generate higher returns than the overall market. But the risk of stock picking is that you will likely buy under-performing companies. We regret to report that long term Kewal Kiran Clothing Limited (NSE:KKCL) shareholders have had that experience, with the share price dropping 46% in three years, versus a market return of about 19%. And more recent buyers are having a tough time too, with a drop of 31% in the last year. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 22% in the last three months. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

Check out our latest analysis for Kewal Kiran Clothing

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the unfortunate three years of share price decline, Kewal Kiran Clothing actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 5.8% per year. This is quite a puzzle, and suggests there might be something temporarily buoying the share price. Or else the company was over-hyped in the past, and so its growth has disappointed. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The company has kept revenue pretty healthy over the last three years, so we doubt that explains the falling share price. We're not entirely sure why the share price is dropped, but it does seem likely investors have become less optimistic about the business.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NSEI:KKCL Income Statement, August 19th 2019

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. You can see what analysts are predicting for Kewal Kiran Clothing in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Kewal Kiran Clothing, it has a TSR of -43% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market lost about 10% in the twelve months, Kewal Kiran Clothing shareholders did even worse, losing 29% (even including dividends). However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 8.1% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before forming an opinion on Kewal Kiran Clothing you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on IN exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.