Imagine Owning New Toyo International Holdings (SGX:N08) And Wondering If The 29% Share Price Slide Is Justified

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In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term New Toyo International Holdings Ltd (SGX:N08) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 29% over a half decade. Furthermore, it's down 11% in about a quarter. That's not much fun for holders. This could be related to the recent financial results - you can catch up on the most recent data by reading our company report.

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View our latest analysis for New Toyo International Holdings

In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

Looking back five years, both New Toyo International Holdings's share price and EPS declined; the latter at a rate of 33% per year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 6.6% compound annual share price fall. So the market may previously have expected a drop, or else it expects the situation will improve. With a P/E ratio of 47.60, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SGX:N08 Past and Future Earnings, May 20th 2019
SGX:N08 Past and Future Earnings, May 20th 2019

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. In the case of New Toyo International Holdings, it has a TSR of -3.4% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

The total return of 4.6% received by New Toyo International Holdings shareholders over the last year isn't far from the market return of -4.6%. So last year was actually even worse than the last five years, which cost shareholders 0.7% per year. Weak performance over the long term usually destroys market confidence in a stock, but bargain hunters may want to take a closer look for signs of a turnaround. Before forming an opinion on New Toyo International Holdings you might want to consider the cold hard cash it pays as a dividend. This free chart tracks its dividend over time.

But note: New Toyo International Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on SG exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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